565  
FXUS02 KWBC 060658  
PMDEPD  
 
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
257 AM EDT MON JUN 06 2022  
 
VALID 12Z THU JUN 09 2022 - 12Z MON JUN 13 2022  
   
..OVERVIEW AND SENSIBLE WEATHER/THREAT HIGHLIGHTS
 
 
AN ENERGETIC SERIES OF STEADILY PROGRESSING SHORTWAVES WITHIN NEAR  
ZONAL FLOW WILL ACT TO LOCALLY ENHANCE A BROADLY ACTIVE CONVECTIVE  
WEATHER PATTERN FROM THE ROCKIES/PLAINS TO THE EAST INTO LATER  
THIS WEEK AS HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FUELED BY  
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY POOLING NEAR A WAVY FRONTAL BOUNDARY.  
EXACT LOCATIONS OF THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL REMAIN EXTREMELY  
DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT GIVEN THE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THIS  
ACTIVITY, THOUGH LOCAL FLOODING CONCERNS MAY BE POSSIBLE WITHIN  
CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS AND WHERE CELLS REPEAT/TRAIN. THE BEST SIGNAL  
FOR THIS WOULD BE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO MID-SOUTH  
THURSDAY/FRIDAY (WHERE SPC HIGHLIGHTS A CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER  
AS WELL). UPPER RIDGING UNDERNEATH ACROSS A WARMED SOUTH WILL  
INCLUDE NEAR RECORD DAYTIME TEMPERATURES MORE THAN 10 DEGREES  
ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS TEXAS INTO THE WEEKEND. THE OVERALL UPPER FLOW  
PATTERN BY THEN LOOKS TO AMPLIFY, BRINGING A WAVY FRONTAL SYSTEM  
AND MORE WIDESPREAD RAINS/CONVECTION ACROSS THE EAST AND HEAT  
MODERATION DOWN ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH.  
 
MUCH OF THE WEST SHOULD STAY DRY UNTIL LATE WEEK AND THE WEEKEND  
WHEN PACIFIC SYSTEM ENERGIES WORK INLAND TO BRING A PERIOD OF  
ENHANCED MOISTURE AND RAINFALL TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND ONWARD  
ACROSS THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN WEST/ROCKIES. DOWNSTREAM SYSTEM  
PROGRESSION WOULD ADD ENHANCED CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL TO THE  
NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. UPPER RIDGE  
AMPLIFICATION IN ADVANCE OF PACIFIC SYSTEM ENERGIES WILL MEANWHILE  
FAVOR BUILDING EXCESSIVE HEAT ACROSS THE INTERIOR VALLEYS OF  
CALIFORNIA AND THE DESERT SOUTHWEST LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND TO  
INCLUDE SOME LOCAL RECORD VALUES.  
   
..MODEL GUIDANCE EVALUATION/PREFERENCES
 
 
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW ABOVE AVERAGE AGREEMENT AND  
PREDICTABILITY WITH THE MID-LARGER SCALE FLOW EVOLUTION INTO LATE  
WEEK IN A PATTERN WITH RELATIVELY ZONAL FLOW. THERE REMAIN SOME  
QUESTIONS IN THE SMALLER SCALE DETAILS WHICH LIKELY WILL TAKE  
UNTIL THE SHORT RANGE TO RESOLVE BUT A GENERAL MODEL BLEND OF THE  
GFS/ECMWF/UKMET/CANADIAN AND NBM SEEMS TO PROVIDE A GOOD STARTING  
POINT THURSDAY/FRIDAY. MODELS AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO  
INCREASINGLY SHOW A SIGNAL/TRENDS (INCLUDING LATEST 00 UTC RUNS)  
TOWARD MORE AMPLIFIED FLOW INTO NEXT WEEKEND, THOUGH WITH  
INCREASING FORECAST SPREAD. WPC PRODUCTS INTO DAYS 5-7 (NEXT  
WEEKEND INTO NEXT MONDAY INCREASINGLY WEIGHED TOWARDS THE  
GEFS/ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS, WITH LESSER INPUT FROM THE BEST MATCHED  
GFS/ECMWF FOR BETTER SYSTEM DEFINITION. THIS ALSO HELPED TO  
MAINTAIN GOOD WPC PRODUCT CONTINUITY.  
 
SCHICHTEL  
 
ADDITIONAL 3-7 DAY HAZARD INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON THE WPC  
MEDIUM RANGE HAZARDS OUTLOOK CHART AT:  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP  
 
WPC MEDIUM RANGE 500MB HEIGHTS, SURFACE SYSTEMS, WEATHER GRIDS,  
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION, EXPERIMENTAL EXCESSIVE RAINFALL  
OUTLOOK, WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK PROBABILITIES AND HEAT INDICES ARE  
AT:  
 
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST500_WBG.GIF  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST_WBG_CONUS.GIF  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/5KM_GRIDS/5KM_GRIDSBODY.HTML  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/DAY4-7.SHTML  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=ERO  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/WWD/PWPF_D47/PWPF_MEDR.PHP?DAY=4  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HEAT_INDEX.SHTML  
 

 
 

 
 
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