054  
FXUS02 KWBC 031901  
PMDEPD  
 
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
259 PM EDT FRI JUN 03 2022  
 
VALID 12Z MON JUN 06 2022 - 12Z FRI JUN 10 2022  
   
..OVERVIEW
 
 
POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE ONE IS FORECAST BY THE NATIONAL  
HURRICANE CENTER TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL STORM THAT BY THE  
START OF THIS MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD MONDAY SHOULD BE TRACKING WELL  
OFFSHORE THE CAROLINAS AND PULLING AWAY FROM THE U.S. AS A  
MARITIME THREAT. MEANWHILE, MUCH OF THE REST OF THE LOWER 48  
SHOULD SEE A FAIRLY ZONAL PATTERN, BUT WITH SHORTWAVES AND SURFACE  
FRONTAL BOUNDARIES PROVIDING FOCI FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND POTENTIAL  
FOR HEAVY RAINFALL OVER A BROAD REGION FROM THE ROCKIES/CENTRAL  
U.S. INTO THE EAST NEXT WEEK.  
 
   
..MODEL GUIDANCE EVALUATION/PREFERENCES
 
 
THE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW ABOVE AVERAGE AGREEMENT AND  
PREDICTABILITY WITH THE MID-LARGER SCALE FLOW EVOLUTION THROUGH  
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK IN A PATTER WITH RELATIVELY ZONAL FLOW. THERE  
REMAIN SOME QUESTIONS IN THE SMALLER SCALE DETAILS WHICH LIKELY  
WILL TAKE UNTIL THE SHORT RANGE TO RESOLVE. A GENERAL MODEL BLEND  
USING THE LATEST DETERMINISTIC RUNS SERVED AS A GOOD STARTING  
POINT FOR DAYS 3-5. MODELS AND ENSEMBLES ARE HINTING AT A MORE  
AMPLIFIED FLOW PATTERN BY LATER NEXT WEEK, BUT WITH PLENTY OF RUN  
TO RUN CONTINUITY ISSUES LEADING TO MUCH GREATER UNCERTAINTY AT  
THESE LONGER LEAD TIMES. WPCS BLEND FOR DAYS 6-7 INCORPORATED MORE  
OF THE COMPATIBLE ECENS/GEFS MEANS, THOUGH STILL WITH AT LEAST  
HALF DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE (ECMWF, CMC, GFS) FOR ADDED SYSTEM  
DEFINITION. THIS MAINTAINED GOOD CONTINUITY WITH THE PREVIOUS  
FORECAST.  
 
   
..SENSIBLE WEATHER/THREAT HIGHLIGHTS
 
 
DESPITE ZONAL FLOW, NEXT WEEK SHOULD OFFER A SOMEWHAT ACTIVE  
WEATHER PATTERN PRIMARILY FROM THE ROCKIES TO THE EAST AS LOCALLY  
HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TEND TO FOCUS NEAR AND  
ALONG A WAVY FRONTAL BOUNDARY, WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND  
INSTABILITY AVAILABLE. EXACT LOCATIONS OF HEAVIEST RAIN WILL  
REMAIN EXTREMELY DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT GIVEN THE CONVECTIVE NATURE  
OF THIS ACTIVITY. CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS AND REPEAT/TRAINING CELLS  
COULD PRODUCE LOCAL RUNOFF ISSUES WITH PERHAPS THE STRONGEST  
SIGNAL NEXT WEEK FROM THE HIGH PLAINS/CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE  
MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ALONG WITH A LEAD REGION FROM THE UPPER  
OHIO VALLEY TO THE NORTHEAST. MUCH OF THE WEST SHOULD STAY DRY  
NEXT WEEK UNTIL LATER IN THE WEEK WHEN A PACIFIC SYSTEM  
APPROACHING THE COAST BRINGS A PERIOD OF RAINFALL TO THE PACIFIC  
NORTHWEST.  
 
GENERAL TROUGHING OVER THE NORTHERN TIER AND INTO THE EAST WILL  
KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR OR MODESTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH THE GREATEST  
ANOMALIES (NEAR 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL) OVER THE NORTHERN  
PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST. TEXAS REMAINS WARM, WITH NEAR RECORD DAYTIME  
HIGHS AS MUCH AS 15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL, THROUGH MUCH OF  
THE WEEK, WITH SOME RELIEF ON THURSDAY BEFORE RIDGING AMPLIFIES  
AGAIN ON FRIDAY. FROM CALIFORNIA, ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT BASIN  
AND THE SOUTHWEST, TEMPERATURES WILL TREND WARMER THROUGHOUT THE  
WEEK, WITH DAYTIME HIGHS 10 TO 15 DEGREES AND POSSIBLE EXCESSIVE  
HEAT CONCERNS FOR SOME IN THE INTERIOR VALLEY REGION OF CALIFORNIA  
AND THE DESERT SOUTHWEST BY LATER NEXT WEEK  
 
SANTORELLI/SCHICHTEL  
 
ADDITIONAL 3-7 DAY HAZARD INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON THE WPC  
MEDIUM RANGE HAZARDS OUTLOOK CHART AT:  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP  
 
WPC MEDIUM RANGE 500MB HEIGHTS, SURFACE SYSTEMS, WEATHER GRIDS,  
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION, EXPERIMENTAL EXCESSIVE RAINFALL  
OUTLOOK, WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK PROBABILITIES AND HEAT INDICES ARE  
AT:  
 
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST500_WBG.GIF  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST_WBG_CONUS.GIF  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/5KM_GRIDS/5KM_GRIDSBODY.HTML  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/DAY4-7.SHTML  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=ERO  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/WWD/PWPF_D47/PWPF_MEDR.PHP?DAY=4  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HEAT_INDEX.SHTML  
 

 
 

 
 
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