628  
FXUS02 KWBC 171924  
PMDEPD  
 
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
322 PM EDT FRI JUN 17 2022  
 
VALID 12Z MON JUN 20 2022 - 12Z FRI JUN 24 2022  
 
...EXPANSIVE AREA OF HEAT TO SHIFT FROM THE NORTHERN  
PLAINS/MIDWEST INTO THE SOUTH NEXT WEEK...  
 
   
..OVERVIEW AND GUIDANCE/PREDICTABILITY EVALUATION
 
 
THE OVERALL PATTERN OF TROUGHING IN THE WEST AND NORTHERN TIER AND  
PERSISTENT RIDGING IN THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND DEEP SOUTH IS  
CAPTURED REASONABLY WELL BY THE LATEST GUIDANCE. A GENERAL MODEL  
BLEND OF 00Z EC/CMC/UK AND 06Z GFS WAS UTILIZED ON DAYS 3 AND 4  
WITH THE INCLUSION OF THE 00Z GFS AS IT WAS FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH  
THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN. SOME SMALL SCALE DIFFERENCES WITH  
RESPECT TO THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS PROMPTED THE  
INTRODUCTION OF THE 06Z GEFS TO THE GMB ON DAY 5. WITH A FAIRLY  
CONSISTENT SIGNAL FOR ZONAL FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHERN TIER  
STATES, FOCUS SHIFTS TO AN UPPER LOW APPROACHING FROM THE BRITISH  
COLUMBIA COAST ON DAYS 6 & 7. WHILE THE ENSEMBLES ARE AGREEABLE  
WITH RESPECT TO TIMING AND INTENSITY DETAILS OF THE UPPER LOW, THE  
DETERMINISTIC SUITES, PARTICULARLY THE 06Z GFS AND 00Z EC HAVE  
NOTABLE TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE EC BEING A BIT MORE  
PROGRESSIVE THAN THE GFS. THE LATEST MODEL TRENDS HAVE TUCKED THE  
LOW FARTHER INLAND AS IT GLIDES DOWN THE BC COAST.  
 
   
..SENSIBLE WEATHER/THREAT HIGHLIGHTS
 
 
THE BIGGEST WEATHER HAZARD DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD WILL BE  
A DOME OF HEAT AND ANOMALOUS WARMTH EXPANDING FROM THE UPPER  
MIDWEST ON MONDAY INTO THE SOUTHERN STATES BY WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY.  
THE GREATEST ANOMALIES ARE EXPECTED FROM PARTS OF THE CENTRAL  
PLAINS TO THE UPPER MIDWEST WITH DAYTIME HIGHS AS MUCH AS 20 TO 25  
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THIS EQUATES TO HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID  
TO UPPER 90S AND LOW 100S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER  
70S STRUGGLING TO PROVIDE MUCH RELIEF. RECORD HIGH MAX AND MIN  
TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY IN MANY PLACES. BY TUESDAY TO FRIDAY, THE  
HEAT SUPPRESSES SOUTH WITH THE UPPER RIDGE INTO THE MIDWEST AND  
EVENTUALLY THE SOUTH WITH SEVERAL DAYS OF HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR  
OR EXCEEDING 100F FROM CENTRAL TEXAS TO THE SOUTHEAST AND  
WIDESPREAD HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS LIKELY TO BE CHALLENGED.  
 
TO THE NORTH, SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN TIER WILL FOCUS  
SOME AREAS OF LOCALLY MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION, WITH THE  
BEST POTENTIAL OVER/NEAR THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND PLAINS ON  
MONDAY. HIGHEST ELEVATIONS MAY SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW AS WELL WITH  
THIS SYSTEM. NORTHWARD STREAMING ANOMALOUS MOISTURE WEST OF THE  
RIDGE WILL BRING AN UNUSUALLY EARLY MONSOON TYPE PATTERN TO PARTS  
OF THE FOUR CORNERS STATES AND VICINITY, MAINLY EARLY IN THE WEEK,  
SUPPORTING AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF RAINFALL  
ACROSS THE REGION. BY MID WEEK, THERE ARE STILL MIXED SIGNALS OVER  
HOW MUCH RAINFALL THE INTERACTION OF THIS MOISTURE WITH THE  
WESTERN FRONT ADVANCING INTO THE PLAINS WILL PRODUCE. HOWEVER THE  
POTENTIAL FOR SOME TRAINING/REPEAT ACTIVITY MAY HAVE TO BE  
MONITORED AS CONSENSUS SHOWS THIS PLAINS FRONT BECOMING ALIGNED  
WEST-EAST ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE WESTERLIES BY  
WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY. FARTHER EAST, AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS MAY PUSH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND POSSIBLY INTO  
THE NORTHEAST AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING WARM FRONT, WITH SOME ACTIVITY  
POSSIBLY ON THE HEAVY SIDE. THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD SEE  
MULTIPLE DAYS OF DIURNAL SHOWERS/STORMS FROM THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT  
WEEK AS A FRONT PUSHING INTO AREA DECELERATES AND EVENTUALLY  
DISSIPATES.  
 
SANTORELLI/KEBEDE  
 
ADDITIONAL 3-7 DAY HAZARD INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON THE WPC  
MEDIUM RANGE HAZARDS OUTLOOK CHART AT:  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP  
 
HAZARDS:  
- HEAVY RAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES, THE SOUTHERN  
PLAINS, AND THE SOUTHWEST, MON-TUE, JUN 20-JUN 21.  
- HEAVY RAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND THE  
NORTHERN ROCKIES, MON, JUN 20.  
- FLOODING OCCURRING OR IMMINENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE UPPER  
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, THE NORTHERN PLAINS, AND THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.  
- FLOODING LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND THE  
NORTHERN ROCKIES.  
- EXCESSIVE HEAT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS, THE LOWER  
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, THE TENNESSEE VALLEY, THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI  
VALLEY, THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS, THE SOUTHEAST, THE SOUTHERN  
PLAINS, AND THE OHIO VALLEY, MON-FRI, JUN 20-JUN 24.  
- EXCESSIVE HEAT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS, THE MIDDLE  
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, THE GREAT LAKES, THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY,  
AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS, MON, JUN 20.  
- EXCESSIVE HEAT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS, THE MIDDLE  
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, THE GREAT LAKES, AND THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI  
VALLEY, MON-TUE, JUN 20-JUN 21.  
- EXCESSIVE HEAT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS, THE  
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, THE MID-ATLANTIC, THE SOUTHERN  
APPALACHIANS, THE GREAT LAKES, AND THE OHIO VALLEY, TUE-WED, JUN  
21-JUN 22.  
- EXCESSIVE HEAT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS, THE  
TENNESSEE VALLEY, THE MID-ATLANTIC, THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS, THE  
SOUTHEAST, AND THE OHIO VALLEY, TUE-FRI, JUN 21-JUN 24.  
 
WPC MEDIUM RANGE 500MB HEIGHTS, SURFACE SYSTEMS, WEATHER GRIDS,  
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION, EXPERIMENTAL EXCESSIVE RAINFALL  
OUTLOOK, WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK PROBABILITIES AND HEAT INDICES ARE  
AT:  
 
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST500_WBG.GIF  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST_WBG_CONUS.GIF  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/5KM_GRIDS/5KM_GRIDSBODY.HTML  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/DAY4-7.SHTML  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=ERO  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/WWD/PWPF_D47/PWPF_MEDR.PHP?DAY=4  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HEAT_INDEX.SHTML  
 

 
 

 
 
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