152
FXCA20 KWBC 141843
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
143 PM EST WED DEC 14 2022
FORECAST BULLETIN FROM 14 DEC 2022 AT 18 UTC: A POTENT UPPER
TROUGH CENTERS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS OF THE USA. THIS TROUGH IS
SUSTAINING A SURFACE FRONT THAT EXTENDS INTO NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF
THE GULF OF MEXICO. ON WEDNESDAY EVENING...THE FRONT IS FORECAST
ACROSS EASTERN LOUISIANA...NORTHERN VERACRUZ. BY THURSDAY
EVENING...IT IS FORECAST ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA INTO CENTRAL
VERACRUZ. AS THE LOW-LEVEL NORTHERLIES NORTH OF THE FRONT
WEAKEN...THE BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO RETREAT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
GULF OF MEXICO AFTERWARDS...BUT CONTINUE ADVANCING INTO THE
BAHAMAS. BY FRIDAY EVENING...THE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
EXTREME NORTHWEST BAHAMAS...SOUTH FLORIDA...CENTRAL
TAMAULIPAS/NUEVO LEON...INTO EASTERN CHIHUAHUA. ON
WEDNESDAY...THIS WILL FAVOR 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15MM IN
NORTHEAST SLOPES OF THE SIERRA MADRE ORIENTAL. ON
THURSDAY...EXPECT SIMILAR AMOUNTS IN NORTHERN OAXACA/SOUTHERN
VERACRUZ...AND CENTRAL GUATEMALA/CHIAPAS...THE LATTER AS
PREFRONTAL NORTHERLIES DEVELOP. ALSO ON THURSDAY...A PREFRONTAL
TROUGH STRUCTURE WILL ENHANCE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN THE EASTERN
YUCATAN PENINSULA...TO FAVOR ISOLATED MAXIMA OF 10MM. PREFRONTAL
ACTIVITY IN THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS AND NORTHWEST CUBA WILL FAVOR
SIMILAR AMOUNTS. ON FRIDAY...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WILL
FAVOR 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-20MM IN THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS.
IN NORTHERN TAMAULIPAS EXPECT 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15MM.
INLAND ACROSS NORTHERN COAHUILA/NORTHERN NUEVO LEON...EXPECT AN
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND SCATTERED AMOUNTS OF 00-05MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 10MM...AS THE RIGHT ENTRANCE OF AN UPPER JET HIGHLIGHTS
DYNAMICAL ASCENT.
ALSO NORTH IN THE DOMAIN...A FRONT IS WEAKENING ACROSS THE BAHAMAS
ON WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO MEANDER EASTWARD THROUGH
THURSDAY WHILE WEAKENING...FAVORING A DECREASING TREND IN
ACCUMULATIONS. ON WEDNESDAY...FRONTAL CONVECTION WILL TRIGGER
00-05MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 10MM...IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHALLOW
CONVECTION.
IN CENTRAL AMERICA...SEASONALLY DRY CONDITIONS HAVE ESTABLISHED.
YET...THE CARIBBEAN LOW-LEVEL JET WILL ENHANCE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE AND FAVOR A GRADUAL INCREASE IN ACTIVITY ALONG THE
CARIBBEAN COASTS OF NICARAGUA...WESTERN PANAMA PRIMARILY.
OTHERWISE...ANY ACTIVITY WILL BE VERY ISOLATED. ON
WEDNESDAY...EXPECT 05-10MM/DAY AND ISOLATED MAXIMA OF 15-25MM IN
EASTERN NICARAGUA/NORTHWEST PANAMA. THIS INCREASES TO 10-15MM/DAY
AND ISOLATED MAXIMA OF 20-35MM ON THURSDAY. ON FRIDAY...EXPECT
SIMILAR AMOUNTS.
AN IMPRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN CONTINUES
TO ENHANCE THE NORTHWARD PROGRESSION OF A MOIST PLUME ACROSS THE
LESSER ANTILLES. THE BULK OF THE POSITIVE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE
UPPER TROUGH AND THE MOIST PLUME IS ALREADY EXITING THE CARIBBEAN
TO THE EAST...AND HEAVY RAINFALL SHOULD NOT BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
ISLAND CHAIN. HOWEVER...THERE IS SUFFICIENT MOISTURE TO SUSTAIN AN
ACTIVE PATTERN OF TRADE WIND SHOWERS AND SCATTERED CLOUD COVER
THROUGH FRIDAY FROM THE SOUTHERN LEEWARDS INTO NORTHERN SOUTH
AMERICA. ON WEDNESDAY EXPECT 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15MM ACROSS
THE LEWWARD ISLANDS INTO SAINT LUCIA. SIMILAR AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED
INTRINIDAD AND TOBAGO. ON THURSDAY...EXPECT 00-05MM/DAY AND MAXIMA
OF 10MM IN THE CENTRAL LESSER ANTILLES...CONTINUING THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING...WHILE MORE ISOLATED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED
ELSEWHERE.
IN NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA...THE LARGEST AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED IN
THE GUIANAS...PARTICULARLY IN FRENCH GUIANA...WHERE ITCZ
CONVERGENCE WILL TRIGGER SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ON A DAILY BASIS.
FURTHERMORE...WAVE/TROUGH PROPAGATING ALONG THE ITCZ WILL ENTER
THE REGION ON FRIDAY...TO MOVE ACROSS FRENCH GUIANA AND SURINAME
THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. THIS WILL FAVOR AN INCREASE IN
ACCUMULATIONS. INITIALLY...EXPECT 15-20MM/DAY AND ISOLATED MAXIMA
OF 25-50MM FROM NORTHERN AMAPA INTO NORTHEAST SURINAME. THIS
DECREASES TO 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-30MM ON THURSDAY. ON
FRIDAY...EXPECT 10-15MM/DAY MAXIMA OF 20-45MM FROM NORTHERN
AMAPA/FRENCH GUIANA INTO COASTAL AREAS OF EASTERN GUYANA. INLAND
ACROSS SOUTHERN GUYANA/SOUTHERN SURINAME INTO BRASIL EXPECT
10-15M//DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-35MM. ANOTHER REGION WHERE DIURNAL
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ON A DAILY BASIS IS COLOMBIA...WHERE EXPECT
GENERALLY 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-35MM IN
WESTERN/SOUTHWESTERN COLOMBIA ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. AMOUNTS
INCREASE TO MAXIMA OF 20-45MM ON FRIDAY AS MOIST WESTERLIES
INCREASE ALONG THE PACIFIC BASIN. EAST OF THE ANDES...MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE IN THE MOUTH OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET IN THE
VENEZUELAN/COLOMBIAN LLANOS WILL FAVOR SCATTERED CONVECTION IN THE
ORIENTE ECUATORIANO AND NORTHERN PERU/EXTREME SOUTHERN COLOMBIA ON
A DAILY BASIS.
TROPICAL WAVES/TUTT INDUCED PERTURBATIONS/TRADE WIND SURGES
INITIALIZED AT 12 UTC:
NONE
GALVEZ/ACOSTA/CHINCHILLA...WPC (USA)
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