445  
FXUS02 KWBC 311901  
PMDEPD  
 
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
300 PM EDT SUN JUL 31 2022  
 
VALID 12Z WED AUG 03 2022 - 12Z SUN AUG 07 2022  
 
...HEAT WAVE TO SPREAD FROM THE PLAINS TO THE EAST COAST THIS  
WEEK...  
 
...WET MONSOONAL PATTERN CONTINUES FOR THE SOUTHWEST AND GREAT  
BASIN...  
 
   
..GENERAL OVERVIEW
 
 
HOT UPPER RIDGING INTENSIFIES OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. AND EXPANDS  
OVER THE EAST THIS WEEK AS CONVECTION RIDES UNDERNEATH OVER THE  
SOUTH. MONSOONAL FLOW INTO THE SOUTHWEST/GREAT BASIN/ROCKIES STAYS  
ACTIVE AND RE-INTENSIFIES LATE WEEK. AN ACTIVE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN  
WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER STATES OF OUR FINE  
COUNTRY, WITH A LEAD TROUGH AND COLD FRONT CROSSING THE UPPER  
MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST MID-LATE WEEK. ANOTHER TROUGH IS  
NOW EXPECTED TO SETTLE OVER THE NORTHWEST MID-LATE WEEK, WITH  
ENERGY EJECTING DOWNSTREAM INTO THE WEEKEND.  
 
   
..GUIDANCE EVALUATION/PREDICTABILITY ASSESSMENT
 
 
THE WPC MEDIUM RANGE PRODUCT SUITE WAS PRIMARILY DERIVED FROM A  
COMPOSITE BLEND OF NOW WELL CLUSTERED MID-LARGER SCALE GUIDANCE OF  
THE GFS/ECMWF/UKMET/CANADIAN AND GEFS/NAEFS/ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS  
AS WELL AS WPC CONTINUITY AND THE NATIONAL BLEND OF MODELS. THIS  
BOLSTERS FORECAST CONFIDENCE TO ABOVE AVERAGE LEVELS IN THESE  
FEATURES AND THE MANUAL ADJUSTMENT AND BLENDING PROCESSES TEND TO  
MITIGATE LINGERING AND MAINLY SMALLER SCALE SYSTEM TIMING AND  
FOCUS VARIANCES CONSISTENT WITH INDIVIDUAL SYSTEM PREDICTABILITY.  
 
   
..WEATHER/HAZARDS HIGHLIGHTS
 
 
ANOTHER HEAT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MAKE WEATHER HEADLINES THIS WEEK  
FROM THE PLAINS TO THE EAST, WITH DAYTIME HIGHS RUNNING WELL INTO  
THE 90S AND EXCEEDING 100 DEGREES IN SOME CASES TO THREATEN SOME  
LOCAL RECORDS. MEANWHILE, TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE NEAR TO  
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN U.S. FOR MOST OF  
THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS ALSO INCLUDES THE DESERT SOUTHWEST  
WHERE INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN  
CHECK.  
 
IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION, THERE IS A STRONGER MODEL SIGNAL FOR A  
CORRIDOR OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND STORMS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT  
CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY, AND A SLIGHT RISK AREA  
OF THE EXPERIMENTAL WPC MEDIUM RANGE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK  
(ERO) IS SHOWN IN THE MIDWEEK DAY 4 OUTLOOK FROM NORTHERN ILLINOIS  
TO SOUTHERN MICHIGAN. THERE WILL STILL BE PLENTY OF MONSOONAL  
MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S., WITH ENOUGH  
EXPECTED COVERAGE OF SLOW MOVING STORMS TO MERIT ANOTHER ERO  
SLIGHT RISK AREA ON DAY 5 BY THURSDAY ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEASTERN  
ARIZONA. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE ALSO LIKELY  
FOR PORTIONS OF THE GULF COAST REGION TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEK.  
 
HAMRICK/SCHICHTEL  
 
ADDITIONAL 3-7 DAY HAZARD INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON THE WPC  
MEDIUM RANGE HAZARDS OUTLOOK CHART AT:  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP  
 
WPC MEDIUM RANGE 500MB HEIGHTS, SURFACE SYSTEMS, WEATHER GRIDS,  
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION, EXPERIMENTAL EXCESSIVE RAINFALL  
OUTLOOK, WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK PROBABILITIES AND HEAT INDICES ARE  
AT:  
 
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST500_WBG.GIF  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST_WBG_CONUS.GIF  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/5KM_GRIDS/5KM_GRIDSBODY.HTML  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/DAY4-7.SHTML  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=ERO  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/WWD/PWPF_D47/PWPF_MEDR.PHP?DAY=4  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HEAT_INDEX.SHTML  
 

 
 

 
 
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