316  
FXUS02 KWBC 251855  
PMDEPD  
 
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
255 PM EDT SAT JUN 25 2022  
 
VALID 12Z TUE JUN 28 2022 - 12Z SAT JUL 02 2022  
 
...PATTERN OVERVIEW AND WEATHER/HAZARD HIGHLIGHTS..  
 
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE  
CONUS THROUGHOUT NEXT WEEK WHILE FAST FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN  
TIER WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY PERIODIC SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN  
THE FLOW. AT THE START OF THE PERIOD, A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL  
FORCE A SURFACE FRONT SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST AND GULF  
COAST, BECOMING STALLED/DRAPED ALONG THE GULF COAST THROUGHOUT  
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. THIS BOUNDARY MAY ACT AS THE FOCUS FOR DEEPER  
MOISTURE AND AN INCREASED COVERAGE OF LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS.  
ELSEWHERE, ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE NORTHERN  
PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES MID TO LATE WEEK, BRINGING PERIODIC CHANCES  
FOR STRONGER CONVECTION AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. AHEAD OF THAT  
TROUGH PASSAGE, MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PROGRESS FROM  
THE ROCKIES TO THE PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY THE NORTHEAST BY THE END  
OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.  
   
..GUIDANCE EVALUATION/PREDICTABILITY ASSESSMENT
 
 
THE AVAILABLE DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWED VERY GOOD  
AGREEMENT AND CLUSTERING WITH THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN FOR  
NEXT WEEK, GIVING WAY TO ABOVE NORMAL PREDICTABILITY AND  
CONFIDENCE. THE MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST BLEND WAS COMPOSED OF A NEAR  
EQUAL WEIGHT OF THE 06Z GFS, 00Z ECMWF/CMC/UKMET FOR DAYS 3-5  
FOLLOWED BY INCLUSION OF THE ECENS/GEFS MEANS FOR DAYS 6-7 WHERE  
TYPICAL FORECAST SPREAD WAS NOTED. ACROSS THE NORTHWEST GULF, THE  
TRAILING FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIKELY TO BE DRAPED IN THE REGION MAY  
EVENTUALLY ACT AS A FOCUS FOR LOW PRESSURE FORMATION. THE GFS HAS  
BEEN MORE BULLISH WITH THIS SCENARIO WITH THE LOW DRIFTING SLOWLY  
WESTWARD TOWARD THE TEXAS COAST. WHILE THE 12Z GFS HAS BACKED OFF  
SOMEWHAT IN THIS SCENARIO, SOME DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE AND COULD  
BRING A FOCUS FOR HEAVIER RAINFALL.  
 
GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS SEEM REASONABLY WELL CLUSTERED WELL INTO MEDIUM  
RANGE TIMESCALES IN A PATTERN WITH ABOVE NORMAL PREDICTABILITY  
WITH THE MID-LARGER SCALE PATTERN EVOLUTION. THE WPC MEDIUM RANGE  
PRODUCT SUITE WAS PRIMARILY DERIVED FROM A COMPOSITE BLEND OF THE  
18 UTC GFS AND 12 UTC ECMWF/UKMET/CANADIAN MODELS ALONG WITH THE  
01 UTC NATIONAL BLEND OF MODELS (NBM) FOR DAYS 3-5 (TUE-THU). THE  
GFS/ECMWF STAY MOST COMPATIBLE WITH GEFS/ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS INTO  
DAYS 6/7 (NEXT FRIDAY/SATURDAY), SO THAT COMPOSITE BLEND WAS  
UTILIZED FOR THAT PERIOD ALONG WITH THE NBM. WPC PRODUCT  
CONTINUITY IS GOOD AND INDIVIDUAL SYSTEM FORECAST DIFFERENCES SEEM  
WELL ADDRESSED BY THE BLENDING PROCESS, CONSISTENT WITH  
PREDICTABILITY. 00 UTC GUIDANCE SEEMS OVERALL IN LINE.  
 
TAYLOR  
 
ADDITIONAL 3-7 DAY HAZARD INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON THE WPC  
MEDIUM RANGE HAZARDS OUTLOOK CHART AT:  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP  
 
WPC MEDIUM RANGE 500MB HEIGHTS, SURFACE SYSTEMS, WEATHER GRIDS,  
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION, EXPERIMENTAL EXCESSIVE RAINFALL  
OUTLOOK, WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK PROBABILITIES AND HEAT INDICES ARE  
AT:  
 
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST500_WBG.GIF  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST_WBG_CONUS.GIF  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/5KM_GRIDS/5KM_GRIDSBODY.HTML  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/DAY4-7.SHTML  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=ERO  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/WWD/PWPF_D47/PWPF_MEDR.PHP?DAY=4  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HEAT_INDEX.SHTML  
 

 
 

 
 
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