066  
FXUS02 KWBC 131839  
PMDEPD  
 
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
238 PM EDT MON JUN 13 2022  
 
VALID 12Z THU JUN 16 2022 - 12Z MON JUN 20 2022  
 
...POTENT, BUT SHORT HEAT WAVE MOVES EAST OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS  
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...  
 
   
..OVERVIEW AND GUIDANCE/PREDICTABILITY EVALUATION
 
 
THE UPPER PATTERN FURTHER AMPLIFIES AS A STRONG RIDGE BUILDS UP  
THE GREAT PLAINS FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS A TROUGH AND EMBEDDED  
CLOSED LOW SHIFTS SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND A  
TROUGH DIGS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WITH A CLOSED LOW THERE SATURDAY  
AND SUNDAY. THIS PATTERN PROMOTES EASTWARD PROGRESS OF AN AXIS OF  
HIGH TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY THROUGH  
MONDAY WITH A COLD FRONT AHEAD OF THE WESTERN LOW PROVIDING RELIEF  
FROM WEST TO EAST STARTING ON SUNDAY. NOTABLE AREAS OF  
PRECIPITATION DURING THE PERIOD WILL LIKELY BE WITH A FRONT  
CROSSING THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY, DIURNALLY FAVORED CONVECTION OVER  
THE GULF COAST AND FLORIDA, PARTICULARLY FOR SATURDAY-MONDAY AHEAD  
OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT, ACROSS PARTS OF THE FOUR CORNERS  
STATES WITH A NORTHWARD SURGE OF MOISTURE WEST OF THE RIDGE, OVER  
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST/NORTHERN ROCKIES WITH THE WEST COAST  
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE WAVES/FRONTS.  
 
THE 00Z/06Z (AND NOW 12Z) GFS IS IN MUCH BETTER ALIGNMENT WITH THE  
ECMWF ON TIMING/INTENSITY/PLACEMENT OF THE NORTHEAST TROUGH/LOW  
FRIDAY THROUGH THIS WEEKEND THAN PRIOR DAY GFS RUNS. CONFIDENCE  
HAS INCREASED IN A CLOSED LOW PUSHING SOUTHEAST INTO NEW ENGLAND  
ON SATURDAY AND LINGERING INTO SUNDAY BEFORE DRIFTING EAST TO THE  
CANADIAN MARITIMES. THE 00Z ECMWF/ECENS IS STILL FARTHER  
WEST/DEEPER WITH THE LOW LINGERING OVER NEW ENGLAND INTO/THROUGH  
MONDAY. PREFERENCE THERE IS FOR A GENERAL DETERMINISTIC MODEL  
BLEND THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY BECOMING MORE WEIGHED BY  
ENSEMBLE MEANS SUNDAY/MONDAY.  
 
FOR THE UPPER TROUGH DRIFTING SOUTHEAST OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST  
COAST BEFORE REACHING NORTHERN CALIFORNIA FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE  
DRIFTING EAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND, THE DETERMINISTIC GLOBALS ARE  
IN GOOD AGREEMENT UNTIL ABOUT 12Z/SAT WITH THE PIVOT WITH THE 00Z  
CMC LINGERING WEST/DRIFTING DOWN THE COAST WHILE THE GFS AND ECMWF  
ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE EASTWARD PIVOT WITH THE 00Z ECMWF  
MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN THE 06Z/12Z GFS.  
 
AS SUCH, THE FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF 00Z/06Z DETERMINISTIC  
GUIDANCE FAVORING THE 00Z ECMWF THROUGH DAY 5 THEN INCREASING  
WEIGHT TO THE 00Z ECENS/CMCE AND THE 06Z GEFS.  
 
