601
FXCA20 KWBC 161208
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
707 AM EST FRI DEC 16 2022
PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI FROM DEC
16/12UTC: MID0LEVEL RIDGE IS BUILDING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
CARIBBEAN. ON FRIDAY MORNING THE RIDGE CENTERS ON A HIGH IVER THE
CAYMAN ISLANDS AND EXTENDS AN AXIS TO THE EAST INTO 20N
55W...COVERING THE ENTIRETY OF THE GREATER ANTILLES. THIS IS
LEADING TO VERY LITTLE CONVECTION AND PRECIPITATION IN THE REGION.
IN THE LOW-LEVELS...A NORTHEASTERLY TRADE WIND PATTERN CONTINUES
ACROSS THE VI AND PUERTO RICO. PROXY VISIBLE AND VISIBLE IMAGERY
SHOW SCATTERES LIGHT TRADE WIND SHOWERS MOVING FROM NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST...PRODUCING TRACE ACCUMULATIONS AS EVIDENCED BY THE SAN
JUAN RADAR.
CONSISTENT WITH THE SETUP OF THE DRY/COOL SEASON...THE RIDGE IS
FORECAST TO SET FOOTHOLD ACROSS THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN AND BECOME
THE DOMINANT FEATURE DURING THE ENTIRE FORECAST CYCLE. THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO LIMIT PRECIPITATION BY THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF THE
TRADE WIND CAP AND ASSOCIATED DRY AIR ALOFT. ACTIVITY WILL BE
MOSTLY MODULATED BY WEAK PERTURBATIONS IN THE EASTERLY AND
NORTHEASTERLY TRADES...WHICH WILL GENERALLY FAVOR MAXIMA UNDER
0.25 INCHES IN EASTERN PUERTO RICO AND MAXIMA UNDER 0.15 INCHES IN
THE VI ON A DAILY BASIS. AS AN UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES OVER THE
CENTRAL/WESTERN CARIBBEAN ON SUNDAY...A TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
AMPLIFY AS WELL OVER AND EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. THIS WILL IN
TERM WEAKEN THE TRADE WIND CAP TO FAVOR MARGINAL DESTABILIZATION
AND A SLIGHT INCREASE IN THE VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT OF TRADE WIND
CONVECTION DURING THE LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
EXPECT SLIGHTLY HIGHER ACCUMULATIONS ON MONDAY AND INTO EARLY
PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK IN ANY CONVECTION THAT MOVES IN FROM THE
EAST.
GALVEZ/ACOSTA...WPC (USA)
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