427  
FXUS02 KWBC 030700  
PMDEPD  
 
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
259 AM EDT FRI JUN 03 2022  
 
VALID 12Z MON JUN 06 2022 - 12Z FRI JUN 10 2022  
   
..OVERVIEW
 
 
POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE ONE IS FORECAST BY THE NATIONAL  
HURRICANE CENTER TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL STORM THAT BY THE  
START OF THIS MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD MONDAY SHOULD BE TRACKING WELL  
OFFSHORE THE CAROLINAS AND PULLING AWAY FROM THE U.S. AS A  
MARITIME THREAT. MEANWHILE, MUCH OF THE REST OF THE LOWER 48  
SHOULD SEE A FAIRLY ZONAL PATTERN, BUT WITH SHORTWAVES AND SURFACE  
FRONTAL BOUNDARIES PROVIDING FOCI FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND POTENTIAL  
FOR HEAVY RAINFALL OVER A BROAD REGION FROM THE ROCKIES/CENTRAL  
U.S. INTO THE EAST NEXT WEEK.  
 
   
..MODEL GUIDANCE EVALUATION/PREFERENCES
 
 
PLEASE SEE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ADVISORIES FOR POTENTIAL  
TROPICAL CYCLONE ONE FOR THE MOST RECENT INFORMATION.  
 
GUIDANCE IS OVERALL TRENDING TO SHOW BETTER THAN NORMAL  
AGREEMENT/PREDICTABILITY WITH THE MID-LARGER SCALE FLOW EVOLUTION  
FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK IN A PATTERN WITH RELATIVELY ZONAL FLOW. A  
BLEND OF BEST CLUSTERED GUIDANCE OF THE LATEST GFS/ECMWF AND  
GEFS/ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS ALONG WITH THE 01 UTC NATIONAL BLEND OF  
MODELS SHOULD TEND TO MITIGATE THE MORE AMPLE SMALLER SCALE  
EMBEDDED SYSTEM DIFFERENCES AT THE COST OF LESS PREDICTABLE  
DETAIL. THERE REMAINS SOME SIGNAL THAT A MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN  
COULD DEVELOP LATE NEXT WEEK, BUT RECENT GUIDANCE HAS EXHIBITED  
MORE PRONOUNCED RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY ISSUES AT THESE LONGER TIME  
FRAMES. ACCORDINGLY, GREATER BLEND WEIGHTING APPLIED TO THE MODELS  
FOR EARLY-MID NEXT WEEK WAS SWITCHED TO THE STILL COMPATIBLE  
ENSEMBLE MEANS INTO LATER NEXT WEEK AMID GROWING UNCERTAINTY.  
 
   
..SENSIBLE WEATHER/THREAT HIGHLIGHTS
 
 
NEXT WEEK SHOULD OFFER AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN PRIMARILY FROM  
THE ROCKIES TO THE EAST AS MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR LOCAL HEAVY  
DOWNPOURS AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TRY TO FOCUS FUELING MOISTURE  
AND INSTABILITY NEAR A WAVY FRONTAL BOUNDARY, AS LOCALLY INDUCED  
WITH IMPLUSES PASSAGES AND ADDITIONALLY WITH TERRAIN/UPSLOPE FLOW  
AS WELL AS WITH HARDER TO PINPOINT CONVECTIVELY INDUCED  
MESO-BOUNDARIES. CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS AND REPEAT/TRAINING CELLS  
COULD PRODUCE LOCAL RUNOFF ISSUES WITH PERHAPS THE STRONGEST  
SIGNAL WEEK FROM THE HIGH PLAINS/CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE  
MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ALONG WITH A LEAD REGION WITH SOME  
POTENTIAL WITH TRAINING CONVECTION FROM THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY TO  
THE NORTHEAST, ESPECIALLY IF THE MAIN FRONTS SLOW DUE TO THE  
DOWNSTREAM WELL OFFSHORE TRACK OF "ONE" OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.  
 
SCHICHTEL  
 
ADDITIONAL 3-7 DAY HAZARD INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON THE WPC  
MEDIUM RANGE HAZARDS OUTLOOK CHART AT:  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP  
 
WPC MEDIUM RANGE 500MB HEIGHTS, SURFACE SYSTEMS, WEATHER GRIDS,  
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION, EXPERIMENTAL EXCESSIVE RAINFALL  
OUTLOOK, WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK PROBABILITIES AND HEAT INDICES ARE  
AT:  
 
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST500_WBG.GIF  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST_WBG_CONUS.GIF  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/5KM_GRIDS/5KM_GRIDSBODY.HTML  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/DAY4-7.SHTML  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=ERO  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/WWD/PWPF_D47/PWPF_MEDR.PHP?DAY=4  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HEAT_INDEX.SHTML  
 

 
 

 
 
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