   
..SENSIBLE WEATHER/THREAT HIGHLIGHTS
 
 
THE COLD FRONT PROGRESSING EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL  
PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHEAST AND ALONG THE  
PIVOTING COLD FRONT NEAR OR OVER NORTHERN MISSOURI THURSDAY  
NIGHT/FRIDAY WITH LOCALLY MODERATE TO HEAVY ACTIVITY POSSIBLE.  
BEST POTENTIAL CURRENTLY APPEARS TO BE OVER AND NEAR THE CENTRAL  
APPALACHIANS INTO THE NORTHEAST. WHILE MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE A  
DRIER TREND AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE, INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR UPPER  
TROUGHING/POSSIBLE CLOSED LOW OVER OR NEAR THE NORTHEAST MAY LEAD  
TO MULTIPLE DAYS OF SHOWERY WEATHER OVER THAT REGION. THE  
SOUTHEAST AND GULF COAST REGIONS WILL SEE DIURNALLY FAVORED  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY/SATURDAY AND THEN OVER THE  
FLORIDA PENINSULA SUNDAY MONDAY IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF A  
STALLING COLD FRONT.  
THE UPPER TROUGH REACHING THE NORTHWEST COAST FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD  
INITIALLY BRING MAINLY LIGHT RAINFALL TO PARTS OF THE NORTHWEST,  
WITH AN INCREASE IN AMOUNTS AT LEAST ON A LOCALIZED BASIS AS THE  
CLOSED SYSTEM MOVES INLAND AND MOISTURE IS ADDED FROM THE WEST  
SIDE OF THE GREAT PLAINS RIDGE DURING THE WEEKEND. WESTERN MONTANA  
LOOKS TO SEE NOTABLE WARM PRECIPITATION (SNOW LEVELS ABOVE  
10,000FT) IN THE SUNDAY TIMEFRAME.  
THE DEEP-LAYER FLOW BETWEEN THE WEST COAST TROUGH AND CENTRAL U.S.  
RIDGE BRINGS A MONSOON-PREVIEW WITH MUCH ABOVE NORMAL MOISTURE FOR  
THE TIME OF YEAR NORTHWARD THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS STATES AND  
VICINITY (MOST LIKELY EASTERN SECTIONS OF THIS AREA) FRIDAY  
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, SUPPORTING AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND  
INTENSITY OF RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION. RAIN/THUNDERSTORMS LOOK  
TO CONTINUE OVER THIS REGION INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AND THE MOISTURE  
MAY INTERACT WITH THE FRONT SLOWLY ADVANCING THROUGH THE WEST.  
 
THE EASTERN U.S. WILL SEE A PRONOUNCED COOLING TREND FROM THE  
RECENT HEAT AS THE UPPER TROUGH/LOW MOVE IN WITH BELOW NORMAL  
HIGHS OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST THIS WEEKEND INTO  
EARLY NEXT WEEK. MEANWHILE HEAT SHIFTS AGAIN FROM THE WEST AS THE  
RIDGE BUILDS NORTH FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES THROUGH THE NORTHERN  
PLAINS FRIDAY. A NARROW AXIS OF HIGH TEMPS 15 TO 25F ABOVE NORMAL  
SHIFTS EAST FROM THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS FRIDAY, REACHING THE  
UPPER MIDWEST BY MONDAY. MAX TEMPS OVER 100F ARE FORECAST WITH  
THIS HEAT WAVE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS THOUGH IT WILL BE BRIEF  
WITH ABOUT TWO HOT DAYS FORECAST. SCATTERED DAILY RECORD HIGHS ARE  
POSSIBLE. BY SUNDAY, A COLD FRONT AHEAD OF THE NORTHWEST LOW WILL  
CROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS BEFORE PROVIDING COOLING RELIEF TO  
AREAS FARTHER EAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF  
THE PLAINS WILL STAY ON THE HOT SIDE WITH HIGHS 5-10F ABOVE NORMAL  
THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGH TEMPS 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WILL  
SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS THE WEST FRIDAY-SUNDAY AND THEN LIKELY  
TREND CLOSER TO NORMAL BY MONDAY BASED ON THE EXPECTED EASTWARD  
PROGRESSION OF THE WESTERN LOW.  
 
JACKSON  
 
ADDITIONAL 3-7 DAY HAZARD INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON THE WPC  
MEDIUM RANGE HAZARDS OUTLOOK CHART AT:  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP  
 
WPC MEDIUM RANGE 500MB HEIGHTS, SURFACE SYSTEMS, WEATHER GRIDS,  
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION, EXPERIMENTAL EXCESSIVE RAINFALL  
OUTLOOK, WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK PROBABILITIES AND HEAT INDICES ARE  
AT:  
 
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST500_WBG.GIF  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST_WBG_CONUS.GIF  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/5KM_GRIDS/5KM_GRIDSBODY.HTML  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/DAY4-7.SHTML  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=ERO  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/WWD/PWPF_D47/PWPF_MEDR.PHP?DAY=4  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HEAT_INDEX.SHTML  
 

 
 

 
 
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