235  
FXUS02 KWBC 071941  
PMDEPD  
 
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
339 PM EDT TUE JUN 07 2022  
 
VALID 12Z FRI JUN 10 2022 - 12Z TUE JUN 14 2022  
 
...DANGEROUS/RECORD HEAT FOR THE SOUTHWEST/CENTRAL GREAT BASIN TO  
TEXAS FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...  
 
18Z UPDATE: THE 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE, ALONG WITH THE 00Z ECMWF, IS  
IN VERY GOOD SYNOPTIC SCALE AGREEMENT THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE  
FORECAST PERIOD. SOME MINOR DIFFERENCES BECOME APPARENT WITH THE  
CMC BY EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A SLIGHTLY MORE AMPLIFIED AND  
PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION ACROSS THE EAST COAST REGION. BY NEXT  
TUESDAY, THE GFS IS STRONGER WITH THE CLOSED LOW EXITING THE  
NORTHERN ROCKIES, BUT STILL CLOSE TO THE ENSEMBLE MEANS REGARDING  
PLACEMENT. THE SOUTHERN U.S. UPPER RIDGE AND THE ACCOMPANYING  
HEAT IS PROBABLY THE MOST CONFIDENT PART OF THE FORECAST. IN  
TERMS OF QPF, THERE IS A STRONGER SIGNAL FOR HEAVIER RAIN ACROSS  
CENTRAL IDAHO AND INTO WESTERN MONTANA THIS WEEKEND AS DEEPER  
MOISTURE FROM THE PACIFIC ADVECTS INLAND. THE PREVIOUS FORECAST  
DISCUSSION IS APPENDED BELOW FOR REFERENCE. /HAMRICK  
   
..OVERVIEW AND MODEL GUIDANCE EVALUATION/PREFERENCES
 
 
LINGERING ZONAL FLOW WILL TREND TOWARD INCREASED TROUGHING INTO  
THE EAST/NORTHEAST AND WESTERN CANADA/NORTHWEST U.S. AS UPPER  
RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHWEST LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.  
THIS WILL FAVOR A COOLER AND WETTER PERIOD FOR MUCH OF THE EAST  
LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND WITH EXTREME  
HEAT FOR PORTIONS OF TEXAS TO THE SOUTHWEST/CENTRAL GREAT BASIN,  
AND A GENERALLY WARM/HOT PATTERN FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF THE WEST.  
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND MID-SOUTH WILL ACT AS A  
FOCUS FOR MORE ORGANIZED RAIN/THUNDERSTORMS IN ADDITION TO A  
WEEKEND WAVE OF DEEPENED LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE  
MID-ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST. THE GUIDANCE REMAINED IN OVERALL GOOD  
AGREEMENT WITH A BLEND OF THE 12Z/18Z GFS/ECMWF/UKMET/CANADIAN  
FORMING A REASONABLE STARTING POINT AND DETAILS THAT HAS GOOD  
ENSEMBLE SUPPORT. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK, THERE REMAIN DIFFERENCES IN  
HOW QUICKLY MODERATING UPPER TROUGHING MOVES INTO THE WEST, WITH  
BEST CLUSTERED GUIDANCE FROM THE GFS/ECMWF AND GEFS/ECMWF ENSEMBLE  
MEAN EMPHASIZED. THE 01 UTC NATIONAL BLEND OF MODELS ALSO OFFERS  
AN ADEQUATE MIDDLE-GROUND SOLUTION OVERALL, ESPECIALLY WITH  
TEMPERATURES. NEWER 00 UTC GUIDANCE REMAIN IN LINE WITH THIS  
SCENARIO, BUT HAVE OVERALL TRENDED A BIT MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE  
FLOW AND THAT MAY BE REASONABLE.  
   
..SENSIBLE WEATHER/THREAT HIGHLIGHTS
 
 
FOR FRI, HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL WILL LIE OVER THE MID-SOUTH (WHERE  
SPC HIGHLIGHTS A CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER) AS MOISTURE INTERSECTS  
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER SOME AREAS THAT HAVE BEEN RELATIVELY WET  
THE PAST WEEK. THE SYSTEM WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD THEN  
NORTHEASTWARD TO THE COAST, SPREADING RAIN AND MOST ORGANIZED  
HEAVY STORMS INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST FRI-SAT WHERE IT  
HAS BEEN RELATIVELY DRY AS OF LATE AND ALSO ALONG THE TRAILING  
FRONT OVER THE SOUTHEAST.  
 
