461  
FXUS02 KWBC 260658  
PMDEPD  
 
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
257 AM EDT SUN JUN 26 2022  
 
VALID 12Z WED JUN 29 2022 - 12Z SUN JUL 3 2022  
 
...PATTERN OVERVIEW AND WEATHER/HAZARD HIGHLIGHTS..  
 
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE  
CONUS THROUGHOUT NEXT WEEK, WHILE PROGRESSIVE FLOW ALOFT ACROSS  
THE NORTHERN TIER WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY PERIODIC SHORTWAVE  
TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW. FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, A  
STATIONARY FRONT WILL LIKELY BE STALLED ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST  
AND GULF COAST REGION, AND THIS BOUNDARY MAY ACT AS THE FOCUS FOR  
ENHANCED MOISTURE AND GREATER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.  
ELSEWHERE, ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES ACROSS THE NORTHERN  
PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES REGION MID TO LATE WEEK, BRINGING PERIODIC  
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. AHEAD OF  
THAT TROUGH PASSAGE, HOT TEMPERATURES WILL PROGRESS FROM THE  
ROCKIES TO THE PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY THE NORTHEAST BY THE END OF  
THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK, FOLLOWED BY SLIGHTLY COOLER READINGS BY  
NEXT SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT SETTLES SOUTHWARD.  
   
..GUIDANCE EVALUATION/PREDICTABILITY ASSESSMENT
 
 
THE 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE SUITE IS IN VERY GOOD SYNOPTIC SCALE  
AGREEMENT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK ACROSS THE NATION. GUIDANCE  
SOLUTIONS SEEM REASONABLY WELL CLUSTERED WELL INTO MEDIUM RANGE  
TIMESCALES IN A PATTERN WITH ABOVE NORMAL PREDICTABILITY WITH THE  
MID-LARGER SCALE PATTERN EVOLUTION. THE WPC MEDIUM RANGE PRODUCT  
SUITE WAS PRIMARILY DERIVED FROM A DETERMINISTIC MODEL BLEND  
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY, AND THEN SLIGHTLY MORE OF THE ENSEMBLE MEANS  
GOING INTO NEXT WEEKEND TO ACCOUNT FOR GREATER DIFFERENCES IN THE  
MESOSCALE DETAILS. THIS MAINTAINS GOOD OVERALL WPC PRODUCT  
CONTINUITY, AND INDIVIDUAL SYSTEM FORECAST DIFFERENCES SEEM WELL  
ADDRESSED BY THE MODE BLEND.  
 
HAMRICK  
 
ADDITIONAL 3-7 DAY HAZARD INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON THE WPC  
MEDIUM RANGE HAZARDS OUTLOOK CHART AT:  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP  
 
WPC MEDIUM RANGE 500MB HEIGHTS, SURFACE SYSTEMS, WEATHER GRIDS,  
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION, EXPERIMENTAL EXCESSIVE RAINFALL  
OUTLOOK, WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK PROBABILITIES AND HEAT INDICES ARE  
AT:  
 
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST500_WBG.GIF  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST_WBG_CONUS.GIF  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/5KM_GRIDS/5KM_GRIDSBODY.HTML  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/DAY4-7.SHTML  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=ERO  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/WWD/PWPF_D47/PWPF_MEDR.PHP?DAY=4  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HEAT_INDEX.SHTML  
 

 
 

 
 
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