486
FXUS02 KWBC 160700
PMDEPD
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
200 AM EST WED NOV 16 2022
VALID 12Z SAT NOV 19 2022 - 12Z WED NOV 23 2022
***IT WILL CONTINUE TO FEEL LIKE THE MIDDLE OF WINTER THROUGH THE
WEEKEND ACROSS THE EAST-CENTRAL U.S. ALONG WITH CONTINUED LAKE
EFFECT SNOW***
..SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW
A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE
ACROSS THE COUNTRY FOR THE WEEKEND WITH A DEEP TROUGH EXTENDING
FROM HUDSON BAY TO THE NORTHEAST. AN ARCTIC FRONT IS PROGGED TO
CLEAR THE EAST COAST AND RESULT IN A CONTINUATION OF THE
JANUARY-LIKE TEMPERATURES FOR A FEW MORE DAYS. THE DEEP TROUGH
WILL LIKELY BEGIN LIFTING OUT BY MONDAY AS A MORE ZONAL FLOW
PATTERN COMMENCES ACROSS MUCH OF THE COUNTRY. OUT WEST, A COUPLE
OF WEAK PACIFIC STORM SYSTEMS WILL LIKELY MOVE INLAND AS THE UPPER
RIDGE AXIS DECAYS BY SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY.
..GUIDANCE AND PREDICTABILITY ASSESSMENT
THE 00Z DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HAVE AN EXCELLENT
SYNOPTIC SCALE DEPICTION OF THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
CENTRAL-EASTERN U.S. FOR THE WEEKEND. THE MODELS ALSO AGREE WELL
ON THIS DEEP TROUGH LIFTING OUT STARTING MONDAY AND HERALDING A
PATTERN CHANGE, WITH MORE QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NATION.
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY, THE GREATEST MODEL DIFFERENCES ARE APPARENT
ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. GOING INTO EARLY-MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK
AS A PAIR OF PACIFIC SHORTWAVES APPROACH THE CENTRAL-NORTHERN WEST
COAST REGION. BY WEDNESDAY, IT APPEARS THE ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE
GENERALLY A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE AS THE
SHORTWAVE ENERGY REACHES THE ROCKIES AND WESTERN HIGH PLAINS.
THE WPC FORECAST WAS PRIMARILY BASED ON A MULTI-DETERMINISTIC
MODEL BLEND THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN USE OF
THE EC AND GEFS MEANS GOING INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. FOR
THE QPF FORECAST, PARTICULARLY IN THE VICINITY OF THE GREAT LAKES,
THE NBM 4.0 WAS BLENDED WITH SOME OF THE ECMWF AND GFS TO INCREASE
OVERALL TOTALS, AND PREFERRED MORE OF A ECMWF/CMC SOLUTION FOR
WEST COAST QPF.
..WEATHER/HAZARD HIGHLIGHTS
WIDESPREAD WELL BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND ACROSS A MAJORITY OF THE
COUNTRY, WITH THE COLDEST READINGS EXPECTED ACROSS MINNESOTA,
NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN WHERE HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH
INTO THE MIDDLE 10S TO LOWER 20S, AND LOWS IN THE 0S OR EVEN
SLIGHTLY BELOW ZERO FOR THIS SAME GENERAL AREA. PARTS OF THE
ROCKIES MAY ALSO HAVE SUBZERO OVERNIGHT LOWS SATURDAY MORNING.
IT WILL ALSO BE QUITE CHILLY EXTENDING SOUTHWARD TO TEXAS AND THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST THROUGH MONDAY, WITH HIGHS GENERALLY RUNNING 10
TO 20 DEGREES BELOW MID-LATE NOVEMBER AVERAGES. LOOKING AHEAD TO
EARLY NEXT WEEK, THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME ABATEMENT IN THE COLD
WEATHER PATTERN AS THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH BEGINS LIFTING OUT WITH A
MORE ZONAL FLOW EVOLVING.
IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION, MUCH OF THE NATION SHOULD BE RELATIVELY
DRY AS A SPRAWLING SURFACE HIGH GOVERNS THE OVERALL WEATHER
PATTERN. SOME LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN IS LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN TEXAS AND LOUISIANA ON SATURDAY. LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS
LIKELY TO BE PERSISTENT DOWNWIND OF THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH SUNDAY
OWING TO STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION OVER THE WARMER WATERS, AND
THEN ABATING GOING INTO MONDAY. SHOWERS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW ARE
LIKELY TO MAKE A RETURN TO THE WEST COAST STATES EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS THE PACIFIC STORM SYSTEMS MOVE INLAND.
HAMRICK
ADDITIONAL 3-7 DAY HAZARD INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON THE WPC
MEDIUM RANGE HAZARDS OUTLOOK CHART AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
WPC MEDIUM RANGE 500MB HEIGHTS, SURFACE SYSTEMS, WEATHER GRIDS,
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION, EXPERIMENTAL EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
OUTLOOK, WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK PROBABILITIES AND HEAT INDICES ARE
AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST500_WBG.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST_WBG_CONUS.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/5KM_GRIDS/5KM_GRIDSBODY.HTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/DAY4-7.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=ERO
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/WWD/PWPF_D47/PWPF_MEDR.PHP?DAY=4
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HEAT_INDEX.SHTML
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