398
FXCA20 KWBC 271627
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1127 AM EST TUE DEC 27 2022
FORECAST BULLETIN FROM 27 DEC 2022 AT 18 UTC: A FRONT EXTENDS
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS...CENTRAL CUBA INTO NORTH-CENTRAL
HONDURAS/ISLAS DE LA BAHIA ON TUESDAY. AS THE EASTERLY TRADES
SOUTHEAST OF THE FRONT REGAIN SPEED...THE BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO
START RETREATING NORTHWESTWARD. ON WEDNESDAY THE FRONT IS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...CENTRAL CUBA...JUST NORTH OF THE
CAYMAN ISLANDS...NORTHERN BELIZE. ON THURSDAY...THE BOUNDARY IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS INTO THE FLORIDA STRAIT. A
WEAK SHEAR LINE WILL ALSO BE PRESENT EARLY IN THE CYCLE. ON
TUESDAY THE SHEAR LINE IS EXPECTED ACROSS EXTREME NORTHWEST
HAMAICA INTO NORTHEAST NICARAGUA. ON WEDNESDAY...EXPECT AN
ILL-DEFINED BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTHEAST CUBA INTO NORTHERN HONDURAS.
THE FRONT WILL FAVOR HEAVY PRECIPITATION ON TUESDAY...AS 20-25KT
NORTHEASTERLIES INTERACT WITH THE OROGRAPHY OF NORTHERN HONDURAS.
THIS WILL FAVOR 25-50MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 75-125MM IN
NORTH-CENTRAL HONDURAS AND IN ISLAS DE LA BAHIA. IN CENTRAL CUBA
AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS EXPECT 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-25MM.
SHEAR LINE CONVECTION ON TUESDAY WILL FAVOR 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA
OF 15-25MM. ALSO ON TUESDAY...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH PROPAGATING
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS WILL TRIGGER THUNDERSTORMS AND FAVOR
ACCUMULATION OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-30MM. ON
WEDNESDAY...EXPECT ONSHORE FLOW IN BELIZE AND NORTHWEST HONDURAS
TO FAVOR 10-15MM/DAY MAXIMA OF 20-35MM. IN THE BAHAMAS...FRONTAL
CONVEVCTION WILL CLUSTER IN SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST
BAHAMAS...TO FAVOR 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-30MM. ON
THURSDAY...EXPECT 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15MM IN THE NORTHWEST
BAHAMAS.
ALSO NORTH IN THE DOMAIN...A POTENT UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
DIG FROM CALIFORNIA INTO NORTHERN MEXICO EARLY ON WEDNESDAY. THE
DYNAMICS OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO TRIGGER SCATTERED
RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND NORTHERN
SONORA...WHERE EXPECT 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15MM ON WEDNESDAY
THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. ON THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY EXPECT
00-05MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 10MM.
IN NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA...THE MOST ACTIVE CONVECTION IS FORECAST
TO PERIST IN NORTHEAST BRASIL AND THE GUIANAS. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...A TROUGH IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE LINGERING EAST OF THE
LESSER ANTILLES WITH ITS BASE INTO NORTHERNH GUYANA/NORTHEAST
VENEZUELA. INITIALLY...FAST NORTHEASTERLY TRADES WILL ENHANCE
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND ADVECT A STABLE AIR MASS FROM THE NORTH
ATLANTIC...WHICH WILL LIMIT HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION TO BRASIL AND
SOUTHERN FRENCH GUIANA. BUT AS THE CYCLE PROGRESSES...EXPECT A
GRADUAL DESTABILIZATION AND THE ARRIVAL OF A PERRUTBATION IN THE
EASTERLY TRADES...WHICH WILL FAVOR AN INCREASING TREND IN
ACCUMULATIONS. ON WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY EXPECT 10-15MM/DAY
AND MAXIMA OF 20-35MM IN FRENCH GUIANA AND EASTERN SURINAME. ON
THURSDAY THIS SPREADS WEST INTO CENTRAL GUYANA...WHERE EXPECT
05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-25MM.
TROPICAL WAVES/TUTT INDUCED PERTURBATIONS/TRADE WIND SURGES
INITIALIZED AT 12 UTC:
NONE
GALVEZ/CHINCHILLA...WPC (USA)
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