276
FXCA20 KWBC 151231
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
731 AM EST THU DEC 15 2022
PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI FROM DEC
15/12UTC: AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 30N 55S INTO GUYANA. PUERTO
RICO AND THE VI LIE ON THE UPPER CONVERGENT SIDE OF THIS TROUGH.
IN THE MID-LEVELS...A RIDGE CENTERS JUST TO THE WEST OF JAMAICA
AND EXTENDS AN AXIS EAST INTO THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN. A TRADE
WIND CAP CONTINUES PRESENT AND IS SITTING NEAR 850-900 HPA. THIS
IS LIMITING VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT...AS EVIDENCED BY SATELLITE
IMAGERY.
THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE THROUGH
THE FORECAST CYCLE. IT IS FORECAST TO EXPAND EASTWARD WHILE
BUILDING...TO FORM AN ELONGATED RIDGE AXIS FROM NORTHERN
GUATEMALA/YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO 25N 55W BY SUNDAY/MONDAY. THIS
WILL MAINTAIN THE TRADE WIND CAP THROUGH THE FORECAST
CYCLE...WHICH WILL LIMIT AFTERNOON CONVECTION IN THE CORDILLERA
AND PRIMARILY ALLOW ACTIVITY IN THE VI AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO
DURING MORNING HOURS...WHEN LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ON A
DAILY BASIS. MODELS ARE NOT RESOLVING ANY SIGNIFICANT MOIST PLUMES
IN THE TRADES. THE LARGEST ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED IN NORTHEAST
PUERTO RICO...WHERE DIURNAL MAXIMA OF 0.1-0.2 INCHES IS EXPECTED
ON A DAILY BASIS. THE LARGEST AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY WHEN
ENHANCED TRADE WIND CONVERGENCE WILL FAVOR ISOLATED MAXIMA OF
0.25-0.35 INCHES IN NORTHEAST PUERTO RICO. OTHERWISE...EXPECT
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS.
GALVEZ/ACOSTA...WPC (USA)
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