937  
FXUS02 KWBC 081921  
PMDEPD  
 
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
319 PM EDT WED JUN 08 2022  
 
VALID 12Z SAT JUN 11 2022 - 12Z WED JUN 15 2022  
 
...DANGEROUS/RECORD HEAT FOR THE SOUTHWEST/GREAT BASIN TO TEXAS  
INTO THE WEEKEND TO SHIFT INTO THE EAST-CENTRAL U.S. NEXT WEEK...  
 
19Z UPDATE: THE 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE SUITE IS IN VERY GOOD SYNOPTIC  
SCALE AGREEMENT THROUGH ABOUT MONDAY. SOME MINOR DIFFERENCES  
BECOME APPARENT WITH THE CMC BY EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A MORE  
AMPLIFIED SOLUTION ACROSS THE EAST COAST REGION. BY NEXT TUESDAY,  
THE GFS IS STRONGER WITH THE CLOSED LOW EXITING THE NORTHERN  
ROCKIES, AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY REACHES THE UPPER MIDWEST SOONER  
THAN THE SLOWER CMC/ECMWF BY WEDNESDAY. THE SOUTHERN U.S. UPPER  
RIDGE AND THE ACCOMPANYING HEAT IS PROBABLY THE MOST CONFIDENT  
PART OF THE FORECAST. IN TERMS OF QPF, THERE IS A STRONGER SIGNAL  
FOR HEAVIER RAIN ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA FOR SUNDAY NIGHT ANS INTO  
MONDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW BECOMES BETTER ORGANIZED AND FOCUSES  
MOISTURE. THE PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION IS APPENDED BELOW FOR  
REFERENCE. /HAMRICK  
 
   
..PATTERN OVERVIEW AND SENSIBLE WEATHER/THREAT HIGHLIGHTS
 
 
THE UPPER PATTERN OVER THE NATION IS SET TO AMPLIFY WITH TROUGH  
DEVELOPMENT TO THE WEST COAST AND DOWNSTREAM OVER THE  
EAST/NORTHEAST TO SANDWICH RIDGING FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO THE  
SOUTH-CENTRAL U.S. THIS WEEKEND. AMPLIFIED TROUGHING WILL WORK  
INLAND OVER AN UNSETTLED/COOLING WEST EARLY NEXT WEEK AS  
DOWNSTREAM RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE EAST-CENTRAL U.S.. DESPITE  
TRANSITIONAL FLOW, GUIDANCE IS OFFERING A STRONG SIGNAL FOR A WET  
PERIOD FOR THE EAST INTO THE WEEKEND WITH WIDESPREAD  
SHOWERS/STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AND POSSIBLE LOCAL RUNOFF ISSUES AS A  
ORGANIZING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WORKS THROUGH THE  
MID-ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST AND A WAVY TRAILING FRONT SETTLES INTO THE  
SOUTHEAST. MODERATING POST-FRONTAL TEMPERATURES/MOISTURE INTO  
EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL STARKLY CONTRAST EXTREME HEAT SPREADING OVER  
THE PERIOD FROM THE SOUTHWEST/GREAT BASIN AND TEXAS TO THE  
EAST-CENTRAL U.S. THAT MAY CHALLENGE DAILY RECORDS. MEANWHILE,  
UNSETTLED/WET WEATHER SEEM SET TO SPREAD FROM THE PACIFIC  
NORTHWEST TO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WHERE SOME HIGH ELEVATION SNOWS  
ARE POSSIBLE. IN THIS FLOW, THERE IS ALSO A GROWING SIGNAL FOR  
HEAVIER RAINS WITH SOME LOCAL RUNOFF CONCERNS FOR THE NORTHERN  
GREAT BASIN/ROCKIES THIS WEEKEND AS DEEPER MOISTURE FROM THE  
PACIFIC ADVECTS INLAND. FLOW DOWNSTREAM OVER NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER  
MIDWEST INTO NEXT WEEK WILL INCREASINGLY FAVOR PERIODIC STRONG MCS  
ACTIVITY WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS UNCERTAIN IMPULSES TRACK ACROSS  
THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE.  
 
