024  
FXUS02 KWBC 040702  
PMDEPD  
 
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
300 AM EDT SAT JUN 04 2022  
 
VALID 12Z TUE JUN 07 2022 - 12Z SAT JUN 11 2022  
   
..OVERVIEW AND SENSIBLE WEATHER/THREAT HIGHLIGHTS
 
 
EXPECT SUMMER HEAT INTO THE SOUTH WITH PARTS OF TEXAS IN  
PARTICULAR EXPECTED TO ENDURE NEAR RECORD HEAT WITH DAYTIME HIGHS  
AS MUCH AS 15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT  
WEEK. STEADILY PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN NEAR ZONAL  
FLOW OVERTOP U.S. SOUTHERN TIER UPPER RIDGING THROUGH THROUGH  
MIDWEEK SHOULD OFFER A BROADLY ACTIVE CONVECTIVE WEATHER PATTERN  
FROM THE ROCKIES TO THE EAST/NORTHEAST AS LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL  
AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TEND TO FOCUS NEAR AND ALONG A WAVY  
FRONTAL BOUNDARY, WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY  
AVAILABLE. EXACT LOCATIONS OF HEAVIEST RAIN WILL REMAIN EXTREMELY  
DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT GIVEN THE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THIS  
ACTIVITY. CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS AND REPEAT/TRAINING CELLS COULD  
PRODUCE LOCAL RUNOFF ISSUES WITH PERHAPS THE STRONGEST SIGNAL FROM  
THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE MID-SOUTH AND LATER NEXT WEEK UPPER  
TROUGH AMPLIFICATION MAY REFOCUS AND BETTER ORGANIZE CONVECTIVE  
RAINFALL POTENTIAL IN THIS SUSCEPTABLE AREA AND VICINITY.  
MEANWHILE, MUCH OF THE WEST SHOULD STAY DRY UNTIL LATE NEXT WEEK  
WHEN A PACIFIC SYSTEM APPROACHING THE COAST BRINGS A PERIOD OF  
RAINFALL TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, WHILE LEAD UPPER RIDGE  
AMPLIFICATION ALSO FAVORING THE BUILDING OF EXCESSIVE HEAT ACROSS  
THE INTERIOR VALLEYS OF CALIFORNIA AND THE DESERT SOUTHWEST LATE  
WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.  
   
..MODEL GUIDANCE EVALUATION/PREFERENCES
 
 
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW ABOVE AVERAGE AGREEMENT AND  
PREDICTABILITY WITH THE MID-LARGER SCALE FLOW EVOLUTION THROUGH  
NEXT MIDWEEK IN A PATTERN WITH RELATIVELY ZONAL FLOW. THERE REMAIN  
SOME QUESTIONS IN THE SMALLER SCALE DETAILS WHICH LIKELY WILL TAKE  
UNTIL THE SHORT RANGE TO RESOLVE. HOWEVER, A GENERAL MODEL  
COMPOSITE OF THE LATEST GFS/ECMWF/UKMET/CANADIAN RUNS SEEMED TO  
PROVIDE A GOOD FORECAST BASIS FOR DAYS 3/4 (TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY)  
ALONG WITH THE NATIONAL BLEND OF MODELS AND WPC CONTINUITY. MODELS  
AND ENSEMBLES ARE INCREASINGLY SHOWING A SIGNAL FOR A MORE  
AMPLIFIED FLOW PATTERN BY LATER NEXT WEEK, ALBEIT IN A PATTERN  
WITH MODERATELY INCREASING FORECAST SPREAD. WPC PRODUCTS FOR DAYS  
5-7 (THURSDAY-NEXT SATURDAY) WERE PRIMARILY DERIVED FROM A  
COMPOISTE BLEND OF BEST CLUSTERED GUIDANCE FROM THE GEFS/ECENS  
ENSEMBLE MEANS AND NATIONAL BLEND OF MODELS ALONG WITH  
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE FROM THE GFS/ECMWF FOR ADDED SYSTEM  
DEFINITION. THIS MAINTAINED GOOD WPC PRODUCT CONTINUITY.  
 
SCHICHTEL  
 
ADDITIONAL 3-7 DAY HAZARD INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON THE WPC  
MEDIUM RANGE HAZARDS OUTLOOK CHART AT:  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP  
 
WPC MEDIUM RANGE 500MB HEIGHTS, SURFACE SYSTEMS, WEATHER GRIDS,  
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION, EXPERIMENTAL EXCESSIVE RAINFALL  
OUTLOOK, WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK PROBABILITIES AND HEAT INDICES ARE  
AT:  
 
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST500_WBG.GIF  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST_WBG_CONUS.GIF  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/5KM_GRIDS/5KM_GRIDSBODY.HTML  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/DAY4-7.SHTML  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=ERO  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/WWD/PWPF_D47/PWPF_MEDR.PHP?DAY=4  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HEAT_INDEX.SHTML  
 

 
 

 
 
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