846  
FXUS02 KWBC 161844  
PMDEPD  
 
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
243 PM EDT SAT APR 16 2022  
 
VALID 12Z TUE APR 19 2022 - 12Z SAT APR 23 2022  
   
..WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW
 
 
AN ACTIVE NORTHERN STREAM PATTERN OVER THE CONUS LIKELY CULMINATES  
IN A LARGE, CLOSED LOW OVER THE WEST COAST THURSDAY, PERHAPS INTO  
FRIDAY. TWO LOWS/TROUGHS TRACK AHEAD OF THIS LOW, ONE THAT LIFTS  
NORTH OF NEW ENGLAND ON WEDNESDAY AND ONE THAT TRACKS FROM THE  
NORTHERN PLAINS TO NEW ENGLAND BY WAY OF THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES  
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. AMPLIFIED RIDGING AND ABOVE  
NORMAL TEMPERATURES OCCUR BETWEEN THESE THREE LOWS/TROUGHS.  
   
..MODEL GUIDANCE EVALUATION
 
 
THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC DEPICTION OF THE PATTERN IS VERY STRONG IN  
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE UNTIL THURSDAY WHEN THE 06Z GFS OPENS THE  
LOW OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, MAKING IT MORE PROGRESSIVE THAT  
OTHER GUIDANCE WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT REACHES THE NORTHERN  
PLAINS BY 12Z SATURDAY WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF/CMC KEEP A CLOSED LOW  
OVER THE DESERT SW THROUGH THAT TIME. THE 12Z GFS IS A BIT SLOWER,  
BUT THE TROUGH STILL CROSSES THE CO ROCKIES BY 12Z SATURDAY.  
OTHERWISE, THE GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT.  
THE WPC FORECAST WAS DERIVED FROM A MULTI-DETERMINISTIC BLEND  
THROUGH DAY 5/WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE FAVORING THE ECMWF/CMC AND  
ENSEMBLE MEANS FROM THE GEFS/ECENS/CMCE.  
   
..SENSIBLE WEATHER/THREATS
 
 
FAR NORTHERN CA INTO OR HAVE PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST FOR  
EACH OF THE FOUR MEDIUM RANGE DAYS FROM BACK-TO-BACK SYSTEMS, THE  
SECOND ONE STALLING AND POTENTIALLY WORKING SOUTH THROUGH MUCH OF  
THE REST OF CA FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS LATE SEASON EVENT  
WILL DELIVER HIGHLY BENEFICIAL RAINFALL/MOUNTAIN SNOW TO  
DROUGHT-STRICKEN AREAS OF CALIFORNIA, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR THREE  
INCHES OF LIQUID FOR MOST NORTHERN CA TERRAIN WITH A FEW FEET OF  
SNOW FOR THE SIERRA. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL U.S., THE  
DEEP LOW LIFTING FROM NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW  
CONTINUED WRAP AROUND SNOW OVER INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND TERRAIN INTO  
WEDNESDAY. THE NEXT WAVE TO CROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS LOOKS TO  
PUSH MOST OF ITS SNOW INTO THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES THROUGH MIDWEEK  
WHILE ANOTHER ROUND OF ORGANIZED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE LIKELY TO  
DEVELOP ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. AND EXTENDING NORTHWARD TO THE  
GREAT LAKES AS GULF MOISTURE IS ADVECTED NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE  
ORGANIZING STORM SYSTEM. HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE, PARTICULARLY OVER  
THE OZARKS TO MID-MS VALLEY WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  
 
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BE BELOW NORMAL OVER THE  
NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH NEXT WEEK, SLOWING THE RECOVERY/MELT FROM  
THE RECENT BLIZZARD AS WELL AS THE EXPECTED SNOW TOMORROW/EASTER  
SUNDAY. ON THE CONTRARY, ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED  
ACROSS MUCH OF THE INTERIOR WESTERN U.S. UNDER RIDGING/SOUTH OF  
THE MIDWEEK LOW PASSAGES OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS BEFORE SHIFTING  
EAST OVER THE CENTRAL/EAST-CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CONUS INTO NEXT  
WEEKEND.  
 
JACKSON  
 
ADDITIONAL 3-7 DAY HAZARD INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON THE WPC  
MEDIUM RANGE HAZARDS OUTLOOK CHART AT:  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP  
 
WPC MEDIUM RANGE 500MB HEIGHTS, SURFACE SYSTEMS, WEATHER GRIDS,  
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION, EXPERIMENTAL EXCESSIVE RAINFALL  
OUTLOOK, WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK PROBABILITIES AND HEAT INDICES ARE  
AT:  
 
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST500_WBG.GIF  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST_WBG_CONUS.GIF  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/5KM_GRIDS/5KM_GRIDSBODY.HTML  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/DAY4-7.SHTML  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=ERO  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/WWD/PWPF_D47/PWPF_MEDR.PHP?DAY=4  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HEAT_INDEX.SHTML  
 

 
 

 
 
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