153  
FXUS02 KWBC 250645  
PMDEPD  
 
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
243 AM EDT SAT JUN 25 2022  
 
VALID 12Z TUE JUN 28 2022 - 12Z SAT JUL 02 2022  
 
...PATTERN OVERVIEW AND WEATHER/HAZARD HIGHLIGHTS..  
 
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE NATION  
SHOULD OFFER WIDESPREAD EARLY SUMMER HEAT AND ALSO HOLD A MAIN  
STORM TRACK OVER THE U.S. NORTHERN TIER. A LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH  
WILL EXIT THE MID-ATLANTIC AND THE NORTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH  
A WAVY TRAILING FRONT SETTLING DOWN AND LINGERING OVER THE  
SOUTHEAST AND GULF COAST TO POOL DEEP/TROPICAL MOISTURE TO FUEL  
SOME SLOW MOVING CONVECTIVE DOWNPOURS. SEVERAL MORE SHORTWAVES AND  
FRONTAL SYSTEMS WILL TRAVERSE THE NORTHERN TIER TO FOCUS PERIODIC  
STRONG CONVECTION AND DOWNPOURS NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL OCCUR AS  
ADDITIONAL HEAT FOCUSING UPPER RIDGING BUILT OVER THE NORTHERN  
GREAT BASIL/ROCKIES BY TUESDAY SLIDES STEADILY EASTWARD OVER THE  
NORTH-CENTRAL U.S. THEN MIDWEST INTO LATER NEXT WEEK AS A MEAN  
UPPER TROUGH SETTLES INTO AND MODERATES THE NORTHWEST.  
   
..GUIDANCE EVALUATION/PREDICTABILITY ASSESSMENT
 
 
GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS SEEM REASONABLY WELL CLUSTERED WELL INTO MEDIUM  
RANGE TIMESCALES IN A PATTERN WITH ABOVE NORMAL PREDICTABILITY  
WITH THE MID-LARGER SCALE PATTERN EVOLUTION. THE WPC MEDIUM RANGE  
PRODUCT SUITE WAS PRIMARILY DERIVED FROM A COMPOSITE BLEND OF THE  
18 UTC GFS AND 12 UTC ECMWF/UKMET/CANADIAN MODELS ALONG WITH THE  
01 UTC NATIONAL BLEND OF MODELS (NBM) FOR DAYS 3-5 (TUE-THU). THE  
GFS/ECMWF STAY MOST COMPATIBLE WITH GEFS/ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS INTO  
DAYS 6/7 (NEXT FRIDAY/SATURDAY), SO THAT COMPOSITE BLEND WAS  
UTILIZED FOR THAT PERIOD ALONG WITH THE NBM. WPC PRODUCT  
CONTINUITY IS GOOD AND INDIVIDUAL SYSTEM FORECAST DIFFERENCES SEEM  
WELL ADDRESSED BY THE BLENDING PROCESS, CONSISTENT WITH  
PREDICTABILITY. 00 UTC GUIDANCE SEEMS OVERALL IN LINE.  
 
SCHICHTEL  
 
ADDITIONAL 3-7 DAY HAZARD INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON THE WPC  
MEDIUM RANGE HAZARDS OUTLOOK CHART AT:  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP  
 
WPC MEDIUM RANGE 500MB HEIGHTS, SURFACE SYSTEMS, WEATHER GRIDS,  
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION, EXPERIMENTAL EXCESSIVE RAINFALL  
OUTLOOK, WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK PROBABILITIES AND HEAT INDICES ARE  
AT:  
 
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST500_WBG.GIF  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST_WBG_CONUS.GIF  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/5KM_GRIDS/5KM_GRIDSBODY.HTML  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/DAY4-7.SHTML  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=ERO  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/WWD/PWPF_D47/PWPF_MEDR.PHP?DAY=4  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HEAT_INDEX.SHTML  
 

 
 

 
 
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