903  
FXUS02 KWBC 270654  
PMDEPD  
 
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
253 AM EDT MON JUN 27 2022  
 
VALID 12Z THU JUN 30 2022 - 12Z MON JUL 4 2022  
   
..WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW
 
 
A RELATIVELY ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO BE IN  
PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE NATION FOR THE END OF THE  
WEEK. A DEEP UPPER LOW SITUATED OVER THE HUDSON BAY REGION WILL  
RESULT IN A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST U.S. GOING INTO THE  
WEEKEND, AND A DOWNSTREAM UPPER RIDGE AXIS BUILDS OVER THE PLAINS  
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. MEANWHILE, A TROUGH BUILDS IN THE VICINITY OF  
THE WEST COAST BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD BEHIND A SLOW  
MOVING FRONT.  
   
..GUIDANCE EVALUATION/PREDICTABILITY ASSESSMENT
 
 
THE 00Z MODEL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUITE REMAIN IN VERY GOOD  
SYNOPTIC SCALE AGREEMENT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK ACROSS MUCH  
OF THE NATION. THE WPC MEDIUM RANGE PRODUCT SUITE WAS PRIMARILY  
DERIVED FROM A DETERMINISTIC MODEL BLEND THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY,  
AND THEN SLIGHTLY MORE OF THE ENSEMBLE MEANS GOING INTO SUNDAY AND  
MONDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR GREATER DIFFERENCES IN THE MESOSCALE  
DETAILS. THIS MAINTAINS GOOD OVERALL WPC PRODUCT CONTINUITY, AND  
INDIVIDUAL SYSTEM FORECAST DIFFERENCES SEEM WELL MITIGATED BY THE  
BLEND PROCESS.  
   
..SENSIBLE WEATHER AND POTENTIAL HAZARDS
 
 
A LINGERING STATIONARY FRONT ALONG THE GULF COAST AND SOUTHEAST  
COASTAL U.S. WILL LIKELY PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED TO  
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. THERE  
MAY BE AN ENHANCED AREA OF HEAVIER RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF  
TEXAS BASED ON RECENT GFS/ECMWF RUNS, AND THIS WILL LIKELY BE  
DEPENDENT ON ANY ORGANIZED LOW PRESSURE AREAS THAT DEVELOP OVER  
THE WESTERN GULF. FARTHER NORTH, A CORRIDOR OF SHOWERS AND STORMS  
IS LIKELY ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE SLOWLY  
TRACKING TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE MIDWEST, OHIO VALLEY,  
AND GREAT LAKES REGIONS GOING INTO THE WEEKEND. MONSOONAL  
MOISTURE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION MAY ALSO RESULT IN SCATTERED  
AREAS OF HEAVIER RAINFALL.  
 
IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES, EXPECT READINGS TO BE RUNNING UP TO 10  
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AHEAD OF THE FRONT FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO  
THE NORTHEAST U.S. TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEK, FOLLOWED BY SEASONAL  
TEMPERATURES GOING INTO THE SATURDAY TO MONDAY TIME PERIOD. HEAT  
IS LIKELY TO BUILD AGAIN ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS BY  
NEXT MONDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE BUILDING UPPER RIDGE, AND SLIGHTLY  
COOLER CONDITIONS FOR THE WEST COAST REGION.  
 
HAMRICK  
 
ADDITIONAL 3-7 DAY HAZARD INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON THE WPC  
MEDIUM RANGE HAZARDS OUTLOOK CHART AT:  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP  
 
WPC MEDIUM RANGE 500MB HEIGHTS, SURFACE SYSTEMS, WEATHER GRIDS,  
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION, EXPERIMENTAL EXCESSIVE RAINFALL  
OUTLOOK, WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK PROBABILITIES AND HEAT INDICES ARE  
AT:  
 
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST500_WBG.GIF  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST_WBG_CONUS.GIF  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/5KM_GRIDS/5KM_GRIDSBODY.HTML  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/DAY4-7.SHTML  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=ERO  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/WWD/PWPF_D47/PWPF_MEDR.PHP?DAY=4  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HEAT_INDEX.SHTML  
 

 
 

 
 
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