701  
FXUS02 KWBC 141900  
PMDEPD  
 
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
258 PM EDT TUE JUN 14 2022  
 
VALID 12Z FRI JUN 17 2022 - 12Z TUE JUN 21 2022  
 
...HEAT WAVE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY  
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, SLOWLY MODERATING AND SHIFTING SLIGHTLY  
EASTWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK...  
 
   
..OVERVIEW
 
 
A STRONG MID-UPPER HIGH IS FORECAST TO TAKE HOLD OF THE CENTRAL  
U.S. LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH SOME GRADUAL SUPPRESSION  
INTO NEXT WEEK. EXPECT WIDESPREAD HOT TEMPERATURES UNDERNEATH THE  
RIDGE, WITH HIGHS REACHING 100F AS FAR NORTH AS THE DAKOTAS. THE  
CENTRAL U.S. RIDGE WILL SEPARATE AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP TROUGH/LOW  
MOVING FROM THE WEST COAST LATE WEEK INTO THE NORTHWEST WHILE  
WEAKENING EARLY NEXT WEEK AND TROUGHING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. THIS  
PATTERN SHOULD ALLOW FOR AN EARLY MONSOON TYPE PATTERN TO SET UP  
IN THE FOUR CORNERS STATES ALONG WITH MOISTURE AND RAIN CHANCES IN  
THE NORTHWEST, AS WELL AS POSSIBILITIES FOR RAIN IN NORTHWEST FLOW  
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION, AND SCATTERED DIURNAL SHOWERS AND  
STORMS ACROSS FLORIDA.  
 
   
..GUIDANCE/PREDICTABILITY EVALUATION
 
 
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL UPPER  
LEVEL/SURFACE PATTERN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE UPPER  
HIGH/RIDGE WILL FLIRT WITH OR EXCEED 594DM AT THE 500MB LEVEL AT  
TIMES AS IT MEANDERS AROUND THE LOWER HALF OF THE MISSISSIPPI  
VALLEY, WITH ONLY SMALL VARIATIONS IN MODEL GUIDANCE. TROUGHING  
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST IS ALSO FAIRLY AGREEABLE INITIALLY, THOUGH  
THE BIGGEST DIFFERENCES LIE IN THE POTENTIAL AND TIMING FOR AN  
UPPER LOW TO CLOSE OFF AROUND SUN-MON OVER THE  
NORTHEAST/SOUTHEASTERN CANADA, WHICH COULD AFFECT SURFACE LOW  
PLACEMENT. THE 00Z UKMET WAS PARTICULARLY DEEP WITH THIS UPPER LOW  
WHILE SOME ECMWF RUNS INCLUDING YESTERDAY'S AND TODAY'S 12Z RUNS  
WERE WEAKER. THE 00Z ECMWF SEEMED LIKE A GOOD MIDDLE GROUND,  
HOWEVER. MEANWHILE WITH THE WESTERN TROUGHING, THERE ARE SOME  
DETAIL DIFFERENCES FOR ENERGY WITHIN THE TROUGH, INCLUDING LATE  
THIS WEEK WHEN SOME MODELS LIKE THE UKMET INDICATE SPLITTING  
ENERGY WITH TWO SMALL CLOSED LOWS WITHIN IT. THERE REMAIN SOME  
SLIGHT TIMING DIFFERENCES IN ITS EJECTION EASTWARD AS WELL--THE  
00Z GFS WAS ON THE FASTER END. OVERALL, MODEL AGREEMENT WAS  
SUFFICIENT TO USE A MULTI-MODEL DETERMINISTIC BLEND FAVORING THE  
00Z ECMWF AND 00/06Z GFS FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD, WITH  
PERHAPS MORE OF A DETERMINISTIC MODELS COMPONENT COMPARED TO A  
TYPICAL DISTRIBUTION OF MODELS/MEANS EVEN THROUGH THE END OF THE  
PERIOD GIVEN THE FAIRLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT.  
 
