685  
FXUS02 KWBC 301718  
PMDEPD  
 
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
116 PM EDT MON MAY 30 2022  
 
VALID 12Z THU JUN 02 2022 - 12Z MON JUN 06 2022  
 
...WEEKEND HEAVY RAIN THREAT INCREASING OVER SOUTHERN FLORIDA  
AHEAD OF A TROPICAL SYSTEM...  
   
..MODEL GUIDANCE EVALUATION/PREFERENCES
 
 
RECENT MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE  
OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE 06Z GFS BEING  
A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH WITH A DEEP LAYER CYCLONE IN SOUTH-CENTRAL  
CANADA. THERE IS BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH  
EDGING INTO THE WEST FROM THE PACIFIC. NOTABLE DIFFERENCES  
CONTINUE TO BE SEEN NEAR FL THIS WEEKEND WITH THE SYSTEM AT LEAST  
PARTIALLY DUE TO NORTHEAST PACIFIC HURRICANE AGATHA'S REMNANTS.  
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW PRESSURE IN THE BAY  
OF CAMPECHE/YUCATAN/NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN TO DEEPEN AS IT  
APPROACHES FL WITH A GENERAL NORTHEAST TRACK. GFS AND CANADIAN  
MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO BE ON THE FAST SIDE OF THE ENVELOPE, WITH  
THE ECMWF ON THE SLOWER SIDE. WHEN THIS TYPICAL DISTRIBUTION IS  
SEEN WITH ANY RECURVING LOW, A COMPROMISE IS PREFERRED, THOUGH DID  
LEAN SOMEWHAT TOWARDS THE 00Z ECMWF AS A PRECAUTION LATE IN THE  
PERIOD AS IT STARTS TO INTERACT WITH A FRONTAL ZONE. SEE NHC  
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOKS FOR MORE ON THIS SYSTEM'S POTENTIAL FOR  
DEVELOPMENT. USED A COMPROMISE OF THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE FOR  
PLACEMENT OF FEATURES/PRESSURES/PREFERRED 500 HPA HEIGHT  
PATTERN/WINDS EARLY, BEFORE USING INCREASING AMOUNTS OF ENSEMBLE  
MEAN WITH TIME TO TAKE INTO ACCOUNT UNCERTAINTY. THE REMAINDER OF  
THE GRIDS ARE A MORE EVEN BLEND OF GUIDANCE SIMILAR TO THE 13Z  
NATIONAL BLEND OF MODELS.  
 
   
..SENSIBLE WEATHER/THREAT HIGHLIGHTS
 
 
RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN THE NORTHWEST DURING THE  
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK GIVEN THE TROUGH AXIS NEAR THE WEST COAST  
AND ONSHORE FLOW. THE SOUTHWEST SHOULD REMAIN DRY AND HOT, WITH  
DEATH VALLEY EXPECTED TO MEET OR EXCEED 110F HIGH TEMPERATURES  
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.  
 
THERE IS INCREASING FORECAST AGREEMENT FOR HURRICANE AGATHA OVER  
THE EASTERN PACIFIC TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHEAST MEXICO  
OVER THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS WHILE WEAKENING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS  
ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE FREQUENT AND WIDESPREAD ACROSS  
SOUTHERN FLORIDA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE REMNANT  
DISTURBANCE, FIRST WITH THE MOISTURE STREAMING NORTHEAST AHEAD OF  
THE SYSTEM AND THEN WITH THE SURFACE LOW. MOISTURE ALOFT FROM THE  
FAR EASTERN PACIFIC AND LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE CARIBBEAN  
SHOULD LEAD TO HEAVY RAINFALL, EVEN IF THE SYSTEM'S TIMING IS IN  
QUESTION. EVEN IN THE CYCLONE'S WAKE, ITS CONVERGENT TAIL APPEARS  
TO BE STUCK IN THE VICINITY OF SOUTH FL & THE KEYS, KEEPING THE  
THREAT OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL IN PLAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.  
THE EXPERIMENTAL DAY 5 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK HAS A SLIGHT  
RISK FOR THE KEYS AND SOUTH FL (JUNE 3 12Z-JUNE 4 12Z), AFTER  
FAVORABLE COORDINATION WITH THE KEY/KEY WEST FL AND MFL/MIAMI FL  
FORECAST OFFICES.  
 
A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE EAST LATE THIS WEEK, WITH RAIN AND  
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED IN ITS VICINITY. AREAS OF THE EASTERN  
MID-ATLANTIC COULD SEE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND AN ISOLATED  
FLASH FLOOD THREAT THURSDAY, WITH A SIMILAR THREAT ACROSS PORTIONS  
OF THE CAROLINAS ON FRIDAY. RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED  
IN THE VICINITY OF A FRONT DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST  
AND GULF COAST BEFORE RETURNING NORTHWARD INTO TX. THESE FRONTS  
WILL CONTINUE TO SPARK ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF ENHANCED RAINFALL  
ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. THIS WEEKEND NEAR ITS TAIL WITH THE USUAL  
UNCERTAINTIES IN PLACEMENT.  
 
A RELATIVELY FLAT PATTERN ALOFT COMPARED TO THE MORE AMPLIFIED  
SHORT RANGE PERIOD SHOULD PRODUCE LESSER TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES  
LATE THIS WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. COOLER THAN AVERAGE SPOTS  
WILL BE ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY  
WITH RAIN COOLED AIR, BUT SHOULD SWITCH TO ABOVE NORMAL IN TEXAS  
BY ABOUT 10F BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. PERIODIC TROUGHING IN THE  
NORTHERN TIER SHOULD LEAD TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES  
BY 5-10F. THE WESTERN U.S. COULD BE WARMER THAN NORMAL BY 5-10F  
LATE IN THE WORKWEEK BUT COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST BY THE  
WEEKEND UNDER THE TROUGHING INFLUENCE/AS A COLD FRONT MOVES  
THROUGH THE AREA. WARM TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THURSDAY  
WILL MODERATE CLOSER TO NORMAL LATE WEEK BEHIND A COLD FRONTAL  
PASSAGE.  
 
ROTH/TATE  
 
ADDITIONAL 3-7 DAY HAZARD INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON THE WPC  
MEDIUM RANGE HAZARDS OUTLOOK CHART AT:  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP  
 
WPC MEDIUM RANGE 500MB HEIGHTS, SURFACE SYSTEMS, WEATHER GRIDS,  
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION, EXPERIMENTAL EXCESSIVE RAINFALL  
OUTLOOK, WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK PROBABILITIES AND HEAT INDICES ARE  
AT:  
 
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST500_WBG.GIF  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST_WBG_CONUS.GIF  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/5KM_GRIDS/5KM_GRIDSBODY.HTML  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/DAY4-7.SHTML  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=ERO  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/WWD/PWPF_D47/PWPF_MEDR.PHP?DAY=4  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HEAT_INDEX.SHTML  
 

 
 

 
 
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