308  
FXUS02 KWBC 240658  
PMDEPD  
 
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
256 AM EDT FRI JUN 24 2022  
 
VALID 12Z MON JUN 27 2022 - 12Z FRI JUL 01 2022  
   
..OVERVIEW
 
 
GUIDANCE STILL AGREES THAT A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE  
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CONUS WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF THE  
MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD, FORCING STORM TRACKS THROUGH THE NORTHERN  
TIER. A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES  
WILL AMPLIFY SOME AS IT MOVES INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND THE  
NORTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. BEHIND THIS, AMPLIFIED RIDGING WILL  
BUILD OVER THE NORTHWEST U.S., AND SLIDE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS  
AS A CLOSED LOW/UPPER TROUGH UNCERTAINLY SETTLES OVER THE PACIFIC  
NORTHWEST, PERHAPS BY AROUND WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE, MONSOONAL  
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO PERSIST INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION  
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD, WITH THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR HEAVIER TO  
EXCESSIVE RAINS TO REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO  
EARLY NEXT WEEK.  
   
..GUIDANCE EVALUATION/PREDICTABILITY ASSESSMENT
 
 
GUIDANCE NOW SEEM PRETTY WELL CLUSTERED THROUGH MEDIUM RANGE  
TIMESCALES, BOLSTERING CONFIDENCE IN THE LARGER SCALE PATTERN  
EVOLUTION. THE WPC MEDIUM RANGE PRODUCT SUITE WAS PRIMARILY  
DERIVED FROM A COMPOSITE BLEND OF THE 18 UTC GFS AND 12 UTC  
ECMWF/UKMET/CANADIAN FOR DAYS 3-5 (MON-WED) AND THEN ADDED THE  
GEFS/ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS INTO THE COMPOSITE IN PLACE OF THE UKMET  
FOR DAYS 6/7 (NEXT THURSDAY/FRIDAY). PRODUCT CONTINUITY IS  
DECENTLY MAINTAINED AND INDIVIDUAL SYSTEM FORECAST DIFFERENCES  
SEEM WELL ADDRESSED WITH THIS BLENDING PROCESS, CONSISTENT WITH  
PREDICTABILITY. 00 UTC GUIDANCE REMAINS IN LINE, BUT SYSTEM  
DIFFERENCES TO RESOLVE REMAIN MOST NOTABLE AT LONGER TIME FRAMES  
WITH PACIFIC TROUGH PROGRESSION INTO THE NORTHWEST AND ENERGETIC  
FLOW OVER CENTRAL CANADA.  
   
..SENSIBLE WEATHER/THREAT HIGHLIGHTS
 
 
ANOMALOUSLY HIGH MONSOONAL MOISTURE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, LIKELY  
TIED AT LEAST IN PART TO TROPICAL STORM CELIA IN THE EAST PACIFIC,  
WILL CONTINUE STREAMING INTO THE FOUR CORNERS STATES INTO EARLY  
NEXT WEEK. LOCALLY HEAVY TO EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE  
EACH DAY, PARTICULARLY OVER SENSITIVE BURN SCAR AREAS AND  
CONSIDERING THE MULTIPLE DAY REPEATING NATURE OF THIS ACTIVITY.  
THE BEST CHANCE FOR IMPACTFUL RAINFALL LOOKS TO BE OVER PARTS OF  
COLORADO/NEW MEXICO WITH FAVORABLE UPSLOPE FLOW INTERACTING WITH  
THE MOISTURE ALREADY IN PLACE. A SLIGHT RISK WAS MAINTAINED ACROSS  
NORTHERN NEW MEXICO ON THE EXPERIMENTAL DAY 4 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL  
OUTLOOK CENTERED ON MONDAY WHERE GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT OVERLAPPED  
WITH AREAS THAT HAVE SEEN ANOMALOUS RAINFALL ALREADY. ACTIVITY  
THEN WANES.  
 
A COLD FRONT SHOULD BE FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE THROUGH THE EAST MONDAY,  
BUT SHOULD FOCUS ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO FUEL SOME  
LOCALLY HEAVY CONVECTION. A SETTLING OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE GULF  
COAST AS WELL AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT DROPPING INTO THE REGION,  
SHOULD ALLOW FOR ENHANCED RAINFALL INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK  
FROM FLORIDA TO ALONG THE GULF COAST AS AIDED BY PROTRACTED  
ONSHORE FETCH OF MOISTURE.  
 
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK, TEMPERATURES ALL ACROSS THE SOUTH SHOULD  
FINALLY TREND BACK TOWARDS NORMAL. RELATIVELY COOLER TEMPERATURES  
WITH WELL BELOW NORMAL HIGHS ARE LIKELY TO BE MOST PERSISTENT OVER  
PARTS OF NEW MEXICO AND COLORADO GIVEN THE MONSOONAL CLOUDS AND  
RAIN COVERAGE. IN THE WEST, RIDGING THROUGH THE REGION SHOULD  
PRESENT AN EXCESSIVE HEAT THREAT ACROSS PARTS OF ESPECIALLY THE  
NORTHWEST INTO MONDAY WITH THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THEN  
WORKING THROUGH THE ROCKIES, PLAINS, MIDWEST AND THEN  
EAST/SOUTHEAST TUESDAY-NEXT FRIDAY AS WE HEAD INTO JULY.  
 
SCHICHTEL  
 
ADDITIONAL 3-7 DAY HAZARD INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON THE WPC  
MEDIUM RANGE HAZARDS OUTLOOK CHART AT:  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP  
 
WPC MEDIUM RANGE 500MB HEIGHTS, SURFACE SYSTEMS, WEATHER GRIDS,  
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION, EXPERIMENTAL EXCESSIVE RAINFALL  
OUTLOOK, WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK PROBABILITIES AND HEAT INDICES ARE  
AT:  
 
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST500_WBG.GIF  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST_WBG_CONUS.GIF  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/5KM_GRIDS/5KM_GRIDSBODY.HTML  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/DAY4-7.SHTML  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=ERO  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/WWD/PWPF_D47/PWPF_MEDR.PHP?DAY=4  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HEAT_INDEX.SHTML  
 

 
 

 
 
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