149  
FXUS02 KWBC 041809  
PMDEPD  
 
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
207 PM EDT SAT JUN 04 2022  
 
VALID 12Z TUE JUN 07 2022 - 12Z SAT JUN 11 2022  
   
..OVERVIEW AND SENSIBLE WEATHER/THREAT HIGHLIGHTS
 
 
EXPECT SUMMER HEAT INTO THE SOUTH WITH PARTS OF TEXAS IN  
PARTICULAR EXPECTED TO ENDURE NEAR RECORD HEAT WITH DAYTIME HIGHS  
AS MUCH AS 15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT  
WEEK. STEADILY PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN NEAR ZONAL  
FLOW OVERTOP U.S. SOUTHERN TIER UPPER RIDGING THROUGH MIDWEEK  
SHOULD OFFER A BROADLY ACTIVE CONVECTIVE WEATHER PATTERN FROM THE  
ROCKIES TO THE EAST/NORTHEAST AS LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG  
THUNDERSTORMS TEND TO FOCUS NEAR AND ALONG A WAVY FRONTAL  
BOUNDARY, WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY AVAILABLE. EXACT  
LOCATIONS OF HEAVIEST RAIN WILL REMAIN EXTREMELY DIFFICULT TO  
PINPOINT GIVEN THE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THIS ACTIVITY. CONVECTIVE  
CLUSTERS AND REPEAT/TRAINING CELLS COULD PRODUCE LOCAL RUNOFF  
ISSUES WITH PERHAPS THE STRONGEST SIGNAL FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS  
TO THE MID-SOUTH AND LATER NEXT WEEK AS UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFICATION  
MAY REFOCUS AND BETTER ORGANIZE CONVECTIVE RAINFALL POTENTIAL IN  
THIS SUSCEPTABLE AREA AND VICINITY. MEANWHILE, MUCH OF THE WEST  
SHOULD STAY DRY UNTIL LATE NEXT WEEK WHEN A PACIFIC SYSTEM  
APPROACHING THE COAST BRINGS A PERIOD OF RAINFALL TO THE PACIFIC  
NORTHWEST, WHILE LEAD UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFICATION ALSO FAVORS  
BUILDING EXCESSIVE HEAT ACROSS THE INTERIOR VALLEYS OF CALIFORNIA  
AND THE DESERT SOUTHWEST LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.  
   
..MODEL GUIDANCE EVALUATION/PREFERENCES
 
 
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW ABOVE AVERAGE AGREEMENT AND  
PREDICTABILITY WITH THE MID-LARGER SCALE FLOW EVOLUTION THROUGH  
NEXT MIDWEEK IN A PATTERN WITH RELATIVELY ZONAL FLOW. THERE REMAIN  
SOME QUESTIONS IN THE SMALLER SCALE DETAILS WHICH LIKELY WILL TAKE  
UNTIL THE SHORT RANGE TO RESOLVE. A GENERAL MODEL BLEND OF THE  
LATEST DETERMINISTIC MODELS SEEMED A GOOD STARTING POINT FOR THE  
FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD, MINUS THE UKMET WHICH WAS A LITTLE SOUTH  
OF CONSENSUS ON A SURFACE LOW LIFTING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES NEXT  
TUESDAY. AFTER THIS, MODELS AND ENSEMBLES ARE INCREASINGLY SHOWING  
A SIGNAL FOR A MORE AMPLIFIED FLOW PATTERN BY NEXT WEEKEND, THOUGH  
WITH SOME LINGERING FORECAST SPREAD. WPC PRODUCTS FOR DAYS 6-7  
(FRIDAY-NEXT SATURDAY) INCREASINGLY WEIGHED TOWARDS THE WELL  
CLUSTERED GEFS/ECENS ENSEMBLE MEANS, WITH SOME DETERMINISTIC  
INFLUENCE FOR ADDED SYSTEM DEFINITION. THIS MAINTAINED GOOD WPC  
PRODUCT CONTINUITY.  
 
SANTORELLI/SCHICHTEL  
 
ADDITIONAL 3-7 DAY HAZARD INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON THE WPC  
MEDIUM RANGE HAZARDS OUTLOOK CHART AT:  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP  
 
WPC MEDIUM RANGE 500MB HEIGHTS, SURFACE SYSTEMS, WEATHER GRIDS,  
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION, EXPERIMENTAL EXCESSIVE RAINFALL  
OUTLOOK, WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK PROBABILITIES AND HEAT INDICES ARE  
AT:  
 
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST500_WBG.GIF  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST_WBG_CONUS.GIF  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/5KM_GRIDS/5KM_GRIDSBODY.HTML  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/DAY4-7.SHTML  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=ERO  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/WWD/PWPF_D47/PWPF_MEDR.PHP?DAY=4  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HEAT_INDEX.SHTML  
 

 
 

 
 
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