088
FXCA20 KWBC 231619
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1119 AM EST FRI DEC 23 2022
..NEXT ON TUESDAY DECEMBER 27 2022
FORECAST BULLETIN FROM 23 DEC 2022 AT 18 UTC: AN ARCTIC OUTBREAK
IS UNRAVELING IN THE UNITED STATES AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST DOMAIN. THIS IS LEADING TO A RAPID-PROPAGATING ARCTIC
FRONT THAT HAS PROPAGATED ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO ON
FRIDAY MORNING. BY FRIDAY EVENING THE FRONT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST BAHAMAS...EXTREME NORTHWEST CUBA...THE NORTHERN YUCATAN
PENINISULA...THE CHIVELA/TEHUANTEPEC PASS...AND ALONG EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL MEXICAN PLATEAU. BY SATURDAY EVENING THE
FRONT IS EXPECTED SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST
BAHAMAS...CENTRAL CUBA...INTO A STATIONARY BOUNDARY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA...CHIVELA/TEHUANTEPEC PASS AND ALONG
THE CENTRLA MEXICAN PLATEAU INTO THE US BORDER. ON SUNDAY THE
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS...CENTRAL CUBA...CENTRAL QUINTANA ROO. TO
THE WEST...A WEAKENING BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL
YUCATAN PENINSULA...CHIVELA/TEHUANTEPEC PASS AND ALONG CENTRAL
MEXICO INTO THE CHIHUAHUA-TEXAS BORDER. AN ILL-DEFINED SHEAR LINE
IS ALSO EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM. ON FRIDAY EVENING IT IS
EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHEAST CUBA...NORTHWEST JAMAICA INTO NORTHEAST
NICARAGUA. IT WILL THEN RETROGRADE WHILE LOSING DEFINITION AND ON
SATURDAY EVENING IT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CAYMAN ISLANDS INTO
ISLAS DE LA BAHIA/NORTH-CENTRAL HONDURAS. ELEVATED SURFACE
PRESSURES ACROSS THE USA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL MAINTAIN A
TEHUANTEPECER LOW-LEVEL JET ON A DAILY BASIS...ALTHOUGH SPEEDS ARE
FORECAST TO PEAK ON DECEMBER 24TH...WHEN EXPECT MAXIMUM WINDS OF
60-70KT.
IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION...THE FRONT WILL FAVOR THE LARGEST
RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN SOUTHERN MEXICO...WHERE ENHANCED MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE AS THE STRONG NORTES INTERACT WITH TERRAIN WILL FAVOR
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. ON FRIDAY EXPECT 25-50 AND MAXIMA OF 75-125MM
IN SOUTHERN VERACRUZ/TABASCO AND NROTHERN CHIAPAS. IN NORTHEAST
SLOPES OF THHE SIERRA MADRE ORIENTAL AND IN CAMPECHE/CENTRAL
GUATEMALA EXPECT 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-35MM. ON SATURDAY
EXPECT 15-30MM/DAY AND AMXIMA OF 50-100MM IN TABASCO/CHIAPAS WHILE
SHEAR LINE CONVECTION AND ONSHORE FLOW TRIGGER 15-20MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 25-50MM ALONG NORTHERN HONDURAS...ISLAS DE LA BAHOA INTO
SOUTHERN BELIZE AND MOST OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN GUATEMALA. ON
SUNDAY...EXPECT A NOTICEABLE DECREASE IN THE COVERAGE OF
PRECIPITATION...ALTHOUGH MODERATE AMOUNTS ARE STILL EXPECTED IN
COASTAL AREAS OF SOUTHERN VERACRUZ/TABASCO...WHERE ACCUMULATIONS
WILL LIKELY REACH 10-15MM/DAY AND AMXIMA OF 20-45MM. IN COASTAL
BELIZE AND NORTHERN HONDURAS EXPECT 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
20-35MM. ALSO WITH THE FRONT...MODERATE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND AREAS TO THE NORTHEAST...ACROSS
WESTERN CUBA AND THE NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS.
