695  
FXUS02 KWBC 271901  
PMDEPD  
 
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
300 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2022  
 
VALID 12Z THU JUN 30 2022 - 12Z MON JUL 04 2022  
   
..WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW
 
 
A RELATIVELY ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN IN PLACE OVER THE  
NORTHERN TIER OF THE NATION THIS WEEK MAY AMPLIFY OVER THE HOLIDAY  
WEEKEND AS A CLOSED LOW/TROUGH DEVELOPS NEAR THE PACIFIC NW/WEST  
COAST AND AS A HOT RIDGE LINGERING OVER THE U.S. SOUTHERN TIER  
BUILDS OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL STATES. THIS SCENARIO MAY ALSO  
SUPPORT HOLIDAY AMPLIFICATION OF A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST  
U.S. UNDERNEATH A DEEP HUDSON BAY CLOSED VORTEX. NHC IS MONITORING  
A TROPICAL WAVE/DISTURBANCE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO  
UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE.  
   
..GUIDANCE EVALUATION/PREDICTABILITY ASSESSMENT
 
 
THE 00/06/12 UTC MODEL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUITE REMAIN IN VERY  
GOOD SYNOPTIC SCALE AGREEMENT THROUGH MEDIUM RANGE TIME SCALES.  
THE WPC MEDIUM RANGE PRODUCT SUITE WAS PRIMARILY DERIVED FROM A  
MODEL AND SUPPORTING ENSEMBLE MEAN COMPOSITE BLEND DAYS 3-7  
(THURSDAY-JULY 4TH). THIS MAINTAINS GOOD OVERALL WPC PRODUCT  
CONTINUITY, AND INDIVIDUAL SYSTEM FORECAST DIFFERENCES SEEM WELL  
MITIGATED BY THE BLEND PROCESS. POTENTIAL TROPICAL INFLUENCES INTO  
TEXAS LATER THIS WEEK AND SUBSEQUENT DEEP MOISTURE FEED/QPF INLAND  
REMAIN LESS CERTAIN.  
   
..SENSIBLE WEATHER AND POTENTIAL HAZARDS
 
 
A LINGERING STATIONARY FRONT ALONG THE GULF COAST AND SOUTHEAST  
COASTAL U.S. WILL LIKELY PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED TO  
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. THERE  
MAY BE AN ENHANCED AREA OF HEAVIER RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF  
TEXAS BASED ON RECENT CANADIAN/ECMWF RUNS, AND THIS WILL LIKELY BE  
DEPENDENT ON ANY ORGANIZED LOW PRESSURE AREAS THAT DEVELOP OVER  
THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AS PER NHC. FARTHER NORTH, A CORRIDOR  
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IS LIKELY ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT  
THAT WILL BE SLOWLY TRACKING TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE  
MIDWEST, OHIO VALLEY, AND GREAT LAKES REGIONS GOING INTO THE  
WEEKEND. MONSOONAL MOISTURE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION MAY ALSO  
RESULT IN SCATTERED AREAS OF HEAVIER RAINFALL.  
,  
IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES, EXPECT READINGS TO BE RUNNING UP TO 10  
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AHEAD OF THE FRONT FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO  
THE NORTHEAST U.S. TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEK, FOLLOWED BY SEASONAL  
TEMPERATURES GOING INTO THE SATURDAY TO MONDAY TIME PERIOD. HEAT  
IS LIKELY TO BUILD AGAIN ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS BY  
NEXT MONDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE BUILDING UPPER RIDGE, AND SLIGHTLY  
COOLER CONDITIONS FOR THE WEST COAST REGION.  
 
HAMRICK/SCHICHTEL  
 
ADDITIONAL 3-7 DAY HAZARD INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON THE WPC  
MEDIUM RANGE HAZARDS OUTLOOK CHART AT:  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP  
 
WPC MEDIUM RANGE 500MB HEIGHTS, SURFACE SYSTEMS, WEATHER GRIDS,  
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION, EXPERIMENTAL EXCESSIVE RAINFALL  
OUTLOOK, WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK PROBABILITIES AND HEAT INDICES ARE  
AT:  
 
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST500_WBG.GIF  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST_WBG_CONUS.GIF  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/5KM_GRIDS/5KM_GRIDSBODY.HTML  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/DAY4-7.SHTML  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=ERO  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/WWD/PWPF_D47/PWPF_MEDR.PHP?DAY=4  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HEAT_INDEX.SHTML  
 

 
 

 
 
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