076  
FXUS02 KWBC 291905  
PMDEPD  
 
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
303 PM EDT TUE MAR 29 2022  
 
VALID 12Z FRI APR 01 2022 - 12Z TUE APR 05 2022  
   
..GUIDANCE EVALUATION/PREDICTABILITY ASSESSMENT
 
 
THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME RUN TO RUN DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING  
AND STRENGTHEN OF INDIVIDUAL FEATURES OVER THE NEXT WEEK. AS A  
WHOLE, THE GENERAL PATTERN HAS AN INITIAL LOW EXITING ACROSS THE  
EAST WITH MULTIPLE WAVES DIGGING ACROSS THE WEST THAT ARE WELL  
CLUSTERED. TODAY'S SUITE OF PRODUCTS PRIMARILY USED A COMBINATION  
OF THE ECWMF/GFS AND THEIR RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLE MEANS; WITH AN  
INITIAL WEIGHTING OF 60/40 DETERMINISTIC TO ENSEMBLE MEANS TO  
ENDING WITH 100% ENSEMBLE MEANS. THIS REDUCED SOME OF THE NOISE  
AND FOLLOWED CONTINUITY.  
   
..OVERVIEW AND WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS/THREATS
 
 
A DEEP CYCLONE WILL BE LIFTING THROUGH EASTERN CANADA FRIDAY WHICH  
WILL ALLOW PERSISTENT HIGH WINDS AND AREAS OF WRAPPING SNOW IN THE  
WAKE OF THE LOW, PRIMARILY EAST OF THE GREAT LAKES AND THE  
NORTHEAST. THE TRAILING FRONT FRONT THIS LOW WILL MOVE OUT OVER  
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WITH THE SOUTHERN EXTENT SLOWING/STALLING OVER  
THE SOUTHEAST U.S, THE GULF AND INTO MEXICO. SCATTERED TO  
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED NEAR THE FRONT, PARTICULARLY  
ACROSS FLORIDA AND THE GULF COAST THROUGH SATURDAY AND THEN WILL  
TAPER OFF.  
 
ACROSS THE WEST, A SERIES OF UPPER TROUGHS AND LOW PRESSURE  
SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED TRACK THROUGH WITH VARYING DEGREES OF  
UNCERTAINTY WITHIN THE MODEL GUIDANCE. THESE SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED  
TO BRING AN INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL FOR THE PACIFIC  
NORTHWEST AND MODEST SNOW FOR THE NORTH-CENTRAL INTERMOUNTAIN  
WEST/ROCKIES. THERE IS A GROWING TREND FOR SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD  
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS AS THE  
SYSTEMS EXIT INTO THE CENTRAL U.S. BEFORE SPREADING TO THE  
MID-ATLANTIC/APPALACHIAN REGION BY THE END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.  
MODERATE RAINFALL WILL LIKELY MATERIALIZE WITHIN THE DEEPER RETURN  
MOISTURE AS IT FOCUSES INTO WAVY FRONTS AND A STALLED LEAD FRONT.  
HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE LIKELY FROM THE GULF COAST TO THE  
SOUTHEAST INTO THE WEEKEND.  
 
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK THERE IS ALSO A GROWING GUIDANCE SIGNAL TO  
BRING MORE ENERGETIC PACIFIC JET FLOW TOWARD THE WEST COAST. THIS  
MAY TRANSPORT DEEPER MOISTURE TO FUEL AND EMERGING PRECIPITATION  
PATTERN FOCUS INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO INCLUDE HEAVY TERRAIN  
ENHANCING SNOWS.  
 
CAMPBELL  
 
ADDITIONAL 3-7 DAY HAZARD INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON THE WPC  
MEDIUM RANGE HAZARDS OUTLOOK CHART AT:  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP  
 
WPC MEDIUM RANGE 500MB HEIGHTS, SURFACE SYSTEMS, WEATHER GRIDS,  
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION, EXPERIMENTAL EXCESSIVE RAINFALL  
OUTLOOK, WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK PROBABILITIES AND HEAT INDICES ARE  
AT:  
 
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST500_WBG.GIF  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST_WBG_CONUS.GIF  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/5KM_GRIDS/5KM_GRIDSBODY.HTML  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/DAY4-7.SHTML  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=ERO  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/WWD/PWPF_D47/PWPF_MEDR.PHP?DAY=4  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HEAT_INDEX.SHTML  
 

 
 

 
 
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