927
FXCA20 KWBC 151902
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
201 PM EST THU DEC 15 2022
FORECAST BULLETIN FROM 15 DEC 2022 AT 18 UTC: NORTH IN THE DOMAIN
AND IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A POTENT TROUGH IS PROPAGATING ACROSS
NORTHERN MEXICO AND THE CENTRAL USA. THIS IS SUSTAINING A SURFACE
FRONT THAT ON THURSDAY EVENING IS FORECAST ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA...THE EXTREME NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO SOUTHERN
VERACRUZ. BY FRIDAY EVENING IT IS FORECAST ACROSS THE EXTREME
NORTHWEST BAHAMAS...FLORIDA KEYS...CENTRAL TAMAULIPAS WHILE
BECOMING STATIONARY. ON SATURDAY...A NEW UPPER TROUGH WILL
UNDULATE A SURFACE LOW OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THE
RESULTING NORTHERLIES WILL PUSH THE BOUNDARY SOUTH AGAIN IN THE
WESTERN GULF. BY THE EVENING THE FRONT IS FORECAST ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST BAHAMAS...LAKE OKEECHOBEE...INTO NORTHERN VERACRUZ. ON
THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS...PREFRONTAL CONVECTION WILL FAVOR
00-05MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 10MM. THIS INCREASES TO 05-10MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 15-25MM ON FRIDAY...AND DECREASES TO 05-10MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 15MM ON SATURDAY. IN MEXICO...INITIALLY EXPECT
05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15MM IN SOUTHERN VERACRUZ. PREFRONTAL
CONVECTION IN THE NORTHEAST YUCATAN PENINSULA WILL FAVOR
00-05MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 10MM. SIMILAR AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED IN
NORTHWEST CUBA. ON FRIDAY...EXPECT 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15MM
IN TAMAULIPAS...WHILE A PREFRONTAL TROUGH FAVORS SIMILAR AMOUNTS
IN THE EASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA. SIMILAR AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED IN
NORTHWEST CUBA. ON SATURDAY...EXPECT 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
15MM IN TAMAULIPAS...WHILE FROM SOUTHERN TAMAULIPAS INTO SOUTHERN
VERACRUZ/CHIAPAS EXPECT GENERALLY 00-05MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 10MM
GIVEN THAT LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN MOSTLY PARALLEL TO THE
COAST/SIERRA MADRE ORIENTAL.
EAST OF THE BAHAMAS...A FRONT IS WEAKENING...BUT THE INFLUENCE OF
AN UPPER TROUGH TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CARIBBEAN WILL CONTINUE TO
HOLD THE BOUNDARY OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC...AND FAVOR THE
UNDULATION OF A PREFRONTAL SHEAR LINE. ON FRIDAY EXPECT THE
ILL-DEFINED SHEAR LINE TO FORM ACROSS THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
INTO SOUTHERN PUERTO RICO. ON FRIDAY THE SHEAR LINE WILL GAIN
ORGANIZATION TO EXTEND FROM THE NORTH ATLANTIC INTO THE CENTRAL
LESSER ANTILLES AND THE NORTHERN ABC ISLANDS. ON SATURDAY IT WILL
HOLD ACROSS THE CENTRAL LESSER ANTILLES. IN TERMS IF RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WITH THE SHEAR LINE...ON THURSDAY EXPECT ISOLATED MAXIMA
UNDER 10MM IN THE LEEWARD AND VIRGIN ISLANDS AND EASTERN PUERTO
RICO. ON FRIDAY...EXPECT 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-25MM IN THE
CENTRAL LESSER ANTILLES. SIMILAR AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY.
IN CENTRAL AMERICA...SEASONALLY DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE CARIBBEAN BASIN...WHERE TRADE WIND CONVERGENCE
CONTINUES TO PRODUCE MODERATE PRECIPITATION. THE LOW-LEVEL JET IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE STRENGTHENING...TO ENHANCE PRECIPITATION BY
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. ON THURSDAY EXPECT THE HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION FROM SOUTHEAST COSTA RICA INTO WESTERN
PANAMA...WHERE EXPECT 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-35MM...WHILE IN
EASTERN NICARAGUA EXPECT 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15MM. ON FRIDAY
EXPECT A PEAK IN SOUTHEAST NICARAGUA/TORTUGUERO IN COSTA
RICA...AND IN BOCAS DEL TORO...WHERE EXPECT 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA
OF 20-35MM. IN NORTHERN NICARAGUA EXPECT MAXIMA LIMITING TO 15MM.
ON SATURDAY EXPECT 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-20MM FROM WESTERN
PANAMA INTO BELIZE.
IN NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA...PRECIPITATION WILL ORGANIZE PRIMARILY
IN THE GUIANAS IN ASSOCIATION WITH ITCZ CONVERGENCE AND THE
ARRIVAL OF A TROUGH IN THE TRADES...AND IN WESTERN COLOMBIA AS
ITCZ CONVERGENCE AND WESTERLIES INTERACT WITH THE ANDES. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...THE BASE OF AN UPPER TROUGH WILL FAVOR ENHANCEMENT
IN THE GUIANAS ON A DAILY BASIS. EXPECT AMOUNTS OF 10-15MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 20-35MM ON THURSDAY...INCREASING TO 10-15MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 20-45MM ON FRIDAY-SATURDAY MOSTLY IN NORTHEAST SURINAME
AND FRENCH GUIANA. INLAND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GUIANAS/NORTHERN
BRASIL EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-35MM. ON SATURDAY...EXPECT ENHANCED
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE TO TRIGGER 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA
OF 30-60MM IN COASTAL PORTIONS OF CENTRAL GUYANA. ELSEWHERE ALONG
COASTAL AREAS EXPECT 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-40MM. IN
COLOMBIA EXPECT A GRADUAL INCREASE IN WESTERN PORTIONS FORM
10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-35MM TO 15-20MM/DAY AND ISOLATED
MAXIMA OF 25-50MM BY SATURDAY. INLAND ACROSS THE ANDEAN REGION
EXPECT GENERALLY 05-10MM/DAY AND ISOLATED MAXIMA OF
15-20MM...ALTHOUGH AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY TO INCREASE TO 10-15MM/DAY
AND MAXIMA OF 20-35MM ON SATURDAY IN ISOLATED CONVECTION.
TROPICAL WAVES/TUTT INDUCED PERTURBATIONS/TRADE WIND SURGES
INITIALIZED AT 12 UTC:
NONE
GALVEZ/ACOSTA/CHINCHILLA...WPC (USA)
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