490
FXCA20 KWBC 151900
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
159 PM EST TUE NOV 15 2022
FORECAST BULLETIN FROM 15 NOV 2022 AT 18 UTC: AN UPPER TROUGH IN
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IS SUSTAINING CYCLOGENESIS AND A
SURFACE FRONT THAT EXTENDS ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. BY TUESDAY
EVENING THE FRONT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE INTO
CENTRAL VERACRUZ...HIDALGO...SAN LUIS POTOSI...SOUTHWEST COAHUILA.
ON WEDNESDAY EVENING IT IS EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA...THE
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...CENTRAL VERACRUZ...INTO SAN LUIS POTOSI
AND SOUTHERH COAHUILA. BY THURSDAY...A STRENGTHENING OF A POLAR
HIGH IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS OF THE USA WILL SUSTAIN A NEW
STRENGTHENING OF THE NORTHERLY WINDS...TO ACCELERATE THE FRONT
SOUTHWARDS ONCE AGAIN. BY THURSDAY EVENING THE FRONT IS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS...FLORIDA STRAIG...JUST TO THE NORTH
OF NORTHWEST CUBA INTOSOUTHERN VERACRUZ AND ALONG THE SIERRA MADRE
ORIENTAL/EASTERN MEXICAN PLATEAU INTO SOUTHERN COAHUILA. AS THE
NORTES REACH SOUTHERN VERACRUZ/TABASCO LATE ON THURSDAY...EXPECT A
PEAK IN PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP IN THESE REGIONS ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. INCREASING SURFACE PRESSURES IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL
ALSO ALOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A TEHUANTEPECER LOW-LEVEL JET
STARTING DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY...FORECAST TO PEAK AT 40KT ON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AND START TO DISSIPATE ON FRIDAY EVENING.
A SHEAR LINE IS ALSO FORECAST TO DEVELOP. ON WEDNESDAY EVENING IT
WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS...CENTRAL CUBA INTO
CENTRAL BELIZE. ON THURSDAY EVENING IT IS FORECAST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL BAHAMAS...CENTRAL CUBA...INTO ISLAS DE LA BAHIA IN
NORTHERN HONDURAS. IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION...ON TUESDAY...EXPECT
10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-35MM IN NORTHEN VERACRUZ. NORTES IN
SOUTHERN MEXICO WILL FAVOR 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-20MM. ON
WEDNESDAY...EXPECT 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-25MM FROM SOUTHERN
TAMAULIPAS INTO CENTRAL VERACRUZ AS MOIST ONSHORE NORTHEASTERLIES
ENHANCE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. FROM SOUTHERN BELIZE
INTOCHIAPAS/TABASCO/SOUTHERN VERACRUZ...EXPECT 10-15MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 20-40MM. ON THURSDAY...THE INCREASE IN THE SPEED OF THE
NORTHERLIES WILL ENHANCE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN TABASCO/CHIAPAS
TO FAVOR 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 35-70MM. IN WESTERN
GUATEMALA/TABASCO/EASTERN CHIAPAS EXPECT 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
20-40MM. THE SHEAR LINE WILL START TO STIMULATE CONVECTION TO
FAVOR 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15MM IN THE CENTRAL
BAHAMAS...CENTRAL CUBA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. IN NORTHERN
HONDURAS EXPECT 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-25MM.
IN THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN...A DECREASING TREND IN ACCUMULATIONS IS
EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A MID-LEVEL RIDGE CURRENTLY EXTENDING
FROM SOUTHERN MEXICO INTO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. THE RIDGE IS
FORECAST TO ROLL EAST THROUGH THE CYCLE...GRADUALLY REDUCING ITS
STABILIZING INFLUENCE IN NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA/SOUTHERN
MEXICO...BUT INCREASING STABILITY AND DRYING THE GREATER ANTILLES.
ALTHOUGH AN UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO DEEPEN JUST TO
THE EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES...AS THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE INFLUENCE
INCREASES...EXPECT ENHANCEMENT BY THE UPPER TROUGH TO INCREASE IN
NOTRHERN SOUTH AMERICA AND THE WINDWARD ISLANDS ONLY...AS THE
CYCLE PROGRESSES. IN THE LOW-LEVELS...A MOIST PLUME EXTENDS ACROSS
PUERTO RICO AND EASTERN HISPANIOLA ON TUESDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL
STILL FAVOR SCATTERED PRECIPITATION AS IT PROPAGATES ACROSS THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ON TUESDAY...HAITI/JAMAICA/SOUTHEAST CUBA ON
WEDNESDAY...AND JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS ON THURSDAY. THIS
WILL FAVOR AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND ISOLATED MAXIMA OF 15MM IN
PUERTO RICO AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. ON WEDNESDAY THE WANING
PLUME WILL FAVOR SIMILAR AMOUNTS IN JAMAICA AND SOUTHEAST CUBA.
