630  
FXUS02 KWBC 290657  
PMDEPD  
 
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
257 AM EDT TUE MAR 29 2022  
 
VALID 12Z FRI APR 01 2022 - 12Z TUE APR 05 2022  
   
..GUIDANCE EVALUATION/PREDICTABILITY ASSESSMENT
 
 
THE WPC MEDIUM RANGE PRODUCT SUITE WAS PRIMARILY DERIVED FROM A  
COMPOSITE OF BEST CLUSTERED GUIDANCE FROM THE 12 UTC GFS/ECMWF AND  
GEFS/ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS ALONG WITH THE 01 UTC NATIONAL BLEND OF  
MODELS DAYS 3-5 (FRIDAY-SUNDAY). EMBEDDED SMALLER SCALE SYSTEM  
DIFFERENCES AND AMPLE RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY VARIANCES REMAIN  
PROBLEMATIC DESPITE REASONABLY SIMILAR LARGER SCALE PATTERN  
EVOLUTIONS. OPTED TO BLEND JUST THE GENERALLY COMPATIBLE ENSEMBLE  
MEANS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK TO MITIGATE THE LESS PREDICTABLE FORECAST  
COMPONENTS AMID STEADILY GROWING FORECAST SPREAD. OVERALL, WPC  
PRODUCT CONTINUITY IS REASONABLY MAINTAINED WITH THIS STRATEGY AND  
THE FORECAST SEEMS IN LINE WITH A SIMILAR COMPOSITE OF NEWER 00  
UTC GUIDANCE.  
   
..OVERVIEW AND WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS/THREATS
 
 
A DEEP CYCLONE WILL EJECT ACROSS A STORMY EASTERN CANADA FRIDAY AS  
HIGH WINDS AND SOME WRAPPING SNOWS PERSIST TO THE LEE OF THE GREAT  
LAKES AND ACROSS THE NORTHEAST ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE CYCLONE. A  
TRAILING FRONT WILL SWEEP OFF THE EAST COAST, BUT SHOULD STALL AND  
LINGER OVER FLORIDA, THE GULF OF MEXICO/GULF COAST AND INTO  
NORTHERN MEXICO.  
 
UPSTREAM, A SERIES OF PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGHS AND FRONTAL  
SYSTEMS FORECAST TO DIG WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY THROUGH THE WEST  
LATE WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK COULD EACH PROVIDE AN OPPORTUNITY  
FOR PERIODS OF MODEST WINTRY WEATHER ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL  
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST/ROCKIES. SYSTEM PROGRESSIONS DOWNSTREAM WITHIN  
AN EMERGING SOUTHERN STREAM MAY MEANWHILE FAVOR MODEST  
PRECIPITATION FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MIDWEST TO THE  
APPALACHIANS/MID-ATLANTIC, BUT DEEPER RETURN MOISTURE FOCUS INTO  
WAVY FRONTS AND A STALLED LEAD FRONT OFFERS POTENTIAL TO FUEL SOME  
HEAVY DOWNPOURS FROM THE GULF COAST TO THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE  
WEEKEND.  
 
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK THERE IS ALSO A GROWING GUIDANCE SIGNAL TO  
BRING MORE ENERGETIC PACIFIC JET FLOW TOWARD THE WEST COAST. THIS  
MAY TRANSPORT DEEPER MOISTURE TO FUEL AND EMERGING PRECIPITATION  
PATTERN FOCUS INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO INCLUDE HEAVY TERRAIN  
ENHANCING SNOWS.  
 
SCHICHTEL  
 
ADDITIONAL 3-7 DAY HAZARD INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON THE WPC  
MEDIUM RANGE HAZARDS OUTLOOK CHART AT:  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP  
 
WPC MEDIUM RANGE 500MB HEIGHTS, SURFACE SYSTEMS, WEATHER GRIDS,  
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION, EXPERIMENTAL EXCESSIVE RAINFALL  
OUTLOOK, WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK PROBABILITIES AND HEAT INDICES ARE  
AT:  
 
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST500_WBG.GIF  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST_WBG_CONUS.GIF  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/5KM_GRIDS/5KM_GRIDSBODY.HTML  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/DAY4-7.SHTML  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=ERO  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/WWD/PWPF_D47/PWPF_MEDR.PHP?DAY=4  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HEAT_INDEX.SHTML  
 

 
 

 
 
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