529
FXUS02 KWBC 081906
PMDEPD
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
305 PM EDT SAT OCT 08 2022
VALID 12Z TUE OCT 11 2022 - 12Z SAT OCT 15 2022
..GENERAL PATTERN OVERVIEW
AN ANOMALOUS MID-UPPER RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC IS
EXPECTED TO BE NEARLY ANCHORED IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK, AND
THIS WILL TEND TO RESULT IN AN AMPLIFYING DOWNSTREAM TROUGH OVER
CENTRAL CANADA AND INTO THE NORTH-CENTRAL U.S. GOING INTO THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, AND THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY ANOTHER STRONG
COLD FRONT EAST OF THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL HELP REINFORCE THE
AUTUMNAL AIRMASS ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN U.S., WHILE STILL
REMAINING MILD TO WARM ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN U.S. AND THE
SOUTHERN TIER STATES.
..MODEL AND PREDICTABILITY ASSESSMENT
GUIDANCE WAS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT REGARDING THE OVERALL
SYNOPTIC PATTERN DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD. A GENERAL MODEL
BLEND CONSISTING OF THE 00Z EC/CMC/UKMET AND 06Z GFS WAS UTILIZED
THROUGH DAY 5. THE 06Z GEFS AND 00Z EC ENSEMBLES WERE INTRODUCED
ON DAY 5 TO ACCOUNT FOR DIFFERENCES IN THE DEPICTION OF A TROUGH
IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. ENSEMBLES BECAME A MAJORITY OF THE BLEND
ON DAYS 6 & 7, BUT UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH RESPECT TO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS/SOUTHWEST TROUGH. QPF TRENDS ARE INCREASING
AMOUNTS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST ON DAYS 6 & 7 WITH SOME
ENHANCEMENTS OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS COMPARED TO OVERNIGHT
GUIDANCE.
..SENSIBLE WEATHER AND POTENTIAL HAZARDS
AN AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH AND A STRONG COLD FRONT REACHING THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST BY EARLY WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY
PRODUCE SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO
THE GREAT LAKES, ALTHOUGH RAINFALL TOTALS SHOULD BE LIGHT TO
MODERATE. THERE WILL LIKELY BE AN UPTICK IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AS THE FRONT APPROACHES THE OHIO VALLEY AND
THEN NORTHEAST U.S. TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK, AND ALSO FOR THE
GULF COAST REGION AS THE FRONT TAPS INTO DEEPER MOISTURE. THE
LATEST NBM HAS SOME AREAL 2-4 INCH RAINFALL TOTALS FROM UPSTATE
NEW YORK TO MAINE FOR THE THURSDAY TO FRIDAY NIGHT TIME PERIOD AS
DEEPER ATLANTIC MOISTURE IS ADVECTED TOWARDS THE NORTHERN
APPALACHIANS. ELSEWHERE, THE MONSOONAL CONVECTION ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND ARIZONA IS FINALLY EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE GOING
INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH WEAKENS,
ALTHOUGH SOME ISOLATED STORMS MIGHT REMAIN THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
SOME HIGH ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE FOR THE HIGHEST
TERRAIN OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ROCKIES ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.
MUCH OF THE NORTHWESTERN U.S. SHOULD HAVE ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK WITH THE UPPER RIDGE JUST OFF THE COAST,
AND A WARM-UP IS LIKELY ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THIS WILL LIKELY BE
FOLLOWED BY HIGHS ABOUT 5-15 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE TO CLOSE OUT
THE WORK WEEK FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT
LAKES, AND POTENTIAL FOR SOME FROST/FREEZE CONDITIONS AT NIGHT,
MAINLY NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER.
KEBEDE/HAMRICK
ADDITIONAL 3-7 DAY HAZARD INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON THE WPC
MEDIUM RANGE HAZARDS OUTLOOK CHART AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
WPC MEDIUM RANGE 500MB HEIGHTS, SURFACE SYSTEMS, WEATHER GRIDS,
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION, EXPERIMENTAL EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
OUTLOOK, WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK PROBABILITIES AND HEAT INDICES ARE
AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST500_WBG.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST_WBG_CONUS.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/5KM_GRIDS/5KM_GRIDSBODY.HTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/DAY4-7.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=ERO
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/WWD/PWPF_D47/PWPF_MEDR.PHP?DAY=4
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HEAT_INDEX.SHTML
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