662
FXUS02 KWBC 140700
PMDEPD
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
159 AM EST MON NOV 14 2022
VALID 12Z THU NOV 17 2022 - 12Z MON NOV 21 2022
***IT WILL FEEL MORE LIKE JANUARY ACROSS MUCH OF THE U.S. WITH
WIDESPREAD SUBFREEZING HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ACROSS THE
NORTH-CENTRAL STATES ALONG WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW***
..SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW
A RATHER COLD PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF
THE NATION FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH BROAD
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AROUND A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED NEAR
THE NORTH-CENTRAL U.S. AND EXTENDING TO HUDSON BAY. MULTIPLE
REINFORCING COLD FRONTS/SHORTWAVES WILL HELP TO MAINTAIN THIS
PATTERN, AND A STRONG UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHOULD PREVAIL JUST OFF THE
WEST COAST THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE BREAKING DOWN SOME. A WELL
ORGANIZED STORM SYSTEM WILL BE CROSSING SOUTHEAST CANADA ON
THURSDAY, WITH COASTAL RAIN AND INLAND SNOW EXPECTED, FOLLOWED BY
LAKE EFFECT SNOW DOWNWIND OF THE GREAT LAKES
..GUIDANCE AND PREDICTABILITY ASSESSMENT
THE 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE SUITE IS IN GOOD SYNOPTIC SCALE AGREEMENT
FOR THE THURSDAY-FRIDAY TIME PERIOD AND AGREE ON A STRONG
REINFORCEMENT OF THE ARCTIC AIR MASS ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHERN
TIER STATES. THE LATEST ECMWF HAS TRENDED CLOSER TO RECENT RUNS
OF THE GFS WITH RESPECT TO A POTENTIAL STORM SYSTEM OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST WITH NOT MUCH PHASING OF SOUTHERN/NORTHERN STREAM
ENERGY, WITH A WEAKER SYSTEM AND LESS PRECIPITATION INLAND LIKE
ITS 12Z RUN HAD. THE WPC FORECAST WAS PRIMARILY BASED ON A
MULTI-DETERMINISTIC MODEL BLEND THROUGH ABOUT FRIDAY, FOLLOWED BY
INCREASING THE INCLUSION OF THE GEFS AND EC ENSEMBLE MEANS TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE GREATER MODEL DIFFERENCES GOING INTO THE WEEKEND.
IN TERMS OF QPF, A BLEND OF ABOUT 20% GFS/20% GFS/60% NBM 4.1 WAS
USED AS A BASELINE FOR THE GREAT LAKES REGION TO ADD MORE DETAIL
TO THE EXPECTED LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL, AND THEN INCREASED SLIGHTLY
ABOVE THAT.
..WEATHER/HAZARD HIGHLIGHTS
WIDESPREAD WELL BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR
CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS A MAJORITY OF THE COUNTRY TO CLOSE OUT THE
WORK WEEK, WITH THE MOST IMPRESSIVE READINGS ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA
AND MONTANA WHERE HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH INTO THE 10S AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS LIKELY FALLING BELOW ZERO BY FRIDAY MORNING. SOME RECORD LOW
TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN HIGH
PLAINS, AND SOME RECORD LOW MAXIMUMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE UPPER MIDWEST BEHIND THE
NEXT SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR. IT WILL ALSO BE QUITE CHILLY EXTENDING
SOUTHWARD TO THE GULF COAST AND EVEN MUCH OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY RUNNING 10-20 DEGREES BELOW MID-NOVEMBER AVERAGE.
LOOKING AHEAD TO NEXT MONDAY, THERE MAY BE SOME ABATEMENT IN THE
COLD WEATHER PATTERN AS THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO SHOW SIGNS
OF FINALLY LIFTING OUT ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S.
IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION, MUCH OF THE NATION SHOULD BE RELATIVELY
DRY AS A SPRAWLING SURFACE HIGH GOVERNS THE OVERALL WEATHER
PATTERN. LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS LIKELY TO BE PERSISTENT DOWNWIND OF
THE GREAT LAKES OWING TO STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION OVER THE WARMER
WATERS, WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW EXPECTED EAST OF LAKE ERIE AND LAKE
ONTARIO. SOME SNOW SHOWERS ARE ALSO LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
ROCKIES AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE DROPS SOUTHEASTWARD, BUT NOTHING
MAJOR EXPECTED THERE. THERE IS A BIT MORE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
THE POTENTIAL EVOLUTION AND TRACK OF A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE GULF THAT COULD BRING LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN FOR THE GULF
COAST REGION AND THE INTERIOR SOUTHEAST BY THE WEEKEND, SO THIS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED.
HAMRICK
ADDITIONAL 3-7 DAY HAZARD INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON THE WPC
MEDIUM RANGE HAZARDS OUTLOOK CHART AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
WPC MEDIUM RANGE 500MB HEIGHTS, SURFACE SYSTEMS, WEATHER GRIDS,
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION, EXPERIMENTAL EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
OUTLOOK, WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK PROBABILITIES AND HEAT INDICES ARE
AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST500_WBG.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST_WBG_CONUS.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/5KM_GRIDS/5KM_GRIDSBODY.HTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/DAY4-7.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=ERO
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/WWD/PWPF_D47/PWPF_MEDR.PHP?DAY=4
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HEAT_INDEX.SHTML
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