369
FXUS02 KWBC 110700
PMDEPD
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
159 AM EST FRI NOV 11 2022
VALID 12Z MON NOV 14 2022 - 12Z FRI NOV 18 2022
..OVERVIEW
A RATHER COLD PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF
THE NATION FOR NEXT WEEK WITH BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AROUND A
DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED NEAR THE NORTHERN PLAINS/MIDWEST
STATES. MULTIPLE REINFORCING COLD FRONTS/SHORTWAVES WILL HELP TO
MAINTAIN THIS PATTERN. A GULF COAST STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
BRING WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN FROM THE DEEP SOUTH TO THE
EAST COAST FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE, AND THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR THIS TO
DEVELOP FURTHER AS IT EMERGES OFF THE EAST COAST LATE IN THE WEEK.
..GUIDANCE AND PREDICTABILITY ASSESSMENT
IN GENERAL, THERE IS OVERALL GOOD SYNOPTIC SCALE AGREEMENT ON THE
BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW EXPECTED OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL U.S. FOR MOST
OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER, THERE IS STILL SIGNIFICANT MODEL SPREAD
WITH THE TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVE FEATURES, ESPECIALLY
REGARDING NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVES DIVING INTO THE
WESTERN/CENTRAL U.S. ON THE EAST SIDE OF A BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE
EAST PACIFIC. ONE IMPORTANT FEATURE INVOLVES A SOUTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON MONDAY, WITH THE CMC A
NOTABLY FASTER SOLUTION. IT STILL REMAINS TO BE SEEN ON THE LEVEL
OF POTENTIAL PHASING OF THIS SYSTEM WITH A NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL STATES AROUND THE SAME TIME.
MEANWHILE, ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TRACKS SOUTHEAST NEAR THE WEST COAST,
WITH THE LATEST 00Z ECMWF A BIT SLOWER COMPARED TO THE MODEL
CONSENSUS. THE WPC FORECAST USED A BLEND OF DETERMINISTIC
SOLUTIONS THROUGH TUESDAY, BUT THEN TRENDED MORE TOWARDS THE
ENSEMBLE MEANS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD OWING TO GREATER
MODEL DIFFERENCES.
..WEATHER/HAZARD HIGHLIGHTS
AN UPPER TROUGH CROSSING THE NORTHEAST STATES ON MONDAY, ALONG
WITH COLD LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW, WILL SUPPORT SOME LAKE EFFECT
SNOW EAST OF THE UPPER AND LOWER GREAT LAKES, MAINLY EARLY IN THE
WEEK. PARTS OF THE ROCKIES AND INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL LIKELY GET
SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION, MAINLY IN THE FORM OF SNOW, ACCOMPANYING
THE UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT GOING INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
THE DISTURBANCE EXITING THE ROCKIES AND EMERGING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS ON MONDAY IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN BROADER
COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION FROM THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE PLAINS TO
THE EAST COAST. RAIN COULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY FOR PORTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST, AND IT WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR SOME WINTRY
PRECIPITATION TO EXIST FOR THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE MOISTURE
SHIELD FROM NORTHERN OKLAHOMA/KANSAS TO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. IT
WILL TAKE ADDITIONAL TIME TO RESOLVE IMPORTANT SYSTEM DETAILS THAT
WILL DETERMINE THE COVERAGE/INTENSITY/TYPE OF PRECIPITATION.
BROAD UPPER TROUGHING IN RESPONSE TO THE STRONG RIDGE OFFSHORE THE
WEST COAST SHOULD KEEP A COLD PATTERN IN PLACE THROUGH ALL OF NEXT
WEEK, ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS. THE COLDEST READINGS
SHOULD BE OVER PARTS OF MONTANA AND THE DAKOTAS, WITH SOME
TEMPERATURES ON THE ORDER OF 20-30 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL, INCLUDING
LOCALLY SUBZERO MORNING LOWS. COLDEST ANOMALIES OVER THE WEST
SHOULD TEND TO BE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WITH MULTIPLE DAYS OF HIGHS
10-20F BELOW NORMAL. THE MIDWEST TO EAST COAST ARE ALSO EXPECTED
TO BE BELOW NORMAL ALL WEEK, THOUGH WITH SLIGHTLY LESS EXTREME
ANOMALIES. MAINE AND FLORIDA COULD BE EXCEPTIONS WITH NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
HAMRICK
ADDITIONAL 3-7 DAY HAZARD INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON THE WPC
MEDIUM RANGE HAZARDS OUTLOOK CHART AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
WPC MEDIUM RANGE 500MB HEIGHTS, SURFACE SYSTEMS, WEATHER GRIDS,
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION, EXPERIMENTAL EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
OUTLOOK, WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK PROBABILITIES AND HEAT INDICES ARE
AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST500_WBG.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST_WBG_CONUS.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/5KM_GRIDS/5KM_GRIDSBODY.HTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/DAY4-7.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=ERO
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/WWD/PWPF_D47/PWPF_MEDR.PHP?DAY=4
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HEAT_INDEX.SHTML
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page