694  
FXUS02 KWBC 261900  
PMDEPD  
 
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
259 PM EDT SUN JUN 26 2022  
 
VALID 12Z WED JUN 29 2022 - 12Z SUN JUL 03 2022  
 
...PATTERN OVERVIEW AND WEATHER/HAZARD HIGHLIGHTS..  
 
A SUMMERTIME UPPER RIDGE WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE  
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE LOWER 48 STATES OVER THE NEXT WEEK. A WAVY  
STATIONARY FRONT WILL LIKELY BE STALLED ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST  
AND GULF COAST REGION INTO MID-LATE WEEK AND THIS BOUNDARY MAY ACT  
AS THE FOCUS FOR ENHANCED GULF OF MEXICO/TROPICAL MOISTURE AND  
GREATER COVERAGE OF CONVECTION/LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS INLAND.  
MEANWHILE, PROGRESSIVE FLOW ALOFT ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE  
U.S. NORTHERN TIER WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY PERIODIC SHORTWAVE  
TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW. A LEAD UPPER TROUGH WILL TRACK FROM  
THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES TO THE NORTHEAST MID-LATE WEEK AND A  
SECOND UPPER TROUGH EXPECTED TO WORK FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO  
THE NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY MAY BOTH BRING PERIODIC CHANCES FOR  
SHOWERS/STORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. UNDERNEATH, LATE WEEK  
MOISTURE RETURN BACK THROUGH THE SOUTH-CENTRAL ROCKIES MAY FUEL  
SOME ENHANCED RAINFALL THERE AND HEAVIER CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY MAY  
ALSO DEVELOPE DOWNSTREAM/NORTHEASTWARD ALONG A SAGGING FRONTAL  
ZONE ACROSS THE PLAINS/MIDWEST/NORTHEAST LATER WEEK INTO NEXT  
WEEKEND.  
   
..GUIDANCE EVALUATION/PREDICTABILITY ASSESSMENT
 
 
THE 00/06/12 UTC MODEL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUITES REMAIN IN VERY  
GOOD SYNOPTIC SCALE AGREEMENT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK ACROSS  
MUCH OF THE NATION. GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS SEEM REASONABLY WELL  
CLUSTERED WELL INTO MEDIUM RANGE TIMESCALES IN A PATTERN WITH  
ABOVE NORMAL PREDICTABILITY WITH THE MID-LARGER SCALE PATTERN  
EVOLUTION. THE WPC MEDIUM RANGE PRODUCT SUITE WAS PRIMARILY  
DERIVED FROM A DETERMINISTIC MODEL BLEND THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY, AND  
THEN SLIGHTLY MORE OF THE ENSEMBLE MEANS GOING INTO NEXT WEEKEND  
TO ACCOUNT FOR GREATER DIFFERENCES IN THE MESOSCALE DETAILS. THIS  
MAINTAINS GOOD OVERALL WPC PRODUCT CONTINUITY, AND INDIVIDUAL  
SYSTEM FORECAST DIFFERENCES SEEM WELL MITIGATED BY THE BLEND  
PROCESS CONSISTENT WITH UNCERTAINTY.  
 
HAMRICK/SCHICHTEL  
 
ADDITIONAL 3-7 DAY HAZARD INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON THE WPC  
MEDIUM RANGE HAZARDS OUTLOOK CHART AT:  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP  
 
WPC MEDIUM RANGE 500MB HEIGHTS, SURFACE SYSTEMS, WEATHER GRIDS,  
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION, EXPERIMENTAL EXCESSIVE RAINFALL  
OUTLOOK, WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK PROBABILITIES AND HEAT INDICES ARE  
AT:  
 
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST500_WBG.GIF  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST_WBG_CONUS.GIF  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/5KM_GRIDS/5KM_GRIDSBODY.HTML  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/DAY4-7.SHTML  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=ERO  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/WWD/PWPF_D47/PWPF_MEDR.PHP?DAY=4  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HEAT_INDEX.SHTML  
 

 
 

 
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab HPC Page Main Text Page