THE EXITING UPPER CONVERGENT PHASE OF THE MJO IS PARTIALLY
RESPONSIBLE FOR AN ACCELERATION OF THE EASTERLY TRADES OVER THE
CARIBBEAN...WHICH ARE HIGHLIGHTING MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
CARIBBEAN BASINS OF NICARAGUA...COSTA RICA AND WESTERN PANAMA. IN
THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE CENTERS OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS ON
TUESDAY...AND WILL CONTINUE TO VENTILATE CONVECTION ALONG ITS
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY TO MAINTAIN WET CONDITIONS IN SOUTHERN CENTRAL
AMERICA ON TUESDAY. THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO ROLL TO THE EAST
THROUGH THURSDAY...TO CENTER OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BY
THURSDAY EVENING. THIS...AND AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL HIGHLIGHT UPPER DIVERGENCE CENTRAL
AMERICA AND THE SOUTHWEST CARIBBEAN...TO BUILD UP A POOL OF
ENHANCED MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM THE
DARIEN INTO NORTHEAST HONDURAS/NICARAGUA AND SAN
ANDRES/PROVIDENCIA BY LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. AS AN INDUCED
TROUGH DEVELOPS AND TRADE WIND CONVERGENCE ORGANIZES IN THESE
REGIONS...EXPECT ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE TO COUPLE
WITH THE UPPER DIVERGENT PATTERN AND TRIGGER MODERATE
ACCUMULATIONS IN THESE REGIONS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. IN TERMS OF
AMOUNTS...ON TUESDAY...EXPECT 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-35MM IN
COSTA RICA AND WESTERN PANAMA. ON WEDNESDAY...EXPECT 15-20MM/DAY
AND MAXIMA OF 35-70MM IN WESTERN PANAMA. IN SOUTHEAST NICARAGUA
AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN COSTA RICA EXPECT 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
20-45MM. ON THURSDAY EXPECT 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 35-70MM IN
SOUTHERN COSTA RICA AND WESTERN PANAMA.
IN NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA...AN INCREASING TREND IS UNDERWAY AN
UPPER TROUGH LOCATED TO THE EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
AMPLIFIES...AND AS A SOUTHERLY SURGE IN THE WESTERN AMAZON
GRADUALLY ENHANCES MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN NORTHERN
COLOMBIA/VENEZUELA BY THURSDAY. ALSO...NOTE THAT THE LARGE SCALE
PATTERN IS FORECAST TO BECOME DECREASINGLY UPPER
CONVERGENT...WHICH WILL FAVOR AN AMPLIFICATION OF REGIONS OF UPPER
DIVERGENCE FROM SOUTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA INTO COLOMBIA AND
VENEZUELA THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. INITIALLY...ON TUESDAY...A WEAK
SOUTHERLY SURGE IN THE AMAZON WILL FAVOR 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
30-60MM IN SOUTHERN COLOMBIA...ECUADOR AND NORTHERN PERU. ONSHORE
FLOW IN THE EJE CAFETERO/WESTERN COLOMBIA WILL FAVOR 10-15MM/DAY
AND MAXIMA OF 20-45MM. A TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN VENEZUELA WILL
FAVOR 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-35MM EXTENDING INTO TRINIDAD
AND TOBAGO...AIDED BY ITCZ MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. ON
WEDNESDAY...ENHANCED ONSHORE FLOW/ACTIVATION OF THE PANAMANIAN LOW
CIRCULATION WILL FAVOR AN INCREASE IN THE EJE CAFETERO/WESTERN
COLOMBIA TO 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 25-50MM. ELSEWHERE IN
COLOMBIA EXPECT GENERALLY 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-35MM. ITCZ
CONVERGENCE IN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS WILL FAVOR 10-15MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 20-35MM. ON THURSDAY...EXPECT THE HEAVIEST IN WESTERN
COLOMBIA WHERE EXPECT 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 35-70MM. IN
CENTRAL COLOMBIA/SANTANDERES INTO THE VENEZUELAN LLANOS...THE
WANING SOUTHERLY SURGE WILL INTERACT WITH AN UPPER TROUGH TO FAVOR
10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-45MM.
TROPICAL WAVES/TUTT INDUCED PERTURBATIONS/TRADE WIND SURGES
INITIALIZED AT 12 UTC:
TYPE INIT SOF 16/00 16/12 17/00 17/12 18/00 18/12 19/00 19/12
EW 49W 14N 51W 53W 56W 59W 63W 66W 70W DISS
EW 87W 18N 89W 92W 96W 99W 102W 105W 107W EXITS
AN ILL-DEFINED EASTERLY WAVE IS INITIALIZED AT 49W AND TO THE
SOUTH OF 14N. THIS IS INTERACTING WITH A TUTT OVER THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC. THE WAVE WILL MOVE SLOWLY INITIALLY...AND START TO
ACCELERATE ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...ITS ILL-DEFINED NATURE WILL
LIMIT ITS IMPACTS ON PRECIPITATION. IMPACTS WILL BE FELT ON
THURSDAY...WHEN THE WAVE WILL FAVOR 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
20-35MM IN NORTHEAST VENEZUELA AND TRINIDAD.
AN EASTERLY WAVE IS INITIALIZED AT 87W AND TO THE SOUTH OF 18N. AS
IT PROPAGATES ACROSS OPEN WATERS OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC...EXPECT
LITTLE ENHANCEMENT OF CONVECTION IN CONTINENTAL AREAS.
GALVEZ/ACOSTA/CHINCHILLA...WPC (USA)
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