044  
FXUS02 KWBC 131810  
PMDEPD  
 
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
209 PM EDT WED JUL 13 2022  
 
VALID 12Z SAT JUL 16 2022 - 12Z WED JUL 20 2022  
   
..HEAT THREAT TO LOOM OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL U.S.
 
 
...HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT FOR THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES AND  
SOUTHEAST...  
 
   
..GUIDANCE EVALUATION/PREDICTABILITY ASSESSMENT
 
 
THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN ACROSS THE LOWER 48 IS STANDARD WITH  
RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER STATES AND WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE  
SWINGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN TIER. A  
EURO-CENTRIC/CANADIAN BLEND WAS FAVORED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD DUE  
TO DISPARITIES BETWEEN THE GFS AND THE OTHER DETERMINISTIC MODELS.  
A MAINLY 00Z EC/UK BLEND WAS UTILIZED ON DAY 3 DUE TO ATTEMPTS BY  
THE 00Z CMC AND THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE GFS TO SPIN UP A  
CLOSED SURFACE WAVE OVER THE SOUTHEAST COAST. A MORE AVERAGED  
BLEND OF THE 00Z EC/CMC/UK WAS USED TO CAPTURE TROUGHING IN THE  
EAST WITHOUT THE PRESENCE OF A PRONOUNCED UPPER-RIDGE WHICH THE  
06Z GFS SIGNALED ON DAYS 4 AND 5. THE 00Z SUITE OF THE ENSEMBLE  
MEANS WERE INTRODUCED ON DAY 6 AND CONTINUED THROUGH DAY 7 BECAUSE  
THEY CAPTURED THE OVERALL PATTERN VERY WELL WITH TROUGHING IN THE  
NORTHWEST AND NORTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC AS WELL AS RIDGING ACROSS THE  
SOUTH.  
   
..OVERVIEW AND WEATHER/HAZARDS HIGHLIGHTS
 
 
A HOT UPPER HIGH/RIDGE WILL SETTLE WESTWARD INTO THE FOUR CORNERS  
TO SUPPORT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS MUCH OF THE WEST, BUT  
ALSO WITH WIDESPREAD HEAT TO PERSIST DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE CENTRAL  
U.S. AS RIDGING/HEIGHTS BUILD OVER THE REGION. IN THIS PATTERN,  
MODEST MONSOONAL MOISTURE FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE GREAT  
BASIN/ROCKIES UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE MAY OFFER DAILY CHANCES FOR  
SHOWERS WITH SOME LOCALLY HEAVIER DOWNPOURS WITH SLOWED CELL  
MOTIONS. MEANWHILE, A SERIES OF UNCERTAIN IMPULSES WILL ROUND THE  
TOP OF THE RIDGE TO PERIODICALLY FOCUS STRONG BUT MORE PROGRESSIVE  
CONVECTION OUT FROM THE NORTH-CENTRAL U.S./MIDWEST.  
 
UPPER TROUGH POSITIONS WILL SANDWICH THE UPPER RIDGE, BOTH INTO  
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WHERE RAINFALL CHANCES ARE LIMITED AND ALSO  
THE EAST WHERE FRONTS WILL FOCUS SOME RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS.  
MOISTURE WILL POOL FROM THE EASTERN MID-ATLANTIC TO THE SOUTHEAST  
AND GULF COAST STATES. POSSIBLE SUB-TROPICAL/TROPICAL INTERACTION  
OVER THE NORTHERN THE GULF OF MEXICO MAY SUPPORT HEAVY RAIN  
POTENTIAL INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AND VICINITY AS ANY  
SLOW-MOVING AND REPEAT CELLS WITH VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WOULD STILL  
LEAD TO LOCAL RUNOFF ISSUES. ADDITIONAL TROPICAL INFLUENCES ALSO  
REMAIN IN PLAY UP THE ATLANTIC COAST OF FLORIDA TO THE COASTAL  
CAROLINAS THIS WEEKEND AS THE LIFTING OF ENERGY AND DEEPENED  
MOISTURE COULD ACT TO MORE DEEPLY FUEL A RAINFALL/RUNOFF THREAT  
ACROSS THIS AREA.  
 
KEBEDE/SCHICHTEL  
 
ADDITIONAL 3-7 DAY HAZARD INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON THE WPC  
MEDIUM RANGE HAZARDS OUTLOOK CHART AT:  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP  
 
WPC MEDIUM RANGE 500MB HEIGHTS, SURFACE SYSTEMS, WEATHER GRIDS,  
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION, EXPERIMENTAL EXCESSIVE RAINFALL  
OUTLOOK, WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK PROBABILITIES AND HEAT INDICES ARE  
AT:  
 
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST500_WBG.GIF  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST_WBG_CONUS.GIF  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/5KM_GRIDS/5KM_GRIDSBODY.HTML  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/DAY4-7.SHTML  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=ERO  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/WWD/PWPF_D47/PWPF_MEDR.PHP?DAY=4  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HEAT_INDEX.SHTML  
 

 
 

 
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab HPC Page Main Text Page