467
FXUS02 KWBC 050639
PMDEPD
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
238 AM EDT SUN JUN 05 2022
VALID 12Z WED JUN 08 2022 - 12Z SUN JUN 12 2022
..OVERVIEW AND SENSIBLE WEATHER/THREAT HIGHLIGHTS
SHORTWAVES WITHIN NEAR ZONAL FLOW WILL ACT TO LOCALLY ENHANCE A
BROADLY ACTIVE CONVECTIVE WEATHER PATTERN FROM THE ROCKIES/PLAINS
TO THE EAST THIS WEEK AS HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FUELED BY MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY POOLING NEAR A WAVY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. EXACT LOCATIONS OF HEAVIEST RAIN WILL REMAIN EXTREMELY
DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT GIVEN THE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THIS
ACTIVITY. CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS AND REPEAT/TRAINING CELLS COULD
PRODUCE EARLY PERIOD LOCAL RUNOFF ISSUES WITH PERHAPS THE
STRONGEST SIGNAL FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE MID-SOUTH AND
AGAIN LATER WEEK AS UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFICATION/DIFFLUENCE MAY
REFOCUS AND BETTER ORGANIZE CONVECTIVE RAINFALL POTENTIAL IN THIS
SUSCEPTABLE AREA AND VICINITY. ACTIVITY WILL TRY TO WORK INTO THE
SUMMER WARMTH ACROSS A U.S SOUTHERN TIER UNDER THE INLFUENCE OF AN
UPPER RIDGE. NEAR RECORD DAYTIME TEMPERATURES MORE THAN 10F ABOVE
NORMAL ARE POSSIBLE IN THIS AIRMASS OVER PARTS OF TEXAS.
MEANWHILE, MUCH OF THE WEST SHOULD STAY DRY UNTIL LATE WEEK INTO
THE NEXT WEEKEND WHEN A PACIFIC SYSTEM APPROACHING THE COAST
BRINGS A PERIOD OF ENHANCED MOISTURE AND RAINFALL MAINLY TO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. LEAD UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFICATION ALSO FAVORS
BUILDING EXCESSIVE HEAT ACROSS THE INTERIOR VALLEYS OF CALIFORNIA
AND THE DESERT SOUTHWEST LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND TO INCLUDE
SOME LOCAL RECORD VALUES.
..MODEL GUIDANCE EVALUATION/PREFERENCES
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW ABOVE AVERAGE AGREEMENT AND
PREDICTABILITY WITH THE MID-LARGER SCALE FLOW EVOLUTION THROUGH
MID-LATE WEEK IN A PATTERN WITH RELATIVELY ZONAL FLOW. THERE
REMAIN SOME QUESTIONS IN THE SMALLER SCALE DETAILS WHICH LIKELY
WILL TAKE UNTIL THE SHORT RANGE TO RESOLVE. A GENERAL MODEL BLEND
OF THE GFS/ECMWF/UKMET/CANADIAN AND NATIONAL BLEND OF MODELS SEEMS
TO PROVIDE A GOOD STARTING POINT WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY. MODELS AND
ENSEMBLES INCREASINGLY SHOW A SIGNAL FOR A MORE AMPLIFIED FLOW
PATTERN BY NEXT WEEKEND, THOUGH WITH INCREASING FORECAST SPREAD.
WPC PRODUCTS INTO DAYS 6-7 (NEXT WEEKEND) INCREASINGLY WEIGHED
TOWARDS THE DECENTLY CLUSTERED GEFS/ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS, WITH
LESSER INPUT FROM THE BEST MATCHED GFS/ECMWF FOR BETTER SYSTEM
DEFINITION. WPC PRODUCT CONTINUITY IS WELL MAINTAINED.
SCHICHTEL
ADDITIONAL 3-7 DAY HAZARD INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON THE WPC
MEDIUM RANGE HAZARDS OUTLOOK CHART AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
WPC MEDIUM RANGE 500MB HEIGHTS, SURFACE SYSTEMS, WEATHER GRIDS,
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION, EXPERIMENTAL EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
OUTLOOK, WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK PROBABILITIES AND HEAT INDICES ARE
AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST500_WBG.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST_WBG_CONUS.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/5KM_GRIDS/5KM_GRIDSBODY.HTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/DAY4-7.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=ERO
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/WWD/PWPF_D47/PWPF_MEDR.PHP?DAY=4
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HEAT_INDEX.SHTML
OVERTOP U.S. SOUTHERN TIER UPPER RIDGING SUMMER HEAT ACROSS THE
SOUTH MAY NEAR RECORD LEVELS OVER PARTS OF TEXAS.
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