932
FXCA20 KWBC 301617
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1116 AM EST FRI DEC 30 2022
..NEXT ON TUESDAY 3 JANUARY 2023
FORECAST BULLETIN FROM 30 DEC 2022 AT 16 UTC: AN ACTIVE TRAIN OF
RIDGES AND TROUGHS IN THE NORTH PACIFIC CONTINUES TO FAVOR RAIN
EVENTS IN THE WEST COAST OF THE USA AND NORTHWEST MEXICO. THE NEXT
SYSTEM OF INTEREST IS A DEEP UPPER TROUGH...FORECAST TO APPROACH
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA ON SATURDAY AND CROSS INTO NORTHWEST MEXICO ON
SUNDAY. INITIALLY...ONSHORE FLOW IN NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA WILL
FAVOR 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-30MM ON SATURDAY. ON SUNDAY...A
SURFACE FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY THE SYSTEM TO EXTEND ACROSS NORTHERN
SONORA...BAHIA KINO...CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA. ON SUNDAY AND
THROUGH EARLY MONDAY...EXPECT 05-10MM/DAY AND ISOLATED MAXIMA OF
15-30MM IN NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. IN NORTHERN
AND EASTERN SONORA EXPECT 05-10MM/DAY AND ISOLATED MAXIMA OF
15-20MM. EXPECT A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS IN HIGHER
ELEVATIONOS OF THE SIERRA TARAHUMARA.
TO THE EAST...A SURFACE FRONT EXTENDS FROM LOUISIANA INTO SOUTHERN
TAMAULIPAS ON FRIDAY. YET...THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO RAPIDLY LOSE
DEFINITION ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...WITH LIMITED
EFFECTS ON PRECIPITATION. THE ONLY ACTIVITY IN CENTRAL MEXICO WILL
DEVELOP ALONG THE EJE VOLCANICO TRANSVERSAL CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
MEXICAN PLATEAU ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...BUT THIS WILL BE IN THE
FORM OF VERY ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS.
IN THE MID-LEVELS...A RIDGE CENTERS ON A HIGH OVER CENTRAL CUBA ON
FRIDAY MORNING. THIS RIDGE IS FORECAST HOLD AND STRENGTHEN INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHILE IT MOVES LITTLE. BY MONDAY MORNING THE
RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM THE SOUTHEAST USA ACROSS NORTHERN
CENTRAL AMERICA INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. THIS WILL HELP TO
MAINTAIN FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN BASIN
AND CENTRAL AMERICA THROUGH THE CYCLE. THE ONLY LOCATIONS PRONE TO
PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION ARE THE CARIBBEAN BASIN OF NICARAGUA DUE
TO CONTINUED TRADE WIND CONVERGENCE...AND PARTS OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES WHERE THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO
DESTABILIZE TRADE WIND CONVECTION MOVING IN FROM THE ATLANTIC AND
FAVOR ENHANCED VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT. IN CENTRAL AMERICA AND ON
FRIDAY EXPECT 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15MM IN EASTERN
NICARAGUA...AND MAXIMA OF 10MM NN CENTRAL NICARAGUA AND EASTERN
HONDURAS. ON SATURDAY EXPECT SIMILAR AMOUNTS...AND AN INCREASE IN
SHOWERS IN CENTRAL HONDURAS AND NORTHWEST NICARAGUA. AS THE
MID-LEVEL RIDGE STRENGTHENS...EXPECT A DECREASE ON SUNDAY...WHEN
ACCUMULATIONS WILL LIMIT TO SOUTHEAST NICARAGUA/NORTHEAST COSTA
RICA...FORECAST TO REACH 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-20MM. IN THE
ANTILLES...FRIDAY CONVECTION WILL PRODUCE 05-10MM/DAY AND ISOLATED
MAXIMA OF 15-20MM IN THE CENTRAL LESSER ANTILLES...WHILE IN
EASTERN PUERTO RICO AND NORTHEAST HISPANIOLA EXPECT 05-10MM/DAY
AND ISOLATED MAXIMA OF 15MM. ON SATURDAY EXPECT 05-10MM/DAY AND
ISOLATED MAXIMA OF 15MM IN THE CENTRAL LESSER ANTILLES AND IN
EASTERN PUERTO RICO/NORTHERN VI. IN MOST OF HISPANIOLA EXPECT
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH MAXIMA UNDER 10MM/DAY. ON SUNDAY...EXPECT
05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15MM IN ALL OF THE LESSER ANTILLES AND
IN PROTIONS OF THE VI/EASTERN PUERTO RICO.
IN NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA...A TROUGH IS PROPAGATING ACROSS THE
GUIANAS INTO CENTRAL VENEZUELA/NORTHWEST BRASIL. THIS WILL BE A
FOCUS FOR MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. ON FRIDAY EXPECT 05-10MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 15-30MM IN MOST OF THE GUIANAS. ISOLATED SIMILAR AMOUNTS
ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE NET IN SOUTHERN VENEZUELA INTO SOUTHEAST
COLOMBIA/EASTERN PERU. ON SATURDAY...IMPROVED VENTILATION WILL
FAVOR AN INCREASE IN THE COVERAGE OF DIURNAL CONVECTION IN
RORAIMA/AMAZONAS IN BRASIL AND IN SOUTHERN VENEZUELA AND WESTERN
GUYANA...WHERE EXPECT 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-35MM. AN
ACTIVATION IS ALSO EXPECTED IN COLOMBIA...PARTIALLY FAVORED BY
INCREASINGLY UPPER DIVERGENT CONDITIONS AS A KELVIN WAVE AND THE
UPPER DIVERGENT PHASE OF THE MJO APPROACH THE REGION. ON FRIDAY
EXPECT 05-10MM/DAY AND ISOLATED MAXIMA OF 15-25MM FROM THE EJE
CAFETERO/CENTRAL COLOMBIA SOUTH INTO NORTHWEST ECUADOR. THIS
INCREASES TO 10-15MM/DAY AND SCATTERED MAXIMA OF 20-35MM FOR
SOUTHWEST COLOMBIA AND THE EJE CAFETERO ON SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...AND TO 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-25MM IN THE MAGDALENA
MEDIO/CENTRAL COLOMBIA.
TROPICAL WAVES/TUTT INDUCED PERTURBATIONS/TRADE WIND SURGES
INITIALIZED AT 12 UTC:
NONE
GALVEZ...WPC (USA)
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