...GUIDANCE AND PREDICTABILITY EVALUATION...  
 
THE WPC MEDIUM RANGE PRODUCT SUITE WAS PRIMARILY DERIVED FROM A  
COMPOSITE BLEND OF BEST CLUSTERED PATTERN, SYSTEM, TEMPERATURE  
PROFILE AND QPF GUIDANCE OF THE 12 UTC ECMWF/UKMET AND  
GEFS/NAEFS/ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS ALONG WITH THE 01 UTC NATIONAL  
BLEND OF MODELS (NBM) FOR DAYS 3-5 (SATURDAY-MONDAY) BEFORE  
LEANING ON THE ENSEMBLE MEANS AS FORECAST SPREAD AND MODEL RUN TO  
RUN CONTINUITY ISSUES GROW INTO DAYS 6/7 (NEXT  
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY). NEWER 00 UTC GUIDANCE REMAINS IN LINE WITH  
THIS SCENARIO IN A PATTERN WITH OVERALL NEAR AVERAGE FORECAST  
UNCERTAINTY.  
 
SCHICHTEL  
 
ADDITIONAL 3-7 DAY HAZARD INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON THE WPC  
MEDIUM RANGE HAZARDS OUTLOOK CHART AT:  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP  
 
HAZARDS:  
- HEAVY RAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND THE  
NORTHERN GREAT BASIN, SAT-SUN, JUN  
11-JUN 12.  
- HEAVY RAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS, SUN-MON, JUN  
12-JUN 13.  
- FLOODING POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS, THE  
NORTHERN ROCKIES, AND THE NORTHERN  
GREAT BASIN.  
- FLOODING OCCURRING OR IMMINENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL  
PLAINS, THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, THE  
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS.  
- FLOODING LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS, THE  
PACIFIC NORTHWEST, THE NORTHERN  
ROCKIES, THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN, AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS.  
- EXCESSIVE HEAT ACROSS PORTIONS OF CALIFORNIA, SAT, JUN 11.  
- EXCESSIVE HEAT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES, THE  
CENTRAL GREAT BASIN, THE SOUTHWEST,  
CALIFORNIA, AND THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, SAT-SUN, JUN 11-JUN 12.  
- EXCESSIVE HEAT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES, THE  
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, THE  
SOUTHERN PLAINS, AND THE SOUTHWEST, SAT-TUE, JUN 11-JUN 14.  
- EXCESSIVE HEAT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY,  
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY, THE GREAT  
LAKES, THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, THE MID-ATLANTIC, THE  
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS, THE SOUTHEAST,  
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, AND THE OHIO VALLEY, MON-WED, JUN 13-JUN 15.  
- HIGH WINDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES, THE CENTRAL  
GREAT BASIN, THE NORTHERN ROCKIES,  
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES, THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN, AND THE SOUTHWEST,  
SUN-MON, JUN 12-JUN 13.  
- ENHANCED WILDFIRE RISK ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL GREAT  
BASIN AND THE SOUTHWEST, SUN, JUN 12.  
- ENHANCED WILDFIRE RISK ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES,  
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, AND THE  
SOUTHWEST, MON, JUN 13.  
 
WPC MEDIUM RANGE 500MB HEIGHTS, SURFACE SYSTEMS, WEATHER GRIDS,  
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION, EXPERIMENTAL EXCESSIVE RAINFALL  
OUTLOOK, WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK PROBABILITIES AND HEAT INDICES ARE  
AT:  
 
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST500_WBG.GIF  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST_WBG_CONUS.GIF  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/5KM_GRIDS/5KM_GRIDSBODY.HTML  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/DAY4-7.SHTML  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=ERO  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/WWD/PWPF_D47/PWPF_MEDR.PHP?DAY=4  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HEAT_INDEX.SHTML  
 

 
 

 
 
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