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FXCA20 KWBC 221237
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
737 AM EST THU DEC 22 2022
PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI FROM DEC
22/12UTC: UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A ROBUST MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER
NORTHERN CARIBBEAN AND NO SIGNIFICANT SYSTEMS PROPAGATING INTO THE
REGION FROM THE EAST...EXPECT GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS
AND VERY LITTLE PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE FORECAST CYCLE. GIVEN
THE INFLUENCE OF THE TRADE WIND CAP AND ACCELERATED
TRADES...EXPECT THE LARGEST ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY CLUSTERING IN
EASTERN PUERTO RICO AND WESTERN VI. ACTIVITY WILL GENERALLY
ORGANIZE BASED ON TRADE WIND DIRECTION. ON
THURSDAY...EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY TRADES WILL FAVOR AFTERNOON ACTIVITY
IN EXTREME NORTHWEST PUERTO RICO...YET LIMITED AVAILABLE MOISTURE
WILL LIMIT THE COVERAGE AND TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS. SLIGHTLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY GIVEN LARGER AMOUNTS OF AVAILABLE
MOISTURE ARRIVING FROM THE EAST. A MOIST PLUME ENTERS ON
SATURDAY...TO FAVOR MAXIMA 0.25 INCHES IN NORTHWEST PUERTO RICO IN
AFTERNOON CONVECTION AND SCATTERED MAXIMA OF 0.25-0.35 IN EASTERN
PUERTO RICO FROM LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE TRADES
THEN REGAIN SPEED...AND ARE FORECAST TO OSCILLATE BETWEEN 20 AND
30KT ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THIS WILL LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS IN
WESTERN PUERTO RICO DUE TO ENHANCED SHEAR AND SHORT RESIDENCE
TIMES...BUT INCREASED TRADE WIND CONVERGENCE WILL FAVOR LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING CONVECTION ON A DAILY BASIS IN NORTHEASTER
PUERTO RICO ON SUNDAY-MONDAY AND IN SOUTHEASTERN PUERTO RICO ON
MONDAY-TUESDAY...TO ACCUMULATE 0.25-0.35 INCHES.
GALVEZ...WPC (USA)
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