   
..SENSIBLE WEATHER/THREAT HIGHLIGHTS
 
 
THE COLD FRONT REACHING THE EAST COAST LATE THIS WEEK WILL PRODUCE  
SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH SOME RAINFALL ALSO POSSIBLE  
FARTHER BACK TO THE WEST. THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH SETTING UP NEAR  
THE EAST COAST AND POSSIBLE UPPER LOW OVER MAINE AND/OR THE  
CANADIAN MARITIMES MAY BRING MULTIPLE DAYS OF COOL AND AT TIMES  
SHOWERY WEATHER TO THE NORTHEAST. RECENT MODELS HAVE INCREASED  
RAIN AMOUNTS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES STATES THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY  
NEXT WEEK WITH AN IMPULSE MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW  
PATTERN. THE SOUTHEAST AND GULF COAST REGIONS WILL SEE DIURNALLY  
FAVORED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS WEEK AND THEN OVER THE  
FLORIDA PENINSULA FROM THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK AS THE FRONT  
PUSHING INTO THE SOUTHEAST STALLS. THE UPPER TROUGH REACHING THE  
NORTHWEST COAST BY FRIDAY NIGHT OR EARLY SATURDAY SHOULD INITIALLY  
BRING LIGHT TO LOCALLY MODERATE RAINFALL TO PARTS OF THE  
NORTHWEST. PRECIPITATION EXTENDING INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES BY  
THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK (SNOW LIKELY LIMITED TO HIGHEST  
ELEVATIONS) MAY BECOME HEAVIER DEPENDING ON EXACTLY HOW ENERGY  
EJECTS FROM THE MEAN TROUGH AND THE DEGREE OF INTERACTION WITH  
LEADING MOISTURE FLOW FROM THE SOUTH. THE UNUSUALLY EARLY MONSOON  
TYPE PATTERN WILL BRING MUCH ABOVE NORMAL MOISTURE FOR THE TIME OF  
YEAR NORTHWARD THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS STATES AND VICINITY FROM  
LATE THIS WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND, SUPPORTING AN INCREASE IN  
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION.  
RAIN/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE  
MOISTURE INTERACTS WITH THE FRONT SLOWLY ADVANCING THROUGH THE  
WEST.  
 
THE MOST ANOMALOUS TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE WITH A  
HEAT WAVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE PLAINS, WITH MOST AREAS  
SEEING A COUPLE DAYS WITH HIGHS REACHING 20-25F ABOVE NORMAL THIS  
WEEKEND. THIS HEAT MAY PIVOT AROUND THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE  
PLAINS WHERE PLUS 10-20F ANOMALIES MAY BE MORE PERSISTENT. SOME  
DAILY RECORDS FOR HIGHS AND WARM LOWS WILL BE POSSIBLE, WITH EVEN  
SOME POTENTIAL FOR A FEW MONTHLY RECORDS FOR WARM LOWS, GIVEN THAT  
LOWS IN THE UPPER 70S ARE FORECAST IN PORTIONS OF THE  
NORTH-CENTRAL U.S. A FRONT MOVING INTO THE PLAINS SHOULD START A  
MODEST COOLING TREND/EASTWARD SHIFT OF THE HEAT EARLY NEXT WEEK.  
THE EAST WILL SEE A PRONOUNCED COOLING TREND HEADING INTO THE  
WEEKEND, WITH HIGHS UP TO 5-10F BELOW NORMAL OVER THE NORTHEAST.  
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK THE PLAINS/MISSISSIPPI VALLEY UPPER RIDGE MAY  
REACH FAR ENOUGH EAST TO BRING A RETURN OF HOT WEATHER TO THE  
TENNESSEE VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST, WITH DECENT COVERAGE OF PLUS  
10-15F HIGH TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES NEXT TUESDAY. COOL AIR PUSHING  
INTO THE WEST LATE WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL SUPPORT HIGHS UP  
TO 10-15F BELOW NORMAL BEFORE READINGS TREND CLOSER TO NORMAL  
EARLY NEXT WEEK.  
 
TATE/RAUSCH  
 
ADDITIONAL 3-7 DAY HAZARD INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON THE WPC  
MEDIUM RANGE HAZARDS OUTLOOK CHART AT:  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP  
 
WPC MEDIUM RANGE 500MB HEIGHTS, SURFACE SYSTEMS, WEATHER GRIDS,  
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION, EXPERIMENTAL EXCESSIVE RAINFALL  
OUTLOOK, WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK PROBABILITIES AND HEAT INDICES ARE  
AT:  
 
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST500_WBG.GIF  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST_WBG_CONUS.GIF  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/5KM_GRIDS/5KM_GRIDSBODY.HTML  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/DAY4-7.SHTML  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=ERO  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/WWD/PWPF_D47/PWPF_MEDR.PHP?DAY=4  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HEAT_INDEX.SHTML  
 

 
 

 
 
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