298  
FXUS02 KWBC 270701  
PMDEPD  
 
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
300 AM EDT SUN MAR 27 2022  
 
VALID 12Z WED MAR 30 2022 - 12Z SUN APR 03 2022  
 
...A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PRESENTS A MID-LATE NEXT WEEK  
HEAVY RAIN/SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOCUS ACROSS THE SOUTH WHILE  
HEAVY SNOW/ICE AND HIGH WIND THREAT FOCUS ACROSS THE UPPER  
MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES...  
 
   
..GUIDANCE EVALUATION/PREDICTABILITY ASSESSMENT
 
 
A COMPOSITE OF REASONABLY WELL CLUSTERED GUIDANCE FROM THE 18 UTC  
GFS AND 12 UTC ECMWF/UKMET/CANADIAN ALONG WITH THE 01 UTC NBM  
SEEMS TO OFFER A RUN TO RUN CONSISTENT FORECAST WEDNESDAY- INTO  
FRIDAY THAT ENJOYS GOOD GEFS/NAEFS/ECMWF ENSEMBLE SUPPORT. THE 12  
UTC ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN SEEMS BEST IN LINE BEST IN LINE WITH WPC  
CONTINUITY HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND, SO HAVE ADJUSTED NBM  
GUIDANCE TOWARD THIS GUIDANCE. LINGERING GUIDANCE DIFFERENCE IN  
THIS TIME FRAME CONCERNS UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFICATION BACK OVER THE  
WEST AND SUBSEQUENT DOWNSTREAM FRONTAL WAVE WEATHER IMPACT WITH  
EJECTION DOWNSTREAM BACK OVER THE SOUTH. OVERALL, THE  
ECMWF/UKMET/CANADIAN AND ECMWF/CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEANS STILL  
DEVELOP A MORE AMPLIFIED EASTERN PACIFIC UPPER RIDGE THAN THE  
GFS/GEFS MEAN. THIS ALLOWS FOR DEEPER TROUGH DIGGING BACK INTO THE  
WEST LATE NEXT WEEK.  
   
..OVERVIEW AND WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS/THREATS
 
 
AS A MAIN SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE PLAINS STRENGTHENS  
AND TRACKS NORTHEAST, INCREASINGLY WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH HEAVY  
DOWNPOURS AND A THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE  
SOUTH INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE SPREADING OVER THE  
SOUTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC THURSDAY. A "SLIGHT" RISK AREA REMAINS  
DEPICTED ON THE WPC EXPERIMENTAL MEDIUM RANGE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL  
OUTLOOK (ERO) FOR WEDNESDAY GIVEN FAVORABLE SYSTEM INGREDIENTS AND  
ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS. MEANWHILE, RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO  
EXPECTED FARTHER NORTH FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE EAST  
WITH WAVY FRONTAL PROGRESSION ACROSS THE REGION.  
 
ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD, EXPECT A SWATH  
OF HEAVY WINTRY MIX AND ACCUMULATING SNOWS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST  
TO THE GREAT LAKES INTO WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY GIVEN MODEL CONSENSUS  
ON DEVELOPING A RATHER INTENSE CYCLONE. IN ADDITION, HIGH WINDS  
APPEAR TO LIKELY IMPACT NEAR AND WELL TO THE WEST OF THE LOW TRACK  
GIVEN THE IMPRESSIVE RATE OF CYCLOGENESIS. SOME WINTRY  
PRECIPITATION IS ALSO FORECAST FOR NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND IN THIS  
FLOW.  
 
LATE WEEK, ADDITIONAL UPPER TROUGH ENERGIES FORECAST TO DIG WITH  
SOME UNCERTAINTY SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THROUGH  
THE WEST COULD PROVIDE ANOTHER OPPORTUNITY FOR AN ENHANCED ROUND  
OF WINTRY WEATHER, MAINLY FOR THE NORTHERN TO CENTRAL  
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST/ROCKIES TO THE HIGH PLAINS. POTENTIAL SYSTEM  
AMPLITUDE AND PROGRESSION INTO NEXT WEEKEND WOULD FAVOR RETURN  
MOISTURE FLOW INTO AN INCREASINGLY WAVY/LIFTING FRONT. THIS MAY  
SUPPORT RENEWED HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL ACROSS THE  
CENTRAL/EASTERN GULF COAST STATES AND SOUTHEAST NEXT WEEKEND.  
 
KONG  
 
ADDITIONAL 3-7 DAY HAZARD INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON THE WPC  
MEDIUM RANGE HAZARDS OUTLOOK CHART AT:  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST500_WBG.GIF  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST_WBG_CONUS.GIF  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/5KM_GRIDS/5KM_GRIDSBODY.HTML  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/DAY4-7.SHTML  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/WWD/PWPF_D47/PWPF_MEDR.PHP?DAY=4  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HEAT_INDEX.SHTML  
 

 
 

 
 
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