536
FXUS02 KWBC 112038
PMDEPD
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
338 PM EST FRI NOV 11 2022
VALID 12Z MON NOV 14 2022 - 12Z FRI NOV 18 2022
..OVERVIEW
A CHILLY PATTERN IS IN STORE FOR A LARGE PORTION OF THE NATION FOR
THIS COMING WEEK WITH BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AROUND A DEEP
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED NEAR THE NORTHERN PLAINS/MIDWEST
STATES. DURING THIS PERIOD, MULTIPLE REINFORCING COLD
FRONTS/SHORTWAVES WILL HELP TO MAINTAIN THIS PATTERN. A SHORTWAVE
WITHIN THE SOUTHERN STREAM WILL SPREAD RAIN FROM THE GULF COAST,
ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH AND THEN TO THE EAST COAST. THERE IS SOME
POTENTIAL FOR THIS TO DEVELOP FURTHER AS IT EMERGES OFF THE EAST
COAST LATE IN THE WEEK.
..GUIDANCE AND PREDICTABILITY ASSESSMENT
THE LATEST GUIDANCE IS SHOWING AN ENERGETIC PATTERN WITH MULTIPLE
SHORTWAVES INITIALLY WITHIN THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS THAT
TRANSITION TO A VERY BROAD, PHASED TROUGH OVER MUCH OF THE
CONTIGUOUS STATES. OVERALL THERE IS GOOD SYNOPTIC SCALE AGREEMENT
WITH TH BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW EXPECTED OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL STATES
BOTH THERE IS NOTABLE SPREAD ON THE TIMING, LOCATION AND STRENGTH
OF INDIVIDUAL FEATURES THAT INCREASE BEYOND DAY 4/5, ESPECIALLY
WITH NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVES DIVING INTO THE
WESTERN/CENTRAL U.S. ON THE EAST SIDE OF A BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE
EAST PACIFIC. THE POTENTIAL REMAINS WITH THIS SYSTEM TO PHASE WITH
A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL STATES AROUND
THE SAME TIME. NEAR THE END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD MODELS HINT
THAT A SHORTWAVE MAY TRACK NEAR THE WEST COAST.
THE WPC FORECAST USED AN INITIAL BLEND OF THE GFS, ECWMF, UKMET,
AND CMC THEN REDUCED THE WEIGHTING OF THE UKMET AND CMC BEYOND DAY
4 WHILE INCREASING THE INCLUSION AND WEIGHTING OF THE GEFS MEANS
AND ECWMF ENSEMBLE MEANS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE TO GREATER MODEL
DIFFERENCES.
..WEATHER/HAZARD HIGHLIGHTS
AN UPPER TROUGH CROSSING THE NORTHEAST STATES ON MONDAY, ALONG
WITH COLD LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW, WILL SUPPORT SOME LAKE EFFECT
SNOW TO THE AREAS EAST OF THE UPPER AND LOWER GREAT LAKES, MAINLY
EARLY IN THE WEEK. LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD
ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND PORTIONS OF THE ROCKIES, MAINLY
FALLING AS SNOW INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE DISTURBANCE
EXITING THE ROCKIES AND EMERGING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON
MONDAY IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN BROADER COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION
FROM THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE PLAINS TO THE EAST COAST. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL MAY DEVELOP, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE GULF COAST. ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY,
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME WINTRY PRECIPITATION FROM NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA/KANSAS TO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. IT WILL TAKE ADDITIONAL
TIME TO RESOLVE IMPORTANT SYSTEM DETAILS THAT WILL DETERMINE THE
COVERAGE/INTENSITY/TYPE OF PRECIPITATION.
BROAD UPPER TROUGHING IN RESPONSE TO THE STRONG RIDGE OFFSHORE THE
WEST COAST SHOULD KEEP A COLD PATTERN IN PLACE THROUGH ALL OF NEXT
WEEK, ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS. THE COLDEST READINGS
SHOULD BE OVER PARTS OF MONTANA AND THE DAKOTAS, WITH SOME
TEMPERATURES ON THE ORDER OF 20-30 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL, INCLUDING
LOCALLY SUBZERO MORNING LOWS. COLDEST ANOMALIES OVER THE WEST
SHOULD TEND TO BE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WITH MULTIPLE DAYS OF HIGHS
10-20F BELOW NORMAL. THE MIDWEST TO EAST COAST ARE ALSO EXPECTED
TO BE BELOW NORMAL ALL WEEK, THOUGH WITH SLIGHTLY LESS EXTREME
ANOMALIES. MAINE AND FLORIDA COULD BE EXCEPTIONS WITH NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
CAMPBELL/HAMRICK
HAZARDS:
- HEAVY RAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST, THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, MON, NOV 14.
- MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL
PLAINS, THE CENTRAL GREAT BASIN, THE NORTHERN PLAINS, THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES, THE CENTRAL ROCKIES, CALIFORNIA, THE NORTHERN GREAT
BASIN, AND THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, MON-THU, NOV 14-NOV 17.
- HIGH WINDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF MAINLAND ALASKA, TUE-THU, NOV
15-NOV 17.
ADDITIONAL 3-7 DAY HAZARD INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON THE WPC
MEDIUM RANGE HAZARDS OUTLOOK CHART AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
WPC MEDIUM RANGE 500MB HEIGHTS, SURFACE SYSTEMS, WEATHER GRIDS,
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION, EXPERIMENTAL EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
OUTLOOK, WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK PROBABILITIES AND HEAT INDICES ARE
AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST500_WBG.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST_WBG_CONUS.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/5KM_GRIDS/5KM_GRIDSBODY.HTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/DAY4-7.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=ERO
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/WWD/PWPF_D47/PWPF_MEDR.PHP?DAY=4
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HEAT_INDEX.SHTML
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