303  
FXUS02 KWBC 142205  
PMDEPD  
 
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
605 PM EDT THU JUL 14 2022  
 
VALID 12Z SUN JUL 17 2022 - 12Z THU JUL 21 2022  
   
..HEAT THREAT TO LOOM OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL U.S.
 
 
   
..PATTERN OVERVIEW AND WEATHER/HAZARDS HIGHLIGHTS
 
 
A HOT UPPER HIGH/RIDGE WILL SETTLE NEAR FOUR CORNERS TO SUPPORT  
HIGH HEAT ACROSS MUCH OF THE WEST WELL INTO NEXT WEEK, BUT  
PREDICTABILITY IS ALSO HIGH FOR WIDESPREAD HEAT TO ENCOMPASS  
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL U.S. AS RIDGING/HEIGHTS BUILD  
DOWNSTREAM. SCATTERED LOCAL RECORD VALUES ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE  
BROAD AREAS. IN THIS PATTERN, MODERATING MONSOONAL MOISTURE FLOW  
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT BASIN/ROCKIES UNDER  
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL ALTERNATELY OFFER DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS  
WITH SOME LOCALLY HEAVIER DOWNPOURS/RUNOFF ISSUES WITH SLOW CELL  
MOTIONS. MEANWHILE, A SERIES OF UNCERTAIN UPPER TROUGHS/IMPULSES  
WILL WORK INLAND FROM THE PACIFIC AND FROM SOUTHERN CANADA TO  
TRACK OVER-TOP THE RIDGE WITH ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEMS TO  
PERIODICALLY FOCUS PROGRESSIVE AND POTENTIALLY STRONG CONVECTION  
FROM THE NORTH-CENTRAL U.S. AND MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES TO THE EAST  
WHERE A MEAN UPPER TROUGH IS REINFORCED. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL ALSO  
FUEL SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FARTHER SOUTHWARD DOWN ACROSS THE  
SOUTHEAST/FL AND CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES.  
   
..GUIDANCE EVALUATION/PREDICTABILITY ASSESSMENT
 
 
THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN  
TIER STATES AND WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE SPINNING THROUGH THE  
NORTHERN TIER IS CAPTURED REASONABLY WELL BY THE DETERMINISTIC  
MODELS THROUGH DAY 5 AND THE ENSEMBLE MEANS THROUGH DAY 7. A  
GENERAL MODEL BLEND OF THE 00Z EC/UK/CMC AND 06Z GFS WERE UTILIZED  
FOR DAYS 3 AND 4 THOUGH THE EC AND UK WERE FAVORED DUE TO THEIR  
RELUCTANCE TO SPIN A WAVE UP OVER THE SOUTHEAST COAST. BY DAY 5,  
THE 06Z GEFS AND 00Z ECE ARE INCORPORATED INTO THE BLEND TO  
MODERATE THE INTENSITY DISPLAYED BY THE DETERMINISTIC SUITE WITH  
RESPECT TO AN UPPER LOW SPINNING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE  
DE-AMPLIFICATION OF THE NORTHERN TROUGH AND THE OTHERWISE  
QUASI-ZONAL PATTERN IS CAPTURED WELL BY THE ENSEMBLES ON DAY 7.  
 
KEBEDE/SCHICHTEL  
 
HAZARDS:  
- EXCESSIVE HEAT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS, THE MIDDLE  
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND THE SOUTHERN  
PLAINS, SUN-THU, JUL 17-JUL 21.  
- EXCESSIVE HEAT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY,  
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, MON-WED,  
JUL 19-JUL 21.  
- EXCESSIVE HEAT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND THE  
NORTHERN ROCKIES, SUN, JUL 17.  
- EXCESSIVE HEAT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS, THE MIDDLE  
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND THE NORTHERN  
PLAINS, SUN-MON, JUL 17-JUL 18.  
 
ADDITIONAL 3-7 DAY HAZARD INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON THE WPC  
MEDIUM RANGE HAZARDS OUTLOOK CHART AT:  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP  
 
WPC MEDIUM RANGE 500MB HEIGHTS, SURFACE SYSTEMS, WEATHER GRIDS,  
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION, EXPERIMENTAL EXCESSIVE RAINFALL  
OUTLOOK, WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK PROBABILITIES AND HEAT INDICES ARE  
AT:  
 
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST500_WBG.GIF  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST_WBG_CONUS.GIF  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/5KM_GRIDS/5KM_GRIDSBODY.HTML  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/DAY4-7.SHTML  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=ERO  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/WWD/PWPF_D47/PWPF_MEDR.PHP?DAY=4  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HEAT_INDEX.SHTML  
 

 
 

 
 
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