051  
FXUS02 KWBC 301857  
PMDEPD  
 
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
256 PM EDT WED MAR 30 2022  
 
VALID 12Z SAT APR 2 2022 - 12Z WED APR 6 2022  
 
...HEAVY RAIN BECOMING MORE LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF THE  
SOUTH-CENTRAL U.S. NEXT WEEK...  
 
19Z UPDATE: THE 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE SUITE IS INITIALLY IN ABOVE  
AVERAGE AGREEMENT ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE FOR THIS WEEKEND, WITH THE  
GFS SLIGHTLY MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE  
MIDWEST AND OHIO VALLEY. BY MONDAY, THE CMC BECOMES SLOWER AND A  
BIT MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE BUILDING TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN  
U.S., WHEREAS THE GFS IS SLIGHTLY MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN THE  
ENSEMBLE MEANS AS THIS DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE GULF COAST REGION  
BY MID-WEEK. ADDITIONALLY, CONSENSUS HAS IMPROVED WITH A WELL  
DEVELOPED CLOSED UPPER LOW FORMING OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST BY NEXT  
WEDNESDAY AS THE OVERALL PATTERN BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED. IN TERMS  
OF HEAVY RAINFALL PROSPECTS NEXT WEEK, THERE IS AN INCREASING  
LIKELIHOOD OF HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG STORMS FROM EASTERN TEXAS AND  
ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH AS FAVORABLE DYNAMICS AND INSTABILITY  
PARAMETERS ARE EXPECTED, WITH SOME 2-4 INCH RAINFALL TOTALS  
POSSIBLE. THE PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION IS APPENDED BELOW FOR  
REFERENCE. /HAMRICK  
   
..GUIDANCE EVALUATION/PREDICTABILITY ASSESSMENT
 
 
THE WPC MEDIUM RANGE PRODUCT SUITE WAS MAINLY DERIVED FROM A BLEND  
OF REASONABLY WELL CLUSTERED MID-LARGER SCALE GUIDANCE FROM THE 18  
UTC GFS/GEFS MEAN AND THE 12 UTC ECMWF/UKMET/CANADIAN/ECMWF  
ENSEMBLE MEAN ALONG WITH THE 01 UTC NATIONAL BLEND OF MODELS DAYS  
3-7 (SAT-NEXT WED). HOWEVER, EMBEDDED SMALLER SCALE SYSTEM  
DIFFERENCES AND AMPLE RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY VARIANCES REMAIN  
PROBLEMATIC. ACCORDINGLY, BLEND WEIGHTING WAS TRANSITIONED FROM  
PRIMARILY THE MODELS DAYS 3-5 TO THE ENSEMBLE MEANS DAYS 6/7 TO  
MITIGATE LESS PREDICTABLE FORECAST COMPONENTS AMID STEADILY  
GROWING FORECAST SPREAD. OVERALL, WPC PRODUCT CONTINUITY IS BEST  
MAINTAINED WITH THIS PLAN AND THE FORECAST SEEMS IN LINE WITH A  
SIMILAR COMPOSITE OF NEWER 00 UTC GUIDANCE.  
   
..OVERVIEW AND WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS/THREATS
 
 
A CLOSED UPPER TROUGH AND DEEPENED SURFACE LOW WILL WORK INTO THE  
CANADIAN MARITIMES BY SATURDAY. EXPECT LINGERING HIGH WINDS ACROSS  
NEW ENGLAND IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW. THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF A  
TRAILING WESTERN ATLANTIC COLD FRONT WILL SLOW OVER FLORIDA, THE  
GULF OF MEXICO AND INTO MEXICO. SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS  
ARE EXPECTED NEAR THE FRONT, PARTICULARLY ACROSS FLORIDA AND  
POSSIBLY THE GULF COAST SATURDAY.  
 
ACROSS THE WEST, A LEADING SERIES OF UPPER TROUGHS AND LOW  
PRESSURE SYSTEMS WITH MODEST PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL ARE EXPECTED  
TRACK THROUGH WITH VARYING DEGREES OF UNCERTAINTY THROUGH THE  
WEEKEND. INFUSION OF HIGHLY ENERGETIC PACIFIC JET FLOW WILL THEN  
UP THE ANTE AND WORK INCREASINGLY INLAND FROM THE NORTHWEST TO THE  
ROCKIES/PLAINS EARLY-MID NEXT WEEK. THIS SHOULD ACT TO TRANSPORT  
DEEPER MOISTURE TO FUEL AN EMERGING PRECIPITATION FOCUS FOR SOME  
HEAVIER RAINS AND MOUNTAIN ENHANCING SNOWS, MAINLY ACROSS THE  
NORTHWEST.  
 
DOWNSTREAM PROGRESSION AND SYSTEMS OUT FROM THE WEST AND  
INCREASING NORTHERN STREAM PHASING POTENTIAL OVER TIME MAY COMBINE  
TO SUPPORT UNCERTAIN CYCLOGENESIS/FRONTOGENESIS OVER THE CENTRAL  
AND EASTERN STATES NEXT WEEK. THERE IS A GROWING GUIDANCE SIGNAL  
FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A BUILDING AREA OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL  
ACROSS THE EAST-CENTRAL U.S. AND ESPECIALLY A MORE  
UNSTABLE/CONVECTIVE SOUTH EARLY-MID NEXT WEEK AS DEEPER GULF  
MOISTURE RETURNS AND INTERACTS WITH THE COMPLEX SERIES OF WAVY  
FRONTS AND A STALLED LEAD FRONT.  
 
SCHICHTEL  
 
ADDITIONAL 3-7 DAY HAZARD INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON THE WPC  
MEDIUM RANGE HAZARDS OUTLOOK CHART AT:  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP  
 
WPC MEDIUM RANGE 500MB HEIGHTS, SURFACE SYSTEMS, WEATHER GRIDS,  
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION, EXPERIMENTAL EXCESSIVE RAINFALL  
OUTLOOK, WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK PROBABILITIES AND HEAT INDICES ARE  
AT:  
 
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST500_WBG.GIF  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST_WBG_CONUS.GIF  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/5KM_GRIDS/5KM_GRIDSBODY.HTML  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/DAY4-7.SHTML  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=ERO  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/WWD/PWPF_D47/PWPF_MEDR.PHP?DAY=4  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HEAT_INDEX.SHTML  
 

 
 

 
 
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