362  
FXUS02 KWBC 311915  
PMDEPD  
 
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
314 PM EDT TUE MAY 31 2022  
 
VALID 12Z FRI JUN 03 2022 - 12Z TUE JUN 07 2022  
 
...HEAVY RAIN THREAT INCREASING OVER FLORIDA DUE TO TROPICAL  
MOISTURE INFLOW AND A POSSIBLY FORMING TROPICAL SYSTEM...  
 
   
..OVERVIEW
 
 
WHILE THE OVERALL PATTERN ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOWER 48 WILL REMAIN  
FAIRLY STAGNANT LATE WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH WEST COAST  
TROUGHING AND A SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA UPPER LOW SENDING SOME LOW  
AMPLITUDE TROUGHING ACROSS THE CENTRAL TO EASTERN U.S. BUT THE  
MAIN NOTABLE FEATURE TO WATCH DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD WILL  
BE THE POSSIBILITY FOR A TROPICAL CYCLONE TO DEVELOP OVER THE  
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA/SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO PARTIALLY  
FROM ENERGY FROM WHAT IS CURRENTLY TROPICAL STORM AGATHA OVER  
MEXICO. AT THIS TIME, A LOW TRACK NORTHEASTWARD NEAR OR OVER THE  
FLORIDA PENINSULA IS POSSIBLE, BUT WITH FAIRLY LOW CONFIDENCE IN  
THE TRACK, TIMING, AND STRENGTH OF A TROPICAL SYSTEM. REGARDLESS,  
HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WITH SUBSTANTIAL  
MOISTURE STREAMING AHEAD OF THIS POTENTIAL SYSTEM AND THEN NEAR  
ITS POSSIBLE EVENTUAL TRACK.  
 
   
..MODEL GUIDANCE EVALUATION/PREFERENCES
 
 
THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE APPEARS TO BE IN MODEST AGREEMENT AS TO  
THE GENERAL SYNOPTIC PATTERN THROUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD WITH  
SOME NOTABLE DIFFERENCES TOWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK. DETERMINISTIC  
MODELS SEEM TO SUGGEST A MORE PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM IN THE  
GULF/CARIBBEAN THIS WEEKEND WITH THE 00Z CMC BEING AN EVEN FASTER  
OUTLIER WITH THE AXIS OF PRECIPITATION. A GENERAL DETERMINISTIC  
MODEL BLEND OF THE 00Z EC/UK/CMC AND 06Z GFS WAS APPLIED ON  
FRIDAY. THE 00Z UK WAS REPLACED BY THE 00Z ECE ON SATURDAY DUE TO  
BETTER HANDLING OF THE LOW OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE 00Z  
CMCE WAS INTRODUCED ON SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY A MORE PROBABILISTIC  
BLEND THROUGH TUESDAY. THE 00Z EC WEIGHTING WAS REDUCED ON SUNDAY  
AND MONDAY THEN REMOVED ON DAY 7 DUE TO THE FACT THAT IT WAS THE  
ONLY BIT OF GUIDANCE WITH A CLOSED LOW MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERN  
ATLANTIC. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE DOES A GOOD JOB OF CAPTURING THE  
TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE POTENTIAL TROPICAL SYSTEM THROUGH NEXT  
TUESDAY.  
 
   
..SENSIBLE WEATHER/THREAT HIGHLIGHTS
 
 
TROPICAL STORM AGATHA HAS CURRENTLY MOVED INTO MEXICO AND WILL  
WEAKEN QUICKLY OVER UNFAVORABLE TERRAIN THERE. BUT ITS ASSOCIATED  
DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL STREAM INTO SOUTHERN FLORIDA FRIDAY,  
INCREASING THE LIKELIHOOD OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING MORE  
FREQUENT AND WIDESPREAD, FIRST AHEAD OF THE REMNANT DISTURBANCE  
AND THEN WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A TROPICAL LOW TO DEVELOP  
(POSSIBLY PARTIALLY FROM AGATHA'S REMNANTS) AND TRACK OVER OR NEAR  
THE STATE. MOISTURE ALOFT FROM THE FAR EASTERN PACIFIC AND LOWER  
LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE CARIBBEAN SHOULD LEAD TO HEAVY RAINFALL,  
EVEN IF THE SYSTEM'S TIMING IS IN QUESTION. EVEN IN THE CYCLONE'S  
WAKE, ITS CONVERGENT TAIL APPEARS TO BE STUCK IN THE VICINITY OF  
SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE KEYS, KEEPING THE THREAT OF MODERATE TO  
HEAVY RAINFALL IN PLAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SLIGHT RISKS ARE IN  
PLACE IN WPC'S EXPERIMENTAL DAYS 4 AND 5 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL  
OUTLOOK.  
 
ELSEWHERE, RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN THE NORTHWEST  
LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND GIVEN THE TROUGH AXIS NEAR THE WEST  
COAST AND ONSHORE FLOW. HOWEVER, THE SOUTHWEST SHOULD REMAIN DRY  
AND HOT, WITH DEATH VALLEY EXPECTED TO MEET OR EXCEED 110F HIGH  
TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. FARTHER EAST,  
FRONTS ARE EXPECTED TO SPARK ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS  
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S., WITH THE CAROLINAS AN AREA OF  
FOCUS ON FRIDAY AND PARTS OF THE PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY  
SEEING CONVECTION FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS  
FRONTS MEANDER THERE. THERE ARE INCREASING PROBABILITIES OF AN  
AXIS OF HEAVY RAINFALL DEVELOPING OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS  
AND MIDDLE/UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON SUNDAY.  
 
A RELATIVELY FLAT PATTERN ALOFT COMPARED TO THE MORE AMPLIFIED  
SHORT RANGE PERIOD SHOULD PRODUCE LESSER TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES  
LATE THIS WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. COOLER THAN AVERAGE SPOTS  
WILL BE ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY WITH RAIN COOLED  
AIR, BUT SHOULD SWITCH TO ABOVE NORMAL IN TEXAS BY 10-15F BY EARLY  
NEXT WEEK. PERIODIC TROUGHING IN THE NORTHERN TIER SHOULD LEAD TO  
SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES BY AROUND 10F. THE WESTERN  
U.S. COULD BE WARMER THAN NORMAL BY 5-10F LATE IN THE WORKWEEK BUT  
COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST BY THE WEEKEND UNDER THE  
TROUGHING INFLUENCE AND AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.  
 
TATE/KEBEDE  
 
ADDITIONAL 3-7 DAY HAZARD INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON THE WPC  
MEDIUM RANGE HAZARDS OUTLOOK CHART AT:  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP  
 
WPC MEDIUM RANGE 500MB HEIGHTS, SURFACE SYSTEMS, WEATHER GRIDS,  
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION, EXPERIMENTAL EXCESSIVE RAINFALL  
OUTLOOK, WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK PROBABILITIES AND HEAT INDICES ARE  
AT:  
 
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST500_WBG.GIF  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST_WBG_CONUS.GIF  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/5KM_GRIDS/5KM_GRIDSBODY.HTML  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/DAY4-7.SHTML  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=ERO  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/WWD/PWPF_D47/PWPF_MEDR.PHP?DAY=4  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HEAT_INDEX.SHTML  
 

 
 

 
 
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