191
FXUS02 KWBC 090710
PMDEPD
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
210 AM EST WED NOV 09 2022
VALID 12Z SAT NOV 12 2022 - 12Z WED NOV 16 2022
...HEAVY RAINS FROM NICOLE MAY CONTINUE ACROSS PARTS OF THE
NORTHEAST INTO SATURDAY...
..OVERVIEW
WHAT IS LEFT OF NICOLE BY THE START OF THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD
SHOULD GET PICKED UP BY AN AMPLIFIED TROUGH MOVING IN FROM THE
MIDWEST. HEAVY RAINFALL FOR NICOLE BY SATURDAY HOWEVER SHOULD
MOSTLY BE EXITING THE CONUS, WITH SOME LINGERING HEAVY RAINS OVER
THE NORTHEAST. DESPITE SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTIES IN THE DETAILS,
AN AMPLIFYING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC/NORTHWESTERN
NORTH AMERICA BEHIND THIS SHOULD HELP PROMOTE RENEWED TROUGHING
INTO THE CENTRAL U.S. AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER MUCH OF
THE COUNTRY INTO NEXT WEEK.
..GUIDANCE AND PREDICTABILITY ASSESSMENT
THE GUIDANCE SHOWS GOOD AGREEMENT, WITH SOME LINGERING DETAIL
DIFFERENCES, IN THE EVENTUAL ABSORPTION OF NICOLE BY THE MEDIUM
RANGE PERIOD OVER THE EAST. AFTER THIS, THE GUIDANCE BEGINS TO
DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY REGARDING A SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER CLOSED LOW
INTO THE WEST COAST AND NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY DROPPING IN FROM
CANADA. MODELS DISAGREE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK ON HOW THESE TWO
SYSTEMS MAY INTERACT AND/OR WHICH ONE BECOMES MORE DOMINANT AND
CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT HIGH RUN TO RUN VARIABILITY. A LOOK AT THE
ENSEMBLES SHOW A WIDE ARRAY OF SOLUTIONS AFTER DAY 5. WPC LEANED
PRETTY HEAVILY ON THE ENSEMBLE MEANS LATE PERIOD IN AN EFFORT TO
MITIGATE THESE DIFFERENCES AND SMOOTH THINGS OUT A BIT.
REGARDLESS, THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT ON A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE OVER
THE EAST PACIFIC WHICH SHOULD PROMOTE ANOTHER FAIRLY AMPLIFIED
PATTERN OVER THE CONUS BY THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.
..WEATHER/HAZARD HIGHLIGHTS
HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE NORTHEAST ASSOCIATED WITH NICOLE SHOULD
BE WANING BY LATE SATURDAY/EARLY SUNDAY. AS THE PARENT TROUGH
UPPER LOW MOVES THROUGH THOUGH, THERE IS A THREAT FOR SOME LAKE
EFFECT SNOW WITHIN THE TYPICAL SNOW BELTS NEXT WEEK OVER THE UPPER
AND LOWER GREAT LAKES. IN THE WEST, SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THE SYSTEM INTO THE WEST THIS WEEKEND, AND
THEN AS THE NEXT TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE CENTRAL U.S.. A
RETURNING WARM FRONT THROUGH THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO MAY
SPREAD SOME RAINFALL INTO THE TEXAS AND CENTRAL GULF COASTS AS
WELL.
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE COUNTRY THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK UNDER THE DEVELOPING TROUGH AND OFFSHORE RIDGE
AXIS OUT WEST. THE COLDEST AIR WILL SPREAD FROM THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTHWARD INTO NEXT WEEK.
MAX TEMP ANOMALIES OF 15 TO 25 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ARE FORECAST
WITH SEVERAL DAYS OF SUBZERO MINS IN PORTIONS OF THE DAKOTAS,
EASTERN MONTANA AND NORTHERN MINNESOTA. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE EAST COAST ON SATURDAY SHOULD QUICKLY TREND
COLDER THEREAFTER.
SANTORELLI
ADDITIONAL 3-7 DAY HAZARD INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON THE WPC
MEDIUM RANGE HAZARDS OUTLOOK CHART AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
WPC MEDIUM RANGE 500MB HEIGHTS, SURFACE SYSTEMS, WEATHER GRIDS,
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION, EXPERIMENTAL EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
OUTLOOK, WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK PROBABILITIES AND HEAT INDICES ARE
AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST500_WBG.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST_WBG_CONUS.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/5KM_GRIDS/5KM_GRIDSBODY.HTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/DAY4-7.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=ERO
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/WWD/PWPF_D47/PWPF_MEDR.PHP?DAY=4
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HEAT_INDEX.SHTML
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