434  
FXUS02 KWBC 061844  
PMDEPD  
 
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
241 PM EDT MON JUN 06 2022  
 
VALID 12Z THU JUN 09 2022 - 12Z MON JUN 13 2022  
 
...DANGEROUS/RECORD HEAT FOR THE SOUTHWEST FRIDAY INTO THE  
WEEKEND...  
   
..OVERVIEW AND MODEL GUIDANCE EVALUATION/PREFERENCES
 
 
BROAD ZONAL FLOW WILL TREND TOWARD INCREASED TROUGHING INTO THE  
NORTHEAST AND WESTERN CANADA (EVENTUALLY THE PAC NW) AS UPPER  
RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHWEST LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.  
THIS WILL FAVOR A COOLER AND WETTER PERIOD FOR MUCH OF THE EAST  
LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND WITH EXTREME  
HEAT FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST, AND A GENERALLY WARM/HOT  
PATTERN FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF THE WEST. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER  
THE SOUTHEAST AND MID-SOUTH WILL ACT AS A FOCUS FOR MORE ORGANIZED  
RAIN/THUNDERSTORMS IN ADDITION TO A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING  
ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST COAST SATURDAY. THE GUIDANCE  
REMAINED IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A BLEND OF THE 00Z/06Z  
MODELS AND ENSEMBLES FORMING A REASONABLE STARTING POINT. BY EARLY  
NEXT WEEK, THERE WERE DIFFERENCE IN HOW QUICKLY TROUGHING MOVES  
INTO THE NORTHWEST WITH NO CLEAR TREND IN THE MULTI-DAY ENSEMBLES.  
THE NATIONAL BLEND OF MODELS WAS AN ADEQUATE MIDDLE-GROUND  
SOLUTION OVERALL, ESPECIALLY WITH TEMPERATURES.  
   
..SENSIBLE WEATHER/THREAT HIGHLIGHTS
 
 
FOR THU/FRI, HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL WILL LIE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS  
TO THE MID-SOUTH (WHERE SPC HIGHLIGHTS A CHANCE FOR SEVERE  
WEATHER) AS MOISTURE INTERSECTS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER SOME  
AREAS THAT HAVE BEEN RELATIVELY WET THE PAST WEEK. THE SYSTEM WILL  
PROGRESS EASTWARD THEN NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE COAST, SPREADING  
RAIN AND SOME STORMS INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST FRI-SAT  
WHERE IT HAS BEEN RELATIVELY DRY AS OF LATE.  
 
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL OVER MUCH OF THE EAST  
DUE TO CLOUDS AND INCREASED RAIN CHANCES, BUT IT WILL BE HOT AND  
DRY OVER THE SOUTHWEST. WITH STRONG RIDGING IN PLACE BY FRIDAY,  
TEMPERATURES WILL SOAR INTO THE 100S AND 110S OVER THE LOWER  
DESERTS WHICH WILL BE 10-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AT WHAT IS  
TYPICALLY NEAR THE HOTTEST TIME OF THE YEAR IN THAT PART OF THE  
CONUS. THIS WILL CHALLENGE DAILY RECORDS FOR MANY LOCATIONS FROM  
I-80 SOUTHWARD AND ESPECIALLY FOCUSED OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA INTO  
ARIZONA AND SOUTHEASTERN CALIFORNIA. EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCHES ARE IN  
PLACE FOR PARTS OF THIS REGION FOR LATER THIS WEEK THROUGH THE  
WEEKEND. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE WARM AS WELL, ONLY DIPPING  
INTO THE 70S AND 80S FOR MANY LOCATIONS IN THE SOUTHWEST.  
 
FRACASSO  
 
ADDITIONAL 3-7 DAY HAZARD INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON THE WPC  
MEDIUM RANGE HAZARDS OUTLOOK CHART AT:  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP  
 
WPC MEDIUM RANGE 500MB HEIGHTS, SURFACE SYSTEMS, WEATHER GRIDS,  
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION, EXPERIMENTAL EXCESSIVE RAINFALL  
OUTLOOK, WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK PROBABILITIES AND HEAT INDICES ARE  
AT:  
 
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST500_WBG.GIF  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST_WBG_CONUS.GIF  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/5KM_GRIDS/5KM_GRIDSBODY.HTML  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/DAY4-7.SHTML  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=ERO  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/WWD/PWPF_D47/PWPF_MEDR.PHP?DAY=4  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HEAT_INDEX.SHTML  
 

 
 

 
 
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