564  
FXUS02 KWBC 010700  
PMDEPD  
 
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
259 AM EDT MON AUG 1 2022  
 
VALID 12Z THU AUG 4 2022 - 12Z MON AUG 8 2022  
 
***MONSOON REMAINS ACTIVE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND HEAVY SHOWERS  
AND STORMS ARE LIKELY FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE NORTHEAST FOR  
THE END OF THE WEEK***  
 
   
..GENERAL OVERVIEW
 
 
AN ACTIVE UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE  
NORTHERN TIER STATES, WITH A WELL DEFINED TROUGH AND COLD FRONT  
CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES AND THEN NEW ENGLAND BY THE END OF THE  
WEEK. ANOTHER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES BY  
FRIDAY AND THEN TRAVERSE THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY NEXT WEEKEND.  
MEANWHILE, THE CORE OF THE UPPER RIDGE INTENSIFIES ACROSS THE  
CENTRAL PLAINS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND EXPANDS IN COVERAGE BY  
THE WEEKEND, AND THE MONSOONAL PATTERN ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS  
REGION LOOKS TO REMAIN ACTIVE AS WELL.  
 
   
..GUIDANCE EVALUATION/PREDICTABILITY ASSESSMENT
 
 
THERE IS NOW ABOVE AVERAGE FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE  
THURSDAY-FRIDAY TIME PERIOD AS THE DETERMINISTIC MODEL GUIDANCE  
INDICATES VERY GOOD SYNOPTIC SCALE AGREEMENT. HOWEVER, BY THE  
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK, THE 00Z CMC BECOMES MUCH STRONGER WITH THE  
RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTHERN CANADA, AND LOSES  
SUPPORT FROM THE GFS/ECMWF AND ENSEMBLES. THE WPC MEDIUM RANGE  
PRODUCT SUITE WAS PRIMARILY DERIVED FROM A MULTI-DETERMINISTIC  
BLEND THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY, AND THEN GRADUALLY INCREASING USE OF  
THE GEFS/ECENS MEANS AND THE NATIONAL BLEND OF MODELS FOR QPF.  
THE BLENDING PROCESSES TEND TO MITIGATE LINGERING MESOSCALE SYSTEM  
TIMING AND FOCUS VARIANCES CONSISTENT WITH INDIVIDUAL SYSTEM  
PREDICTABILITY.  
 
   
..WEATHER/HAZARDS HIGHLIGHTS
 
 
ANOTHER BRIEF EPISODE OF ANOMALOUS HEAT IS EXPECTED TO MAKE  
WEATHER HEADLINES FOR THE END OF THIS WEEK ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC  
AND NORTHEAST, WITH DAYTIME HIGHS RUNNING WELL INTO THE 90S FROM  
THE CAROLINAS TO NEW ENGLAND. MEANWHILE, MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES  
WILL LIKELY BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ACROSS MUCH OF THE  
WESTERN U.S. FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS ALSO INCLUDES  
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TO THE GREAT BASIN WHERE INCREASED CLOUD  
COVER AND RAINFALL WILL TEND TO KEEP TEMPERATURES IN CHECK.  
 
IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION, THERE IS A STRONGER MODEL SIGNAL FOR A  
CORRIDOR OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND STORMS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT  
CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY, AND A SLIGHT RISK AREA  
ON THE DAY 4 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK IS IN PLACE JUST NORTH OF  
THE OHIO RIVER FOR THURSDAY. THERE WILL STILL BE PLENTY OF  
MONSOONAL MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S., WITH  
ENOUGH EXPECTED COVERAGE OF SLOW MOVING STORMS TO MERIT A SLIGHT  
RISK AREA FOR BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN  
ARIZONA. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE ALSO LIKELY  
FOR PORTIONS OF THE GULF COAST REGION TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEK.  
 
HAMRICK  
 
ADDITIONAL 3-7 DAY HAZARD INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON THE WPC  
MEDIUM RANGE HAZARDS OUTLOOK CHART AT:  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP  
 
WPC MEDIUM RANGE 500MB HEIGHTS, SURFACE SYSTEMS, WEATHER GRIDS,  
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION, EXPERIMENTAL EXCESSIVE RAINFALL  
OUTLOOK, WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK PROBABILITIES AND HEAT INDICES ARE  
AT:  
 
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST500_WBG.GIF  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST_WBG_CONUS.GIF  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/5KM_GRIDS/5KM_GRIDSBODY.HTML  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/DAY4-7.SHTML  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=ERO  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/WWD/PWPF_D47/PWPF_MEDR.PHP?DAY=4  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HEAT_INDEX.SHTML  
 

 
 

 
 
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