924
FXCA20 KWBC 291515
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1015 AM EST THU DEC 29 2022
FORECAST BULLETIN FROM 29 DEC 2022 AT 15 UTC: AN UPPER TROUGH
CROSSING THE CENTRAL USA IS SUSTAINING A SURFACE FRONT THAT HAS
MADE IT INTO NORTHWEST MEXICO. ON THURSDAY EVENING THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS...NORTHERN COAHUILA...SOUTHERN
CHIHUAHUA...SOUTHERN SONORA INTO CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA. THE
BOUNDARY OVER ELEVATED TERRAIN AND WESTERN MEXICO WILL LOSE
DEFINITION AFTER. BY FRIDAY EVENING THE FRONT IS EXPECTED ACROSS
EASTERN LOUISIANA...CENTRAL TAMAULIPAS/CENTRAL NUEVO LEON. BY
SATURDAY EVENING...THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN ACROSS
THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO AS A MID-UPPER RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE
BAHAMAS AND CUBA WEST INTO THE CENTRAL GULF. THE FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED MOIST PLUME WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD
CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED PRECIPITATION IN NORTHWEST MEXICO ON
THURSDAY. THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY EXPECT 00-05MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
10MM IN CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA AND IN EASTERN CHIHUAHUA. IN THE
SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTAL AND TARAHUMARA EXPECT SIMILAR
AMOUNTS...ALTHOUGH A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW IS ALSO EXPECTED.
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY DECREASE THEREAFTER.
ANOTHER FRONT IS WEAKENING WHILE RETREATING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
NROTHWEST BAHAMAS ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL FAVOR ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATION OF 05-10MM/DAY AND VERY ISOLATED MAXIMA NEAR 15MM
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. AFTER THIS PERIOD...A MID-LEVEL RIDGE
PATTERN STRENGTHENS...WHCIH WILL LEAD TO FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS
AND VERY LITTLE PRECIPITATION ON THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE NEW YEAR.
TO THE SOUTH OF THESE REGIONS AND IN THE MID-LEVELS...A RIDGE
EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA AND ACROSS SOUTHEAST
CUBA/SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS INTO 27N 52W. THIS RIDGE IS FORECAST TO
PERSIST THROUGH THE CYCLE...WHILE STRENGTEHING THE ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION OVER WESTERN CUBA BY SUNDAY/MONDAY. THIS WILL
REINFORCE FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
CARIBBEAN...WHERE VERY LITTLE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE CYCLE. THE WETTEST LOCATIONS WILL BE QUINTANA ROO/EASTERLN
YUCATAN PENINSULA ON FRIDAY...AS REMNANT MOISTURE FROM THE
FRONT/SHEAR LINE IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS EARLIER THIS WEEK RETURNS
NORTHWARD. THIS WILL FAVOR 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15MM THROUGH
EARLY FRIDAY. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEW YEAR
BUT IN A MORE ISOLATED FASHION. TO THE EAST OF THESE LOCATIONS...A
MID AND UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE LINGERING OVER THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN AND ADJACENT TROPICAL ATLANTIC. THERE IS LIMITED
MOISTURE FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION. BUT WEAK PERTURBATIONS
IN THE TRADES AND LOCAL OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT WILL FAVOR ISOLATED
MODERATE ACCUMULATIONS. A MOIST SPOT WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE
CENTRAL LESSER ANTILLES...WHERE A MOIST PLUME IS PRESENT. EXPECT
05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-25MM ON THUSDAY GRADUALLY DECREASING
TO 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15MM BY SATURDAY. IN PUERTO
RICO...ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL PRODUCE 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
15MM ON A DAILY BASIS IN NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE ISLAND. IN
HISPANIOLA...A MOIST PLUME MOVES IN ON SATURDAY TO FAVOR
00-05MM/DAY AND SCATTERED MAXIMA OF 10MM INCLUDING MOST OF THE
ISLAND. WETTER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE CARIBBEAN BASIN OF
SOUTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA...DUE TO TRADE WIND CONVERGENCE AND WEAK
PERTURBATIONS PROPAGATING IN THE EASTERLY TRADES. EXPECT
05-10MM/DAY AND ISOLATED MAXIMA OF 15MM FROM NORTHEAST COSTA RICA
INTO NORTHEAST NICARAGUA ON THURSDAY. THIS INCREASES TO
05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-25MM IN SOUTHEAST NICARAGUA AND
NORTHERN COSTA RICA ON FRIDAY...PERSISTING INTO SATURDAY.
IN NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA...AN INCREASING TREND IS EXPECTED IN
COLOMBIA AS WEAK TROUGHS IN THE EASTERLIES ARRIVE ON
SATURDAY/SUNDAY TO ENHANCE DIURNAL CONVECTION. INITIALLY EXPECT
VERY LITTLE PRECIPITATION. THURSDAY ACTIVITY WILL PEAK IN THE EJE
CAFETERO/CHOCO WHERE EXPECT 05-10MM/DAY AND VERY ISOLATED MAXIMA
NEAR 15MM. SIMILAR AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED IN NORTHWEST ECUADOR. THIS
INCREASES TO 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-25MM FROM NORTHWEST
ECUADOR INTO THE EJE CAFETERO AND CENTRAL COLOMBIA BY FRIDAY. ON
SATURDAY...EXPECT AN ADDITIONAL INCREASE TO 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA
OF 20-35MM IN SOUTHWEST COLOMBIA WHILE IN THE EJE CAFETERO AND
CENTRAL COLOMBIA/MAGDALENA MEDIO EXPECT 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
15-25MM. A TROUGH IS PROPAGATING ACROSS THE GUIANAS BUT ENHANCED
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND LIMITED UPPER DIVERGENCE ARE LIMITING THE
POTENTIAL ACCUMULATIONS WITH THIS SYSTEM. ON THURSDAY EXPECT
05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-25MM IN ALL OF GUYANA AND
SURINAMS/NORTHERN FRENCH GUIANA. ON FRIDAY THIS INCREASES TO
05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-30MM ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE
GUIANAS. ON SATURDAY...EXPECT A DECREASE TO 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA
OF 15-25MM.
TROPICAL WAVES/TUTT INDUCED PERTURBATIONS/TRADE WIND SURGES
INITIALIZED AT 12 UTC:
NONE
GALVEZ...WPC (USA)
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