INITIALLY...EXPECT 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-45MM IN THE
EXTREME NROTHEAST YUCATAN PENINSULA...YUCATAN CHANNEL AND WESTERN
CUBA...WITH A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE/SQUALLY CONVECTION. FROM
WESTERN CUBA INTO THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS EXPECT 05-10MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 15-20MM WITH A RISK FOR SQUALLY CONVECTION. ON
SATURDAY...EXPECT 15-30MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 40-80MM IN SOUTHEAST
QUINTANA ROO. FRONTAL AND SHEAR LINE CONVECTION WILL FAVOR
10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-35MM IN NORTH-CENTRAL CUBA. IN THE
NORTHWEST AND NORTH-CENTRAL BAHAMAS EXPECT 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA
OF 15MM. ON SUNDAY EXPECT AN UPPER TROUGH TO INTERACT WITH FRONTAL
CONVECTION IN THE NORTHWEST GULF OF HONDURAS. THIS WILL FAVOR
20-30MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 50-100MM IN SOUTHEAST QUINTANA ROO AND
IN OPEN WATERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN YUCATAN CHANNEL. IN WESTERN
CUBA AND ISLA DE LA JUVENTUD EXPECT 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
20-35MM...WHILE IN NORTHERN CUBA AND THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS EXPECT
05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-25MM.
IN THE CARIBBEAN...THE INFLUENCE OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE MEANDERING
FROM HAITI/JAMAICA/SOUTHEAST CUBA ON FRIDAY INTO THE NORTH
ATLANTIC LATER IN THE CYCLE WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS
BY ENHANCING THE TRADE WIND CAP ACROSS THE ENTIRE BASIN. MORE THAN
THE CAP ITSELF...DRY MID-LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR DRY AIR
ENTRAINMENT PROCESSES...WHICH WILL LIMIT THE DEVELOPMENT OF MOIST
CONVECTION FROM THE NORTHERN GUIANAS...ACROSS THE ENTIRE
CARIBBEAN...INTO SOUTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA. ACTIVITY WILL BE MOSTLY
MODULATED BY WEAK PERTURBATIONS IN THE TRADES...AND LIGHT TRADE
WIND SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE LESSER ANTILLES AS FAST TRADES
EXTRACT MOISTURE FROM THE OCEAN SURFACE. YET...EXPECT GENERALLY
VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATION. WETTER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN
SOUTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA AS TRADE WIND CONVERGENCE ENHANCES
PRECIPITATION IN WESTERN PANAMA AND EASTERN COSTA RICA/SOUTHEAST
NICARAGUA. EXPECT A DECREASING TREND GIVEN A GENERAL DECREASE IN
THE SPEED OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET AND WEAKENING OF REGIONS OF
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND CYCLONIC VORTICITY ASSOCIATED
WITH THE JET. INITIALLY EXPECT 05-10MM/DAY AND ISOLATED MAXIMA OF
15-30MM...DECREASING RAPIDLY AFTER.
SEASONALLY DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE IN NORTHERN SOUTH
AMERICA...WHERE THE LLANOS LOW-LEVEL JET FROM VENEZUELA INTO
SOUTHERN COLOMBIA/ECUADOR WILL BE PRESENT ON A DAILY BASIS. AS AN
UPPER TROUGH UNDULATES TO THE NROTH OF THE GUIANAS...MODELS
CONTINUE AGREEING ON THE AMPLIFICATION OF A SURFACE TROUGH THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...WHICH WILL LIKELY TRANSPORT ITCZ MOISTURE NORTHWARD
FROM THE EQUATORIAL ATLANTIC INTO THE GUIANAS. THIS WILL FAVOR AN
INCREASING TREND WITH FORECAST AMOUNTS OF 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA
OF 20-35MM IN AMAPA ON FRIDAY...TO SIMILAR AMOUTNS EXTENDING INTO
COASTAL GUYANA BY SUNDAY. DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL BE ALSO PRESENT
IN WESTERN AND SOUTHWEST COLOMBIA ON A DAILY BASIS. YET..AS PTHE
PACIFIC WESTERLIES REMAIN RATHER WEAK...EXPECT CONSERVATIVE
COVERAGE AND AMOUNTS...WHICH ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 05-10MM/DAY
AND MAXIMA OF 15-25MM RANGE.
TROPICAL WAVES/TUTT INDUCED PERTURBATIONS/TRADE WIND SURGES
INITIALIZED AT 12 UTC:
NONE
GALVEZ/CHINCHILLA...WPC (USA)
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