MEANWHILE, MUCH OF THE WEST SHOULD STAY DRY UNTIL LATE WEEK AND  
THE WEEKEND WHEN PACIFIC SYSTEM ENERGIES WORK INLAND TO BRING SOME  
ENHANCED MOISTURE AND RAINFALL TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND ONWARD  
ACROSS THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN WEST/ROCKIES. DOWNSTREAM SYSTEM  
PROGRESSION WOULD ADD ENHANCED CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL TO THE  
NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.  
 
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL OVER MUCH OF THE EAST  
DUE TO CLOUDS AND INCREASED RAIN CHANCES, BUT IT WILL BE HOT AND  
DRY OVER TEXAS AND THE SOUTHWEST/CENTRAL GREAT BASIN. WITH STRONG  
RIDGING IN PLACE BY FRIDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL SOAR INTO THE 100S  
AND 110S OVER THE LOWER DESERTS WHICH WILL BE 10-20 DEGREES ABOVE  
NORMAL AT WHAT IS TYPICALLY NEAR THE HOTTEST TIME OF THE YEAR IN  
THAT PART OF THE CONUS. THIS WILL CHALLENGE DAILY RECORDS FOR MANY  
LOCATIONS FROM I-80 SOUTHWARD AND ESPECIALLY FOCUSED OVER SOUTHERN  
NEVADA INTO ARIZONA AND SOUTHEASTERN CALIFORNIA. EXCESSIVE HEAT  
WATCHES ARE IN PLACE FOR PARTS OF THIS REGION FOR LATER THIS WEEK  
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE WARM AS WELL,  
ONLY DIPPING INTO THE 70S AND 80S FOR MANY LOCATIONS IN THE  
SOUTHWEST.  
 
SCHICHTEL  
 
ADDITIONAL 3-7 DAY HAZARD INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON THE WPC  
MEDIUM RANGE HAZARDS OUTLOOK CHART AT:  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP  
 
HAZARDS:  
- HEAVY RAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, THE  
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, THE  
OHIO VALLEY, AND THE TENNESSEE VALLEY, FRI, JUN 10.  
- HEAVY RAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND THE CENTRAL  
APPALACHIANS, SAT, JUN 11.  
- SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST, THE LOWER  
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, THE SOUTHERN  
PLAINS, AND THE TENNESSEE VALLEY, FRI, JUN 10.  
- FLOODING POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS, THE  
SOUTHERN PLAINS, THE NORTHERN  
ROCKIES, AND THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN.  
- FLOODING OCCURRING OR IMMINENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE UPPER  
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THE NORTHERN  
PLAINS.  
- FLOODING LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND THE  
NORTHERN PLAINS.  
- EXCESSIVE HEAT ACROSS PORTIONS OF CALIFORNIA, FRI-SAT, JUN  
10-JUN 11.  
- EXCESSIVE HEAT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL GREAT BASIN,  
CALIFORNIA, AND THE SOUTHWEST,  
FRI-SUN, JUN 10-JUN 12.  
- EXCESSIVE HEAT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY  
AND THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, FRI-TUE,  
JUN 10-JUN 14.  
- HIGH WINDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES, THE CENTRAL  
GREAT BASIN, THE NORTHERN ROCKIES,  
THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN, AND THE SOUTHWEST, SUN-MON, JUN 12-JUN  
13.  
 
WPC MEDIUM RANGE 500MB HEIGHTS, SURFACE SYSTEMS, WEATHER GRIDS,  
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION, EXPERIMENTAL EXCESSIVE RAINFALL  
OUTLOOK, WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK PROBABILITIES AND HEAT INDICES ARE  
AT:  
 
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST500_WBG.GIF  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST_WBG_CONUS.GIF  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/5KM_GRIDS/5KM_GRIDSBODY.HTML  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/DAY4-7.SHTML  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=ERO  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/WWD/PWPF_D47/PWPF_MEDR.PHP?DAY=4  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HEAT_INDEX.SHTML  
 

 
 

 
 
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