233  
FXUS02 KWBC 080700  
PMDEPD  
 
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
300 AM EDT WED JUN 08 2022  
 
VALID 12Z SAT JUN 11 2022 - 12Z WED JUN 15 2022  
 
...DANGEROUS/RECORD HEAT FOR THE SOUTHWEST/GREAT BASIN TO TEXAS  
INTO THE WEEKEND TO SHIFT INTO THE EAST-CENTRAL U.S. NEXT WEEK...  
   
..PATTERN OVERVIEW AND SENSIBLE WEATHER/THREAT HIGHLIGHTS
 
 
THE UPPER PATTERN OVER THE NATION IS SET TO AMPLIFY WITH TROUGH  
DEVELOPMENT TO THE WEST COAST AND DOWNSTREAM OVER THE  
EAST/NORTHEAST TO SANDWICH RIDGING FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO THE  
SOUTH-CENTRAL U.S. THIS WEEKEND. AMPLIFIED TROUGHING WILL WORK  
INLAND OVER AN UNSETTLED/COOLING WEST EARLY NEXT WEEK AS  
DOWNSTREAM RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE EAST-CENTRAL U.S.. DESPITE  
TRANSITIONAL FLOW, GUIDANCE IS OFFERING A STRONG SIGNAL FOR A WET  
PERIOD FOR THE EAST INTO THE WEEKEND WITH WIDESPREAD  
SHOWERS/STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AND POSSIBLE LOCAL RUNOFF ISSUES AS A  
ORGANIZING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WORKS THROUGH THE  
MID-ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST AND A WAVY TRAILING FRONT SETTLES INTO THE  
SOUTHEAST. MODERATING POST-FRONTAL TEMPERATURES/MOISTURE INTO  
EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL STARKLY CONTRAST EXTREME HEAT SPREADING OVER  
THE PERIOD FROM THE SOUTHWEST/GREAT BASIN AND TEXAS TO THE  
EAST-CENTRAL U.S. THAT MAY CHALLENGE DAILY RECORDS. MEANWHILE,  
UNSETTLED/WET WEATHER SEEM SET TO SPREAD FROM THE PACIFIC  
NORTHWEST TO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WHERE SOME HIGH ELEVATION SNOWS  
ARE POSSIBLE. IN THIS FLOW, THERE IS ALSO A GROWING SIGNAL FOR  
HEAVIER RAINS WITH SOME LOCAL RUNOFF CONCERNS FOR THE NORTHERN  
GREAT BASIN/ROCKIES THIS WEEKEND AS DEEPER MOISTURE FROM THE  
PACIFIC ADVECTS INLAND. FLOW DOWNSTREAM OVER NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER  
MIDWEST INTO NEXT WEEK WILL INCREASINGLY FAVOR PERIODIC STRONG MCS  
ACTIVITY WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS UNCERTAIN IMPULSES RIDE OVERTOP  
AND SPILL OVER THE RIDGE.  
 
...GUIDANCE AND PREDICTABILITY EVALUATION...  
 
THE WPC MEDIUM RANGE PRODUCT SUITE WAS PRIMARILY DERIVED FROM A  
COMPOSITE BLEND OF BEST CLUSTERED PATTERN, SYSTEM, TEMPERATURE  
PROFILE AND QPF GUIDANCE OF THE 12 UTC ECMWF/UKMET AND  
GEFS/NAEFS/ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS ALONG WITH THE 01 UTC NATIONAL  
BLEND OF MODELS (NBM) FOR DAYS 3-5 (SATURDAY-MONDAY) BEFORE  
LEANING ON THE ENSEMBLE MEANS AS FORECAST SPREAD AND MODEL RUN TO  
RUN CONTINUITY ISSUES GROW INTO DAYS 6/7 (NEXT  
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY). NEWER 00 UTC GUIDANCE REMAINS IN LINE WITH  
THIS SCENARIO IN A PATTERN WITH OVERALL NEAR AVERAGE FORECAST  
UNCERTAINTY.  
 
SCHICHTEL  
 
ADDITIONAL 3-7 DAY HAZARD INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON THE WPC  
MEDIUM RANGE HAZARDS OUTLOOK CHART AT:  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP  
 
WPC MEDIUM RANGE 500MB HEIGHTS, SURFACE SYSTEMS, WEATHER GRIDS,  
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION, EXPERIMENTAL EXCESSIVE RAINFALL  
OUTLOOK, WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK PROBABILITIES AND HEAT INDICES ARE  
AT:  
 
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST500_WBG.GIF  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST_WBG_CONUS.GIF  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/5KM_GRIDS/5KM_GRIDSBODY.HTML  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/DAY4-7.SHTML  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=ERO  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/WWD/PWPF_D47/PWPF_MEDR.PHP?DAY=4  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HEAT_INDEX.SHTML  
 

 
 

 
 
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