729
FXUS02 KWBC 042019
PMDEPD
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
418 PM EDT FRI NOV 04 2022
VALID 12Z MON NOV 07 2022 - 12Z FRI NOV 11 2022
...CHILLY PATTERN OVER THE WEST WITH SIGNIFICANT RAIN/MOUNTAIN
SNOW OVER SOME AREAS...
..OVERVIEW
THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD BEGINS MONDAY WITH AN UPPER LOW OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST WHICH SHOULD AMPLIFY FURTHER AND DIVE SOUTHWARD
THROUGH ABOUT WEDNESDAY BEFORE IT SHIFTS INLAND TOWARDS THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO ANOTHER POSSIBLE
CLOSED LOW OFF THE NORTHWEST COAST LATE NEXT WEEK. THIS BRINGS A
PERIOD OF WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN/SNOW TO MUCH OF THE
WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN U.S. AS WELL AS AN OVERALL CHILLY
TEMPERATURE PATTERN. MEANWHILE, UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SHOULD BUILD
OVER THE EAST WHILE TO THE SOUTH, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE
BAHAMAS NEXT WEEK LOOKS TO MERGE WITH ENERGY OVER THE EASTERN
GULF POSSIBLY SPREADING MODEST RAINFALL INTO SOME AREAS NEAR THE
EAST COAST.
..GUIDANCE AND PREDICTABILITY ASSESSMENT
A GENERAL MODEL BLEND CONSISTING OF THIS MORNING'S 00Z
EC/CMC/UKMET AND 06Z GFS WAS USED THROUGH DAY 5. THE UKMET AND GFS
WERE PHASED OUT ON DAYS 6 AND 7 WHILE ENSEMBLE MEAN WEIGHTING WAS
INCREASED. THE MAIN AREAS OF UNCERTAINTY REVOLVED AROUND THE
TIMING OF THE UPPER LOW MOVING INTO THE CONUS VIA THE WEST COAST
NEXT WEEK. THE DETERMINISTICS HAVE GOOD AGREEMENT WITH IT'S
EVOLUTION UNTIL DAY 5 WHEN EVEN THE ENSEMBLES BEGIN TO STRUGGLE A
BIT WITH IT'S ORIENTATION ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY.
THE 06Z GFS HAD NOTABLE RUN TO RUN INCONSISTENCY WITH RESPECT TO
THE MEAN TROUGH'S PROPAGATION FROM THE ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS
MID-LATE NEXT WEEK. THIS WAS REFLECTED IN THE QPF WHERE THE 00Z
AND 06Z COMPLETELY DIFFERED WITH THEIR AXES OF HIGHEST QPF OVER
THE UPPER-MIDWEST/NORTHERN PLAINS.
THE EVOLUTION OF A DISTURBANCE IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC IS
UNCERTAIN AS WELL WITH A NUMBER OF DETERMINSTIC AND ENSEMBLE MEANS
CARRYING A CLOSED UPPER LOW ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND INTO
THE GULF OF MEXICO NEXT WEEK. WE'LL NEED TO MONITOR THIS CLOSELY
OVER THE COMING DAYS.
..WEATHER/HAZARD HIGHLIGHTS
THE WEST WILL SEE A BROAD AREA OF RAIN AND HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW
DURING THE PERIOD AS THE UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFIES DOWN THE COAST AND
EVENTUALLY MOVES INLAND. BEGINNING MONDAY (AS THIS EVENT SHOULD
BEGIN THIS WEEKEND DURING THE NOW SHORT RANGE PERIOD), THE HIGHEST
PRECIPITATION TOTALS SHOULD EXTEND FROM THE COASTAL RANGES AND
SIERRA NEVADA IN CALIFORNIA THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN AND
NORTH-CENTRAL/CENTRAL ROCKIES. AREAS ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
SHOULD DRY OUT BY EARLY TO MIDWEEK. MOISTURE/ENERGY EJECTING FROM
THE WESTERN TROUGH MAY SPREAD ONE OR MORE AREAS OF PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK, WITH
MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN (OR SNOW DEPENDING ON SYSTEM STRENGTH) ACROSS
PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST LATE WEEK AS THE MAIN
TROUGH/LOW MOVES INLAND. A WEAKENING AND STALLING/RETREATING FRONT
MAY PRODUCE SOME LIGHT RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF THE EAST INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS EARLY IN THE PERIOD AS MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE BAHAMAS SYSTEM TRACKING TOWARD FLORIDA/SOUTHEASTERN COAST MAY
SPREAD INTO PARTS OF THE EAST TUESDAY ONWARD. DETAILS OF COVERAGE
AND TOTALS ARE STILL FAIRLY UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME, BUT SOME AREAS
OF LOCALLY MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL MAY BE POSSIBLE.
MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO EXPAND ACROSS THE
WEST THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEPENING UPPER
TROUGH. THE COLDEST AIR WILL LIKELY EXTEND FROM WESTERN CANADA
INTO MONTANA WITH RECENT FORECASTS CONSISTENTLY SHOWING HIGHS IN
THAT UP TO 20-40F BELOW NORMAL MONDAY-THURSDAY, EQUATING TO
DAYTIME HIGHS IN SOME PLACES IN THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS (AND
BELOW ZERO OVERNIGHT LOWS). SOME LOCATIONS OVER THE WEST MAY SEE
DAILY RECORDS FOR COLD HIGHS MONDAY-WEDNESDAY. IN CONTRAST, WELL
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL OVER MUCH OF THE EAST AND
AT TIMES OVER THE PLAINS. THE EAST WILL SEE TEMPERATURES 10-25F
ABOVE NORMAL ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY WHEN WIDESPREAD DAILY RECORDS
FOR HIGHS AND/OR WARM LOWS ARE POSSIBLE. HIGHS WILL MODERATE NEAR
THE EAST COAST THEREAFTER WITH INCREASING CLOUDS/MOISTURE BUT LOWS
WILL REMAIN UNSEASONABLY WARM. TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE THE
WARMEST DAYS FOR THE CENTRAL-SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH READINGS 10-20F
OR SO ABOVE NORMAL.
KEBEDE/SANTORELLI
ADDITIONAL 3-7 DAY HAZARD INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON THE WPC
MEDIUM RANGE HAZARDS OUTLOOK CHART AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
HAZARDS:
- HEAVY RAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF CALIFORNIA, MON-TUE, NOV 7-NOV 8.
- HEAVY SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL GREAT BASIN, THE
NORTHERN PLAINS, THE NORTHERN ROCKIES,
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES, CALIFORNIA, AND THE SOUTHWEST, MON-TUE, NOV
7-NOV 8.
- HEAVY SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES, MON, NOV 7.
- FLOODING POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES, THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS, AND THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
- FLOODING OCCURRING OR IMMINENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST,
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, AND THE
NORTHERN GREAT BASIN.
- FLOODING LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
- HIGH WINDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES, THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES, THE CENTRAL GREAT BASIN,
THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN, AND THE SOUTHWEST, MON-WED, NOV 7-NOV 9.
- HIGH WINDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN FLORIDA, THE SOUTHEAST,
AND THE MID-ATLANTIC, TUE-WED, NOV
8-NOV 9.
- MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN
PLAINS, THE NORTHERN ROCKIES, AND
THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN, MON-FRI, NOV 7-NOV 11.
WPC MEDIUM RANGE 500MB HEIGHTS, SURFACE SYSTEMS, WEATHER GRIDS,
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION, EXPERIMENTAL EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
OUTLOOK, WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK PROBABILITIES AND HEAT INDICES ARE
AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST500_WBG.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST_WBG_CONUS.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/5KM_GRIDS/5KM_GRIDSBODY.HTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/DAY4-7.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=ERO
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/WWD/PWPF_D47/PWPF_MEDR.PHP?DAY=4
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HEAT_INDEX.SHTML
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