785
FXCA20 KWBC 281432
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
932 AM EST WED DEC 28 2022
FORECAST BULLETIN FROM 28 DEC 2022 AT 18 UTC: AN UPPER TROUGH IN
THE WESTERN USA IS SUSTAINING A SURFACE FRONT THAT IS ENTERING
NORTHERN MEXICO ON WEDNESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY EVENING THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN SONORA...NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA. BY
THURSDAY EVENING IT IS EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS...NORTHERN
COAHUILA...SOUTHERN SONORA INTO CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA. BY FRIDAY
EVENING THE FRONT IS EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN LOUISIANA INTO
CENTRAL TAMAULIPAS/NUEVO LEON. THE FRONT WILL ARRIVE WITH AN
ATMOSPHERIC RIVER WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES EXCEEDING 30MM.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED PRECIPITATION IN
CENTRLAL AND NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA ON WEDNESDAY...WITH FORECAST
AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15MM. SIMILAR AMOUNTS ARE
EXPECTED IN NORTHERN SONORA. ON THURSDAY EXPECT AMOUNTS OF
00-05MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 10MM IN CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA AND IN
EASTERN CHIHUAHUA. IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SIERRA MADRE
OCCIDENTAL AND SIERRA TARAHUMARA EXPECT A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW
WITH TOTAL LIQUID AQUIMILATION OF 00-05MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 10MM.
A SIGNIFICANT DECREASE IN PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THEREAFTER.
TO THE EAST...ANOTHER FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS
INTO CENTRAL CUBA AND THE GULF OF HONDURAS...WHILE STATIONARY AND
STARTING TO MEANDER NORTHWESTWARD ON WEDNESDAY MORNING. BY
WEDNESDAY EVENING THE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE EXUMA/CAT
ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS...CENTRAL CUBA...NORTHWEST OF THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS INTO CENTRAL BELIZE. BY THURSDAY EVENING THE BOUNDARY IS
EXPECTED JUST NORTH OF NASSAU...ANDROS ISLAND...FLORIDA STRAIT. BY
FRIDAY EVENING IT IS EXPECTED WELL TO THE NROTH OF THE BAHAMAS.
THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM IS PEAKING ON
WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS THE GULF OF HONDURAS...WHERE EXPECT
AMOUNTS OF 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-35MM IN ISLAS DE LA BAHIA
AND COASTAL BELIZE/SOUTHEAST QUINTANA ROO. IN THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHWEST BAHAMAS EXPECT 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15MM. ON
THUSDAY...THE RETREATING BOUNDARY WILL FAVOR 05-10MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 15MM AGAIN IN THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS. ALSO ON
THURSDAY...THE REMAINING MOIST PLUME IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS WILL
MEANDER NORTHWESTWARD INTO EASTERN QUINTANA ROO...WHERE IT WILL
FAVOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND AMOUNTS OF 00-05MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
15MM. ACCUMULATIONS ARE RAPIDLY DECREASING THEREAFTER.
IN CENTRAL AMERICA...TRADE WIND CONVERGENCE WILL FAVOR SHOWERS ON
A DAILY BASIS IN THE CARIBBEAN COAST AND COASTAL PLAIN OF
NICARAGUA AND EXTREME NORTHERN COSTA RICA. ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY EXPECT 05-10MM/DAY AND ISOLATED MAXIMA OF 15MM. ON FRIDAY
THIS INCREASES IN SOUTHEAST/SOUTH-CENTRAL NICARAGUA TO 05-10MM/DAY
AND MAXIMA OF 15-25MM.
AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN/EAST OF THE
LESSER ANTILLES. THIS TROUGH IS INTERACTING WITH AMOIST PLUME
ACROSS THE CENTRAL LESSER ANTILLES ON WEDNESDAY...PRODUCING
SCATTERED SHOWERS. THE LARGEST AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED IN AREAS TO
THE SOUTH OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET...OR FROM MARTINIQUE INTO
GRENADA/BARBADOS...WHERE EXPECT AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA
OF 15-25MM THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. BETWEEN DOMINICA AND ANTIGUA
EXPECT 05-10MM/DAY AND ISOLATED MAXIMA OF 15MM. AS THE UPPER
TROUGH MOVES LITTLE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE REFLECTING IN A WELL
DEFINED MID-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS THROUGH THE
CYCLE...EXPECT ENHANCED TRADE WIND SHOERS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
FORECAST CYCLE. ACCELERATED EASTERLY TRADEW WILL FAVOR THE LARGEST
AMOUNTS BETWEEN ST. VINCENT AND DOMINICA ON THURSDAY...WHERE
EXPECT 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-25MM...AND BETWEEN MARTINIQUE
AND GUADELOUPE ON FRIDAY WHEN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 15-20MM. ELSEWHERE
IN THE CARIBBEAN EXPECT VERY ISOLATED CONVECTION...WITH EXCEPTION
OF EASTERN COASTS/SLOPES OF PUERTO RICO...HISPANIOLA AND NORTHERN
VENEZUELA...WHERE EAST-NORTHEASTERLY TRADE WIND CONVERGENCE WILL
FAVOR LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ON A DAILY BASIS.
IN NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA...A WAVE IN THE TRADES IS PROPAGATING
ACROSS THE GUIANAS. POSITIVE INTERACTION WILL PEAK ON
WEDNESDAY...WHICH WILL FAVOR 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 25-50MM
FROM PARA/AMAPA INTO FRENCH GUIANA AND EASTERN SURINAME. ON
THURSDAY THIS WILL FAVOR 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-25MM...AND
ON FRIDAY EXPECT 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-30MM ALONG MOSF OF
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE GUIANAS. TO THE
WEST...DIURNAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED IN WESTERN AND SOUTHWEST
COLOMBIA ON A DAILY BASIS. EXPECT 05-10MM/DAY AND VERY ISOLATED
MAXIMA OF 15-25MM ON WEDNESDAY AND FRIDAY...WHILE LESSER COVERAGE
AND LOWER AMOUTNS ARE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY.
TROPICAL WAVES/TUTT INDUCED PERTURBATIONS/TRADE WIND SURGES
INITIALIZED AT 12 UTC:
NONE
GALVEZ/CHINCHILLA...WPC (USA)
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