042  
FXUS02 KWBC 280649  
PMDEPD  
 
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
249 AM EDT TUE JUN 28 2022  
 
VALID 12Z FRI JUL 01 2022 - 12Z TUE JUL 05 2022  
   
..WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW
 
 
A RELATIVELY FLAT UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN IN PLACE OVER THE  
NORTHERN TIER OF THE NATION THIS WEEK MAY AMPLIFY OVER THE HOLIDAY  
WEEKEND AS A CLOSED LOW/TROUGH DEVELOPS JUST OFFSHORE THE PACIFIC  
NW/WEST COAST AND AS A HOT RIDGE LINGERING OVER THE U.S. SOUTHERN  
TIER BUILDS OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL STATES. THIS SCENARIO MAY ALSO  
SUPPORT HOLIDAY AMPLIFICATION OF A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST  
U.S. UNDERNEATH A DEEP HUDSON BAY CLOSED VORTEX. NHC IS ALSO  
MONITORING A TROPICAL WAVE/DISTURBANCE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF  
MEXICO, RIDING UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE TOWARD TEXAS.  
   
..GUIDANCE EVALUATION/PREDICTABILITY ASSESSMENT
 
 
THE 12 UTC MODEL AND ENSEMBLE SUITE WAS IN VERY GOOD SYNOPTIC  
SCALE AGREEMENT THROUGH MEDIUM RANGE TIME SCALES. THE WPC MEDIUM  
RANGE PRODUCT SUITE WAS PRIMARILY DERIVED FROM A COMPOSITE BLEND  
OF BEST CLUSTERED GUIDANCE FROM THE 12 UTC GFS/ECMWF AND  
GEFS/ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS. THIS MAINTAINS EXCELLENT OVERALL WPC  
PRODUCT CONTINUITY, AND INDIVIDUAL SYSTEM FORECAST DIFFERENCES  
REMAIN WELL MITIGATED BY THE BLEND PROCESS. THE 18 UTC GFS SHOWED  
MORE FLOW AMPLIFICATION AT LONGER TIME FRAMES, BUT WITH LESS  
ENSEMBLE SUPPORT. 00 UTC GUIDANCE TRENDED MORE IN LINE.  
   
..SENSIBLE WEATHER AND POTENTIAL HAZARDS
 
 
A LINGERING STATIONARY FRONT ALONG THE GULF COAST AND SOUTHEAST  
COASTAL U.S. WILL LIKELY PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED TO  
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. THERE  
MAY BE AN ENHANCED AREA OF HEAVIER RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF  
TEXAS BASED ON RECENT CANADIAN/ECMWF RUNS, AND THIS WILL LIKELY BE  
DEPENDENT ON ANY ORGANIZED LOW PRESSURE AREAS THAT DEVELOP OVER  
THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AS PER NHC. FARTHER NORTH, A CORRIDOR  
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IS LIKELY ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT  
THAT WILL BE SLOWLY TRACKING TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE  
MIDWEST, OHIO VALLEY, AND GREAT LAKES REGIONS GOING INTO THE  
WEEKEND. THE TRAILING FRONT COULD POOL DEEP GULF/TROPICAL MOISTURE  
FROM THE PLAINS TO THE MID-ATLANTIC OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS  
SHORTWAVES ROUND THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE.  
MONSOONAL MOISTURE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION MAY ALSO RESULT IN  
SCATTERED AREAS OF HEAVIER RAINFALL WITH IMPULSES AND MOISTURE  
LIFTING ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE.  
,  
IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES, EXPECT READINGS TO BE RUNNING UP TO 10  
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AHEAD OF THE FRONT FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO  
THE NORTHEAST U.S. TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEK, FOLLOWED BY SEASONAL  
TEMPERATURES GOING INTO THE SATURDAY TO MONDAY TIME PERIOD. HEAT  
IS LIKELY TO BUILD AGAIN ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS BY  
NEXT MONDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE BUILDING UPPER RIDGE, AND SLIGHTLY  
COOLER CONDITIONS FOR THE WEST COAST REGION THAT MAY INCLUDE SOME  
JULY RAINFALL OVER THE NORTHWEST WITH HEIGHT FALLS/SYSTEM APPROACH.  
 
SCHICHTEL  
 
ADDITIONAL 3-7 DAY HAZARD INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON THE WPC  
MEDIUM RANGE HAZARDS OUTLOOK CHART AT:  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP  
 
WPC MEDIUM RANGE 500MB HEIGHTS, SURFACE SYSTEMS, WEATHER GRIDS,  
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION, EXPERIMENTAL EXCESSIVE RAINFALL  
OUTLOOK, WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK PROBABILITIES AND HEAT INDICES ARE  
AT:  
 
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST500_WBG.GIF  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST_WBG_CONUS.GIF  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/5KM_GRIDS/5KM_GRIDSBODY.HTML  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/DAY4-7.SHTML  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=ERO  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/WWD/PWPF_D47/PWPF_MEDR.PHP?DAY=4  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HEAT_INDEX.SHTML  
 

 
 

 
 
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